基于联系数的电子装备体系效能倍增效应分析

提出了基于联系数的电子装备系统和体系作战效能倍增效应分析新方法。首先介绍了联系数的定义与数学运算,其次提出以基于作战能力指数的同异联系数来描述电子装备的作战效能,并根据不确定系数的取值分别对电子装备系统和体系的作战效能倍增效应进行了分析,最后基于侦察装备对目标的侦察能力进行了实例分析,结果表明该方法合理可行。     

Newsvendor bounds and heuristics for serial supply chains with regular and expedited shipping

We study an infinite‐horizon, N‐stage, serial production/inventory system with two transportation modes between stages: regular shipping and expedited shipping. The optimal inventory policy for this system is a top–down echelon base‐stock policy, which can be computed through minimizing 2N nested convex functions recursively (Lawson and Porteus, Oper Res 48 (2000), 878–893). In this article, we first present some structural properties and comparative statics for the parameters of the optimal inventory policies, we then derive simple, newsvendor‐type lower and upper bounds for the optimal control parameters. These results are used to develop near optimal heuristic solutions for the echelon base‐stock policies. Numerical studies show that the heuristic performs well. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

高级在轨系统的自相似业务量预测链路优化模型

在AOS高级在轨系统链路协议的基础上,分析了具有自相似特性的业务流量,提出了一种基于FARIMA模型的自相似预测的链路优化模型。该预测模型基于分数阶统计理论,在估计赫斯特参数的基础上,根据不同的时间粒度,提前预测突发业务量的到来,从而降低了网络丢包率。仿真表明模型在20点预测内具有较好拟合性,在一定置信区间下具有较好的预测成功概率和较低的虚警概率,同时使网络丢包率大幅下降。     

高陡度非球面磨削亚表面损伤深度规律

具有高陡度非球面特性的光学元件可以明显改善光学系统的空气动力学性能,从而提升和优化系统综合性能。磨削加工方法可以作为此类元件的前期加工工序,而磨削难免会造成零件的亚表面损伤,且在这种高陡度非球面磨削加工中磨削参数是实时变化的,造成整个工件亚表面损伤深度不一致。针对这种情况,建立亚表面损伤预测模型,并结合半球形砂轮磨削的特点,通过理论计算预测非球面磨削亚表面损伤深度分布规律。在此基础上,以热压多晶氟化镁平面为对象进行模拟参数实验,通过磁流变抛斑点法得到各组参数下亚表面损伤深度情况,结果显示损伤深度范围在12.79μm~20.96μm之间,且沿试件半径方向由内向外呈增大趋势,结果与预测模型相吻合。     

The Production and Deposition of the Guisborough Helmet

In September 1878 the British Museum received a donation of a folded metal plate which had been embossed and gilded. Restoration of the object revealed that the folded plate was in fact the outer casing of a Roman copper alloy cavalry sports type helmet which dates to the late second or third century AD. The story of what became known as the Guisborough helmet began 14 years earlier in what was then the North Riding of Yorkshire when workers employed by the Cleveland Railway Company discovered a ‘very curious plate of metal’ during road construction. It appears that the helmet was deliberately prepared for deposition and buried at a depth of c30 cm close to a stream. Examination by the authors suggests that this was a high value item that had been repaired many times. Experimental evidence suggests that the decoration alone required approximately 16 h to fashion.     

基于网络结构的武器装备体系能力分析

现代战争以及从"平台为中心"转向以"网络为中心",强调的是通过各类武器平台通过相互之间的协作配合而形成作战网络来实现体系能力。从宏观和微观两个角度分析了武器装备体系能力的实现机理,构建了武器装备体系的作战网络结构模型,给出了作战网络结构模型中的节点类型和关系类型,提出了能力环的概念,从作战网络结构的角度对武器装备体系的整体能力进行了分析,并给出了具体算例。     

一类非线性系统的自适应模糊反推近似滑模控制

针对一类含有未知非线性函数项和外界干扰的不确定纯反馈非线性系统,提出了一种自适应模糊反推近似滑模变结构控制方法。采用中值定理和隐函数定理使未知非仿射输入函数拥有显式的控制输入,利用模糊系统逼近未知非线性函数,动态面控制技术解决了反推设计中出现的"微分爆炸"问题。所提出的自适应近似滑模控制方案削弱了传统滑模控制中的抖振现象。从理论上证明了所设计的控制器能够保证闭环系统所有信号半全局一致终结有界。仿真算例验证了算法的有效性。     

COSMIC 掩星反演的水汽廓线质量分析

利用2006—2012年北半球冬季低纬度地区(30°S~30°N)无线电探空站数据及全球大气成分和气候监测再分析数据对1000 h Pa~200 h Pa高度层的气象、电离层与气候星座观测系统全球定位系统掩星反演的比湿廓线进行了精度和可靠性验证。结果表明,水汽对气象、电离层与气候星座观测系统掩星反演影响较大,尤其在中、低对流层及热带地区等水汽含量比较大的地区,且气象、电离层与气候星座观测系统掩星数据在850 hpa以下可能并不太适用于评估其他数据。     

Nuclear deterrence and cyber warfare: coexistence or competition?

Nuclear deterrence and cyber war seem almost antithetical in their respective intellectual pedigrees. Nuclear weapons are unique in their ability to create mass destruction in a short time. Information or “cyber” weapons, at least for the most part, aim at sowing confusion or mass disruption instead of widespread physical destruction. Nevertheless, there are some intersections between cyber and nuclear matters, and these have the potential to become troublesome for the future of nuclear deterrence. For example, cyber attacks might complicate the management of a nuclear crisis. As well, information attacks on command-control and communications systems might lead to a mistaken nuclear launch based on false warnings, to erroneous interpretations of data or to panic on account of feared information blackout. It is not inconceivable that future nuclear strike planning will include a preliminary wave of cyber strikes or at least a more protracted “preparation of the battlefield” by roaming through enemy networks to plant malware or map vulnerabilities.     

Sharp bounds for the reliability of systems and mixtures with ordered components

In this article, we study how to derive bounds for the reliability and the expected lifetime of a coherent system with heterogeneous ordered components. These bounds can be used to compare the performance of the systems obtained by permuting the components at a given system structure, that is, to study where we should place the different components at a system structure to get the most reliable system. Moreover, a similar procedure is applied to get bounds for mixtures and for the generalized proportional hazard rate model when the baseline populations are ordered. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 64: 108–116, 2017