相变温控混凝土相变储热性能试验研究

混凝土中加入相变材料之后对水化反应产生的热量有一定的吸收,从而对混凝土内部温度有一定的控制作用,这将减少混凝土温度裂缝产生的几率.通过筛选带一定结晶水的硬脂酸、月桂酸和正十二醇的3种有机相变材料,模拟实际大体积混凝土工程来研究不同相变材料的掺量、控温效果.运用计算机软件绘制时间一温度曲线,从中搜寻出最佳的相变材料掺量.     

污水处理过程软测量系统辅助变量的选择方法

辅助变量的选择包括变量类型、数量及检测点的选择,是软测量建模的第一步,直接关系到软测量质量的好坏.针对活性污泥法,从微生物生长繁殖的角度出发,探讨了各要素对于微生物生长活动能力的影响及其相互关系,通过影响力大小及相互间耦合性的复杂程度选取辅助变量的原则,完成了污水处理辅助变量类型的初选,并对辅助变量的精选进行了讨论.     

基于贝叶斯网络的反舰导弹身份识别

为了解决反舰导弹身份识别所面临的实时性和信息不确定性问题,提出了采用贝叶斯网络识别反舰导弹的方法。设计了4种贝叶斯网络分类器,分别在导弹仿真数据集和UCI数据集上作了测试,比较了它们各自的分类性能。实验结果表明,朴素贝叶斯网络的分类准确率虽然比其它分类器稍低,但它简单有效,稳健性比其它分类器都好,可用于反舰导弹身份的实时识别。     

水下无线传感器网络的节点精确定位

以无线传感器网络(WSN)水下应用为背景,针对特定的环境要求,提出了一种可实现网络规模升级的分布式无锚点网络节点自定位机制。该定位算法通过距离误差估计和分布式坐标计算方法,有效地减少了由于测量距离误差所带来的坐标计算误差和节点坐标计算所带来的通信开销,有利于网络节点能量的合理使用和大规模的WSN布放。通过试验仿真计算,验证了该定位机制的合理性,为水下WSN应用提供了有力的技术支持。     

干扰条件下空中目标识别方法研究

目标识别是态势评估和威胁估计的基础,是作战指挥辅助决策的重要依据,是防空作战的关键环节之一。该文将雷达信息可信度扩展到传感器信息可信度,并基于扩展内涵的目标识别信息可信度,提出一种应用对空侦察雷达、光学器材、ESM传感器的空中目标识别方法,完成干扰条件下空中目标识别模块的设计。该方法依靠目标识别信息可信度较高的传感器信息来做出全局判决,有助于提高整个系统目标识别的可靠性。     

Optimal maintenance policies for a safety‐critical system and its deteriorating sensor

We consider the integrated problem of optimally maintaining an imperfect, deteriorating sensor and the safety‐critical system it monitors. The sensor's costless observations of the binary state of the system become less informative over time. A costly full inspection may be conducted to perfectly discern the state of the system, after which the system is replaced if it is in the out‐of‐control state. In addition, a full inspection provides the opportunity to replace the sensor. We formulate the problem of adaptively scheduling full inspections and sensor replacements using a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) model. The objective is to minimize the total expected discounted costs associated with system operation, full inspection, system replacement, and sensor replacement. We show that the optimal policy has a threshold structure and demonstrate the value of coordinating system and sensor maintenance via numerical examples. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 64: 399–417, 2017     

Terrorism as Method in Nepali Maoist Insurgency, 1996–2016

During the period 1996–2006, the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) waged overt people’s war to seize state power and institute a new order that realized the party’s understanding of ‘New Democracy’ as posited by Mao Tse-tung. Contextual shifts led to a crucial strategic turning point in September 2005, when the Maoists agreed to a united front with estranged legal parties to oust the monarchy and establish a republic. Though touted as acceptance of political reintegration, the move was tactical rather than strategic. The party had no intention of supporting a parliamentary version of democracy and thus, 2006–2016, engaged in a covert effort to seize power. Central to this effort was the paramilitary Young Communist League (YCL), the members of which responded to inflammatory party verbiage and exhortations with attacks upon rival political actors. These attacks, academically and legally, were terrorism and offered a salient illustration of intra-state unrestricted warfare. Ultimately, organizational, national, and regional circumstances caused the main Maoist movement to move decisively away from its covert approach. By that time, however, radical splinters had embraced the use of terrorism against rival political actors, creating a situation whereby local politics is yet a dangerous endeavor in certain areas and at certain times.     

区域和参数化可靠性灵敏度指标及其解法

针对基于方差的全局可靠性灵敏度指标,分别提出基于方差的区域和参数化可靠性灵敏度指标,以衡量输入变量的取值区域发生变化时或输入变量的方差减小时整个输入变量系统对失效概率不确定性贡献的变化情况。然后从Pearson相关系数的视角分别将所提指标表述成无条件失效域指示函数与固定某一随机输入时的条件失效域指示函数之间的相关系数。在此转换的基础上,提出基于Pearson相关系数的两种求解方法,一种采用蒙特卡洛方法重复抽样进行循环计算,另一种借鉴重要抽样的思想。功能函数的计算样本可重复使用而不增加任何额外的计算代价,故后者大大提高了求解所提区域和参数化灵敏度指标的计算效率。算例结果验证了所提指标的合理性,同时也证明了所提方法的准确性与高效性。