Spaghetti: systems thinking and the US Army

In the mid-2000s, the United States Army was embroiled in counterinsurgency missions in Iraq and Afghanistan that required deeper understanding of local social systems. The Army turned to systems thinking and design thinking to model and understand the world, define problems, and develop approaches to strategic and operational challenges. However, the Army’s approach as expressed in publications and doctrine encourages the development of complicated, unsupported, and unfalsifiable hypotheses. The risk is that the Army will act on incorrect assumptions and develop plans that are fragile.     

指挥控制结构的抗毁性分析研究

指挥控制结构的抗毁性决定了战时指挥控制体系在遭受敌打击时,其减缓受到的损害和恢复其相关能力的能力,在未来信息化作战条件下具有重要的现实意义。为了明确指挥控制结构的抗毁性与攻击方式等因素的关系,在指控复杂网络模型的基础上,对抗毁性的描述参数进行了定义,以仿真实验的方式对比了随机攻击与重点攻击、考虑时间因素的攻击、按照不同标准(度和介数)排序进行的攻击等。从而揭示了信息化作战环境下指挥控制结构抗毁性的表现与维护重点。     

Production planning with resources subject to congestion

A fundamental difficulty in developing effective production planning models has been accurately reflecting the nonlinear dependency between workload and lead times. We develop a mathematical programming model for production planning in multiproduct, single stage systems that captures the nonlinear dependency between workload and lead times. We then use outer linearization of this nonlinear model to obtain a linear programming formulation and extend it to multistage systems. Extensive computational experiments validate the approach and compare its results to conventional models that assume workload‐independent planning lead times. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2009     

复杂约束下的导弹作战任务规划模型和算法研究

导弹作战任务规划是一个涉及时间、资源、质量和其他关系约束的复杂问题。首先通过定义约束满足效用对基本约束满足模型进行了扩展，建立了导弹任务规划的约束满足优化模型。在此基础上，研究了任务规划模型求解的时间和效用传播算法，提出了基于综合效用的优化求解框架。该模型和求解框架易于解决具有多种约束因素的复杂问题，具有较好的通用性。通过定义软、硬约束效用，使得实际任务规划问题求解具有更好的灵活性。     

基于A*算法的坦克CGF全局路径规划

提出了一种应用A*启发式搜索算法对虚拟战场中坦克CGF(Computer Generated Forces)实体进行全局路径规划的方法,同时对A*算法进行了改进,利用二叉堆的结构组织OPEN表,大大加速了A*算法的搜索效率。所提方法可以处理较大规模的战场地形,具有较高的效率。     

The Trump effect downunder: U.S. allies,Australian strategic culture,and the politics of path dependence

Donald Trump’s election precipitated a debate in Australia about the value of retaining close alliance ties with the United States. Similar dynamics are discernible in other U.S. allies as the negative impact of Trump administration policies becomes clearer. Yet despite this “Trump effect,” we argue Australia is unlikely to distance itself from the United States because at the core of Australia’s strategic culture is a very positive “cultural orientation” toward the United States that is highly institutionalized in treaties, formal bilateral ties, Track 2 diplomacy, and public opinion. Such institutionalized ties have powerful path dependent effects. Accordingly, we conclude that the Trump effect does not constitute a powerful enough “exogenous shock” to move Australia off its well-worn grand-strategic path. But this alliance relationship is marked by both high cultural affinity and high institutionalization: American policy-makers should seriously consider whether other U.S. allies can tolerate similar levels of “stress.”     

地铁火灾应急预案的制定

介绍地铁火灾发生时的几个主要的特点以及其巨大的危害性,引出了地铁火灾应急预案制定模式的重要性。通过对已有的资料进行研究、分析,同时结合实际,对地铁火灾应急预案制定时所包含的主要内容进行了科学的完善,得出了一个完整的预案制定模式。     

基于混合算法的局部路径规划

人工势场法是一种常用的具有算法简单和便于实时控制的局部路径规划方法,但存在容易产生局部极小值的问题。基于模糊逻辑的局部路径规划法具有环境适应性强等优点,它在连续论域内采用模糊路径规划时,计算量比较大。提出了一种将人工势场法和模糊逻辑法相结合进行局部路径规划的混合算法。具体方法是在一般情况下采用人工势场法进行局部路径规划,当产生局部极小值时,采用模糊逻辑法进行局部路径规划。仿真结果表明,该方法能有效地解决局部极小值问题,给智能车规划出光滑的路径。     

基于水下声场信息的三维航路规划研究

针对目前大规模水下复杂战场环境中的航路规划困难的问题。设计了一种以距离值传递法为基础的航路规划方法,该方法以水下声场为主要威胁源,运用三维抛物方程(PE)模型计算水下声场数据,并以此建立三维水下战场环境。利用限制线性八叉树的方法对数据场进行数据分割,从而达到对搜索空间的压缩,最后通过距离值传递法搜索得到最佳航路。仿真结果表明该方法较快的实现了三维声场环境下的不同起始点、多目标寻径,满足一定条件下航路规划要求。