舰船辐射噪声对声纳作用距离影响的不确定性研究

为了研究目标舰船辐射噪声对声纳作用距离产生的影响,用蒙特卡洛方法对目标航速进行模拟。通过经验公式得出舰船的辐射噪声级并进行统计分析,得出舰船辐射噪声的概率分布直方图,由此可以导出被动声纳作用距离的概率分布直方图。相对于传统的声纳作用距离预报结果,该方法给出的作用距离预报结果是一个满足某一分布的随机变量,而非一个确定的值,为作用距离的预报提供了概率的依据,为艇指挥员的决策提供了定量信息。同时,通过计算得出舰船航速的均方差与声纳作用距离的均方差基本成线性递增关系。     

The impact of demand uncertainty on product line design under endogenous substitution

The existing product line design literature devotes little attention to the effect of demand uncertainty. Due to demand uncertainty, the supply‐demand mismatch is inevitable which leads to different degrees of lost sales depending on the configuration of product lines. In this article, we adopt a stylized two‐segment setup with uncertain market sizes and illustrate the interplay between two effects: risk pooling that mitigates the impact of demand uncertainty and market segmentation that facilitates consumer differentiation. Compared to downward substitution, inducing bidirectional substitution through product line decisions including quality levels and prices can yield greater risk pooling effects. However, we show that the additional benefit from the risk pooling effect cannot compensate for the reduced market segmentation effect. We demonstrate that the presence of demand uncertainty can reduce the benefit of market segmentation and therefore the length of product lines in terms of the difference between products. We also propose three heuristics that separate product line and production decisions; each of these heuristics corresponds to one particular form of demand substitution. Our numerical studies indicate that the best of the three heuristics yields performance that is close to optimality. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 143–157, 2015     

Technical note – operational statistics: Properties and the risk‐averse case

Consider a repeated newsvendor problem for managing the inventory of perishable products. When the parameter of the demand distribution is unknown, it has been shown that the traditional separated estimation and optimization (SEO) approach could lead to suboptimality. To address this issue, an integrated approach called operational statistics (OS) was developed by Chu et al., Oper Res Lett 36 (2008) 110–116. In this note, we first study the properties of this approach and compare its performance with that of the traditional SEO approach. It is shown that OS is consistent and superior to SEO. The benefit of using OS is larger when the demand variability is higher. We then generalize OS to the risk‐averse case under the conditional value‐at‐risk (CVaR) criterion. To model risk from both demand sampling and future demand uncertainty, we introduce a new criterion, called the total CVaR, and find the optimal OS under this new criterion. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 206–214, 2015     

基于向量皮尔森相关系数的组合赋权法

针对多属性决策中属性权重的确定问题,提出了一种基于皮尔森相关系数的主、客观权重的集成方法。用权向量的相关度作为不同赋权方法重要性的度量,意义明确,计算简单,可操作性强。最后采用算例验证了此方法的有效性和实用性。     

三维模型大尺度坐标测量辅助设计与评估方法

针对大尺度产品三维模型坐标测量信息缺乏和面向任务坐标测量结果质量评价困难的问题,引入新一代产品几何量技术规范(GPS),提出了基于CATIA二次开发技术的坐标测量辅助设计方法,设计了CAD与CMM集成的XML数据结构,建立了坐标测量数据的UML模型;实现了符合新一代GPS要求的测量方案脚本化描述,开发了部分数据处理算法;提出了基于Monte Carlo方法的坐标测量不确定度评估方案和流程。基于以上技术开发了基于三维模型的大尺度坐标测量设计与评估系统并应用于飞机装配中的部件位姿测量,结果表明,设计的测量方案能够满足飞机柔性装配对接的要求,验证了上述方法的有效性。     

论警卫学学科建设

警卫工作是公安工作的重要组成部分,警卫学是公安学的分支学科,加强警卫学学科建设,对于推动公安警卫事业和公安现役院校建设与发展均具有十分重要的理论和现实意义。探讨警卫学研究领域和研究方向、警卫学理论体系和学科体系的构建、警卫学学科建设的思路和措施等问题。     

立式拱顶油罐罐顶凹瘪变形测量方法

拱顶油罐罐顶的变形程度是油罐使用状态鉴定的重要参数之一。罐顶变形大部分为凹瘪变形,对罐顶凹瘪程度的测量包括凹瘪度和凹瘪面积。分析了现有罐顶变形测量方法的优缺点,在已知油罐罐顶曲率半径R和内直径D的基础上,通过皮卷尺和量油尺测量变形测量点与罐顶中心的水平距离XXN和垂直距离YXN,利用几何关系得出测量点的凹瘪度计算公式;凹瘪面积的估算分为罐顶中心有变形和无变形2种情况,利用球缺上表面计算方法得出估算公式。利用该测量方法实际测量了一座500 m3的洞库拱顶变形油罐,得出了测量和计算结果,并分析了测量误差。     

军事通信领域上下文本体建模及不确定性推理＊

为支持军事通信业务的智能化,研究了军事通信业务上下文信息的表示和推理,提出了一种表示业务上下文信息的语法结构、语义以及上下文元信息的本体建模方法。并利用贝叶斯网络理论,提出了一种支持不确定性推理的业务上下文认知模型的构建方法,最后通过案例分析验证了模型和结论的合理性。     

不确定条件下编队协同作战空中目标威胁评估

针对决策环境的不确定性,对不确定条件下舰艇编队协同作战的空中目标威胁评估过程进行了深入研究;在此基础上,根据舰艇编队协同决策的特点,综合运用风险型多属性决策理论,建立了满足不同决策层的舰艇目标威胁评估模型和编队目标威胁评估模型,从而提出了不确定条件下编队协同作战的空中目标威胁评估方法。最后,通过实例说明了所提方法的有效性。     

一种空中目标的不确定性威胁程度预测模型

目标威胁预测是对空态势和威胁估计的重要内容.针对空中目标飞行控制的基本特点,建立了基于经验公式的空中目标不确定性位置预测模型,进一步推导了不确定性威胁概率预测的模型和实用算法.仿真结果证明了模型的有效性,可用于多类空中目标意图推理及威胁判断.