ANALYSIS OF CONFLICT WITHIN A CONTESTED LAND: THE CASE OF KASHMIR

This paper considers the case of Kashmir to examine the relation between the people of the contested land (Indian-occupied Kashmir) and one of the nation states claiming it (India, in this case) in a game-theoretic framework. The motivation for this paper was whether it was possible to rationalize the lack of democratic space in Kashmir, relative to other states in India (especially since the founding fathers of the country had announced such democratic practices to be the guiding principles of the new nation) and at the same time, a highly rigid stance of the Indian Government on the Kashmir issue. An otherwise standard political economic model is used to capture how the way in which citizens determine their allegiance to one or the other nation state (India or Pakistan) can, in turn, affect the nation state's (India's) policies towards the contested land. I conclude that if the Indian Government perceives allegiance of the citizens to be determined primarily by partisan preferences of the citizens, not so much by their preferences for policies, then the government rationally concentrates on minimizing its disutility due to deviations from its ‘most-favorite' policy. This understanding rationalizes the policies of the Indian Government towards Kashmir. More importantly, it points towards areas that need consideration for any peace-making process to take-off.     

The International Conference on the Great Lakes Region

In April 2012 a number of former rebels who had been integrated into the Forces Armées de la République Démocratique du Congo (FARDC) mutinied and formed the Movement of March 23, better know as the M23 rebel group. The International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR) has been mediating between Kinshasa and the M23 rebel group since 2012, without much success. In August 2013, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) issued a communiqué after its 33rd Summit of Heads of State and Government, stating that while it commends the ICGLR efforts, the talks have become protracted and a deadline needs to be set. The summit also called for an urgent joint ICGLR–SADC summit to address the crisis in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). In addition to this development, the chair of the ICGLR is to be rotated in December 2013, when President José Eduardo Dos Santos of Angola replaces President Yoweri Museveni of Uganda. To date, the mediation has been headed by Uganda and this has raised concerns over the credibility of the ICGLR-led process, since Uganda has been accused of supporting the M23 rebellion in a report released in November 2012 by the United Nations Group of Experts on the DRC. One could question whether the Angolan leadership will bring anything new that could have an impact on the crisis. Many expect that the perceived neutrality that Dos Santos could bring to the negotiations may be a positive step towards reviving the talks that have all but stalled at this point. Another issue of interest is whether the joint ICGLR–SADC summit could instil new life into the mediation process.     

BUSTING OUT

This report explores Iranian popular opinion on the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) and the determinants of Iranian attitudes. Using data from a 2008 survey of 710 Iranians administered by the University of Maryland's Program on International Policy Attitudes, we find that that a significant minority of Iranians (10 percent in 2006 and 14 percent in 2008) would prefer that Iran withdraw from the NPT. Our statistical analysis shows that Iranians who fear a US attack on Iranian nuclear facilities and distrust the International Atomic Energy Agency are more likely to want to quit the NPT. We therefore argue that those who do not trust other nations are most likely to oppose the NPT.     

THE NPT

This article assesses the successes and failures of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) since its creation in 1968 by developing and applying a set of “metrics” to each of the NPT's substantive articles as well as to its withdrawal provisions. In light of this analysis, the article also puts forward some specific proposals for strengthening the NPT and its implementation, with a view to the debate and decisions at the upcoming 2010 NPT Review Conference. A concluding section turns explicitly to the 2010 NPT Review Conference and proposes pursuit of agreement on three NPT Action Plans: one for nonproliferation, one for peaceful uses, and one for nuclear disarmament. Combining vision and practicable steps, these Action Plans would set out a roadmap for action between the 2010 and the 2015 NPT Review Conferences. They could provide a foundation for substantive exchanges—in this case, on progress toward their implementation—during the preparations for the 2015 conference.     

基于混响室的雷达回波传输环境模拟

为检验雷达回波传输质量,完成基于莱斯因子K的混响室电磁环境分级,提出混响室条件下雷达回波传输环境模拟评价参数信杂比S,对比分析莱斯因子K和信杂比S的测量原理．实验结果表明：混响室可用于雷达回波传输环境模拟．     

基于ExtendSim的高炮群作战效能仿真分析

构建了高炮部队抗空袭作战仿真流程,并在特定作战条件下基于ExtendSim建立了高炮群雷达诸元法抗击敌空袭目标的作战仿真模型,对火控雷达组网工作模式下的扇形和线性配置的高炮群作战效能进行了仿真分析,结果表明在火控雷达组网模式下,高炮群整体探测范围增大,作战反应时间延长,提高了部队作战效能。     

直升机引导条件下舰载反舰导弹超视距攻击仿真

为了分析直升机引导条件下舰载反舰导弹对目标超视距攻击产生的射击影响。分析了舰载直升机引导误差、发射舰艇定位误差、目标机动误差、导弹飞行误差等对导弹超视距攻击的影响,构建导弹超视距攻击仿真模型,并开发仿真实验平台,通过仿真实验平台分析和检验不同误差条件下导弹超视距攻击效果,为部队进行战法、训法提供训练平台,解决部队针对性训练的难题。     

带局部交流函数及自由意志的单领导Cucker-Smale模型的渐近集群分析

为研究集群的形成与否和半径大小之间的关系,主要考虑了具有单个领导的一般等级结构及其领导者速度不变的Cucker-Smale模型。探讨了自由意志对集群产生的影响,通过证明可以给出半径有下界的充分条件(下界和速度差、粒子数、通信强度等有关)。当半径大于下界时,会产生集群。通过MATLAB数值仿真验证了相关结论。     

火灾公众责任保险与消防治理问题研究

阐述了火灾公众责任保险的涵义,分析了火灾公众责任保险在消防治理中的作用,梳理了火灾公众责任保险的发展现状问题,进而提出消防治理视阈下火灾公众责任保险的发展思路。     

公安现役部队危机传播中的人本思想研究

科学的危机传播包括危机预警传播、危机应急传播和危机善后传播.公安现役部队危机预警传播应以人为本,常态化传播危机预警信息;危机应急传播应体现人文关怀;危机善后传播应进行社会心理疏导,发掘并弘扬人性的善与美.