回归分析在舰舰导弹火控模型中的应用

为评价火控系统数学模型的有效性,以舰舰导弹火控系统试验数据为基础,通过逐步回归分析方法建立了导弹火控系统射击参数的回归模型。经静态标准题验证和导弹火控系统航行试验检验,回归模型解算结果满足精度要求。比较结果表明,逐步回归分析方法对评价舰舰导弹火控系统模型有效性是适用和有效的。     

基于目的地预测的多相似加权目标编群方法

针对目标编群中单一算法存在的适用范围小、误分率高的问题,提出一种新的态势估计中目标编群的处理方法。首先应用Hop fie ld神经网络对态势中目标的目的地做出判断,然后采用多相似性加权策略计算出目标间的相关系数,再根据最大相关系数层次聚类算法实现编群。仿真结果表明方法能在一定程度上减小错误编群的概率,同时适用范围也得到了扩展。     

一种三维小基阵无源声测定向算法

无源声测定向是声学监视技术的重要研究内容。为了实现对低空运动目标的声学监视,提出了一种小基阵定向方法,并用线性回归分析原理导出了定向算法,对定向误差进行了理论分析和数值仿真。不仅适用于随机布阵的三维小基阵情况,也可应用到二维小基阵对声源的定向。理论分析和仿真表明,这种定向算法正确可行,且有较大的实用价值。     

Bayesian inference for a Lanchester type combat model

We undertake inference for a stochastic form of the Lanchester combat model. In particular, given battle data, we assess the type of battle that occurred and whether or not it makes any difference to the number of casualties if an army is attacking or defending. Our approach is Bayesian and we use modern computational techniques to fit the model. We illustrate our method using data from the Ardennes campaign. We compare our results with previous analyses of these data by Bracken and Fricker. Our conclusions are somewhat different to those of Bracken. Where he suggests that a linear law is appropriate, we show that the logarithmic or linear‐logarithmic laws fit better. We note however that the basic Lanchester modeling assumptions do not hold for the Ardennes data. Using Fricker's modified data, we show that although his “super‐logarithmic” law fits best, the linear, linear‐logarithmic, and logarithmic laws cannot be ruled out. We suggest that Bayesian methods can be used to make inference for battles in progress. We point out a number of advantages: Prior information from experts or previous battles can be incorporated; predictions of future casualties are easily made; more complex models can be analysed using stochastic simulation techniques. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 47: 541–558, 2000     

Fragment spatial distribution of prismatic casing under internal explosive loading

Non-cylindrical casings filled with explosives have undergone rapid development in warhead design and explosion control. The fragment spatial distribution of prismatic casings is more complex than that of traditional cylindrical casings. In this study, numerical and experimental investigations into the fragment spatial distribution of a prismatic casing were conducted. A new numerical method, which adds the Lagrangian marker points to the Eulerian grid, was proposed to track the multi-material interfaces and material dynamic fractures. Physical quantity mappings between the Lagrangian marker points and Eulerian grid were achieved by their topological relationship. Thereafter, the fragment spatial distributions of the prismatic casing with different fragment sizes, fragment shapes, and casing geometries were obtained using the numerical method. Moreover, fragment spatial distribution experiments were conducted on the prismatic casing with different fragment sizes and shapes, and the experimental data were compared with the numerical results. The effects of the fragment and casing geometry on the fragment spatial distributions were determined by analyzing the numerical results and experimental data. Finally, a formula including the casing geometry parameters was fitted to predict the fragment spatial distribution of the prismatic casing under internal explosive loading.     

加权模糊C均值聚类算法实现BDS三频组合观测值优选

在对BDS三频载波相位组合观测值进行误差分析的基础上,确定了优选载波相位线性组合系数的筛选标准。针对传统聚类算法在高维多频混合数据集分类中存在的不足,采用一种基于加权的模糊C均值聚类算法,通过对同一维度在不同簇上赋予不同的权重值,对传统遍历搜索法所获得的部分BDS三频载波相位组合观测值进行了优化分类选取,有效解决了传统全球导航卫星系统载波相位观测值选取方法效率低的问题,同时为多系统多频数据组合观测值系数的优化选取提供了一种新的思路。对分类结果进行分析,确定了各类组合观测量的适用范围,并结合实测数据,利用无几何层叠模糊度解算方法对优选组合进行了整周模糊度的解算,结果验证了该方法的可行性。     

Does Military Spending Nonlinearly Affect Economic Growth in South Africa?

Using annual data collected from 1988 to 2015, this study provides evidence of a non-linear relationship between military spending, economic growth and other growth determinants for the South African economy. The empirical study is based on estimates of a logistic smooth transition regression (LSTR) model and our empirical results point to an inverted U-shaped relationship between military spending and economic growth for the data. Furthermore, our empirical results suggest that the current levels of military spending, as a component of total government expenditure, are too high in the South African economy and need to be transferred towards more productive non-military expenditure in order to improve the performance of economic growth and other growth determinants.     

基于星载干涉仪测向的辐射源定位综合算法

针对卫星多次观测定位点的估计问题,提出一种不依赖于先验知识的定位点综合算法.该算法首先分析了星载干涉仪测向体制的定位精度,并基于此提出利用定位误差协方差矩阵对定位点进行加权综合的方法.仿真实验表明本文方法可以提高定位精度.     

支持向量顺序回归机的线性规划算法

支持向量顺序回归机是标准支持向量分类机的一个推广,它是一个凸的二次规划问题。本文根据l1范数与l2范数等价关系和优化问题的对偶原理,把凸的二次规划转化成线性规划。由此提了支持向量顺序回归机的线性规划算法,进一步用数值实验验证了此算法的可行性和有效性。并与支持向量顺序回归机相比,它的运行时间缩短了,而且误差i不超过支持向量顺序回归机;     

组合预测法在战时单兵日均物资需求预测中的应用

分析、研究、预测战时物资需求量,进而拟制相应的物资保障方案,是提高战时物资保障计划性和有效性的客观要求。利用灰色预测法和趋势预测法建立模型并进行预测,在对比分析各种物资需求预测方法的基础上,建立了基于最小二乘法加权的战时单兵日均物资需求的组合预测模型,为我军进行战时物资需求预测提供了一种可借鉴的方法。