评估指标体系的简化研究与应用

建立评估指标体系是一种解决复杂问题评估的常见方法.为避免指标体系过于庞大,评估过程过于复杂,指标体系简化有着非常重要的意义.采用权重系数法和极大不相关法可以有效地对指标体系进行简化.通过对集团军装备保障能力评估指标体系简化的实例分析,表明所提出的方法较好地解决了简化和全面的矛盾.确保了评估的科学性.     

软件系统的可靠性综合评估模型研究*

主要研究了软件系统可靠性的评估方法。基于软件系统的基本结构和体系,对软件系统层次可靠性进行分析,并对影响可靠性的因素进行了分析;根据各分系统失效对整体系统失效影响程度的大小,通过事件测试分析得到实际参数,在给出重要度系数的基础上,建立了串并联系统间权重系数模型,并通过Bayes分析建立了软件系统的可靠性综合评估模型,从而达到对软件系统可靠性综合评估的目的。算例表明该可靠性综合评估模型具有一定的工程应用价值。     

Statistical Analysis as an Adjunct to Historical Research: Identification of the Likely Manufacturers of British Pattern 1907 Bayonets Supplied by the Birmingham Small Arms Company to the Siamese Government in 1920

In 1920, the Birmingham Small Arms Company supplied 10,000 Pattern 1907 bayonets to the government of Siam to accompany an order for rifles. The original maker of these bayonets was unknown, but historical research indicates that the Wilkinson Sword Co. Ltd. was a primary maker. The weights of some surviving Pattern 1907 bayonets, including twelve bayonets from the 10,000 described above, produced by the six makers in the UK before and during the Great War (1914–1918) period were available. A statistical analysis of the data was performed to compare with the historical research. The results strongly supported that the Wilkinson Sword Co. Ltd. was a primary maker. They were also sufficient to exclude from this batch of twelve bayonets the Royal Small Arms Factory (Enfield) and Vickers Ltd. as manufacturers. The statistical evidence for the presence of bayonets made by J.A. Chapman Ltd., R. Mole & Sons and Sanderson Bros. was weaker than that for the Wilkinson Sword Co. Ltd., but was nevertheless supportive of that hypothesis. Overall, the analysis was consistent with the supply to Siam of commingled bayonets from British government stores. It was noted that the bayonets for the Siam contract fell into a relatively narrow weight range, but the reason for this could not be determined.     

高超声速滑翔再入飞行器的可达区快速预测

防御方对来袭滑翔再入飞行器进行可达区的预测存在先验信息量不足且时效性要求高等难题.为此提出一种基于最优化飞行假设的可达区快速预测方法:仅需已知目标当前位置、速度与最大升阻比(可基于雷达探测数据通过实时弹道估计获得),基于平衡滑翔假设和最大横程的埃格斯解分别获得目标最大纵程和横程终点坐标,在经纬度二维平面内,可达区即可近...