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61.
In the past several decades, many ranking‐and‐selection (R&S) procedures have been developed to select the best simulated system with the largest (or smallest) mean performance measure from a finite number of alternatives. A major issue to address in these R&S problems is to balance the trade‐off between the effectiveness (ie, making a correct selection with a high probability) and the efficiency (ie, using a small total number of observations). In this paper, we take a frequentist's point of view by setting a predetermined probability of correct selection while trying to reduce the total sample size, that is, to improve the efficiency but also maintain the effectiveness. In particular, in order to achieve this goal, we investigate combining various variance reduction techniques into the fully sequential framework, resulting in different R&S procedures with either finite‐time or asymptotic statistical validity. Extensive numerical experiments show great improvement in the efficiency of our proposed procedures as compared with several existing procedures. 相似文献
62.
Augmented nested sampling for stochastic programs with recourse and endogenous uncertainty 下载免费PDF全文
We propose a novel simulation‐based approach for solving two‐stage stochastic programs with recourse and endogenous (decision dependent) uncertainty. The proposed augmented nested sampling approach recasts the stochastic optimization problem as a simulation problem by treating the decision variables as random. The optimal decision is obtained via the mode of the augmented probability model. We illustrate our methodology on a newsvendor problem with stock‐dependent uncertain demand both in single and multi‐item (news‐stand) cases. We provide performance comparisons with Markov chain Monte Carlo and traditional Monte Carlo simulation‐based optimization schemes. Finally, we conclude with directions for future research. 相似文献
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建立扩频信号防混叠滤波、采样、量化与解扩输出关系的数学解析模型,推导得到解扩输出信噪比的解析表达式。分析与仿真表明,当量化位数大于等于4 bit,解扩得到总的信噪比损失可以分解为由量化引起的损失和滤波加采样引起损失的乘积,且量化器最优限幅系数只与量化位数相关;当量化位数小于4 bit时,信噪比损失在一定条件下可近似为量化损失和滤波加采样损失的乘积。当量化位数大于4 bit、滤波器带宽大于5倍码率、采样频率大于4倍码率时,再增大上述参数引起的信噪比损失波动小于0.05 dB,对解扩性能提升不明显。该结论可为实用型全球导航卫星系统接收机前端离散化处理优化设计提供理论指导。 相似文献
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Ikuo Arizono Akihiro Kanagawa Hiroshi Ohta Kyouko Watakabe Kouji Tateishi 《海军后勤学研究》1997,44(6):591-603
Taguchi has presented an approach to quality improvement in which reduction of deviation from the target value is the guiding principle. In this approach any measured value x of a product characteristic X brings a loss to consumer in general, where the loss is expressed as a quadratic form with respect to the difference between the measured value x and the target value T of a product characteristic. Then, it is natural to reject the lot which may bring a large loss to consumer. This concept induces us to construct new variable sampling plans based on the Taguchi's loss criterion. In this article, a design procedure of the sampling plans for assuring the loss in the Taguchi's method is proposed. Some numerical results based on the proposed design procedures are illustrated. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 44: 591–603 (1997) 相似文献
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Quantile is an important quantity in reliability analysis, as it is related to the resistance level for defining failure events. This study develops a computationally efficient sampling method for estimating extreme quantiles using stochastic black box computer models. Importance sampling has been widely employed as a powerful variance reduction technique to reduce estimation uncertainty and improve computational efficiency in many reliability studies. However, when applied to quantile estimation, importance sampling faces challenges, because a good choice of the importance sampling density relies on information about the unknown quantile. We propose an adaptive method that refines the importance sampling density parameter toward the unknown target quantile value along the iterations. The proposed adaptive scheme allows us to use the simulation outcomes obtained in previous iterations for steering the simulation process to focus on important input areas. We prove some convergence properties of the proposed method and show that our approach can achieve variance reduction over crude Monte Carlo sampling. We demonstrate its estimation efficiency through numerical examples and wind turbine case study. 相似文献
68.
复杂网络环境中对网络波动的准确预测可以有效监测网络环境,防范网络入侵和拥堵。由于在复杂网络受到干扰的可能性更大,其网络波动具有扩展衍射特征,不可预测性强。传统方法中采用自回归移动平均模型进行复杂网络波形预测算法设计,在波动信号的时频重叠调制过程中未能纳入杂波先验信息,波动序列的扩展衍射特征形成欠定采样,预测效果不好。提出基于空间扩展自回归移动平均模型的复杂网络波动欠定预测算法,采用LTE线性均衡滤波,进行降噪去除杂波干扰,提取波动序列的扩展衍射特征形成欠定采样样本序列,设计网络波动时空序列扩展衍射点阵,准确预测网络波动的参数信息。以病毒入侵,网络监听和拥塞堵塞等波动产生模型为实例,进行仿真实验,结果表明该算法具有较高预测精度,监测点波动误差较小,实现复杂网络波动状态的动态跟踪和评估。 相似文献
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为实现UWB雷达中的高速数据采集,本文从理论上探讨了中频/射频直接采样和数字正交技术对大带宽信号(≥10MHz)进行相干检波的可行性。对三种数字正交途径进行的计算机仿真表明:正交双路的幅相一致性大大提高了,当信号带宽≤20MHz时,镜频抑制效果优于传统模拟方式(<-30dB)。 相似文献
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