高速铁路网络延误传播分析

针对既有方法研究高速铁路网络中延误传播规律的局限性,基于高速列车实绩运行数据和列车时刻表数据构建站点延误传播贝叶斯网络模型。结合复杂网络中的渗流理论研究延误传播团簇的演变规律,并以最大延误传播团簇中的南京南站和第二大延误传播团簇中的长沙南站为例,分析处于渗流突变状态下的站点延误传播贝叶斯网络。提出基于核心延误传播团簇的站点延误状态预测模型。结果表明：网络中的站点可按延误传播特征分为延误发散站点、延误传递站点和延误消散站点。延误发散站点不仅能直接将延误传播至邻近站点,还能通过延误传播链将延误传播至较远地区的站点。由此网络以部分延误发散站点为中心向延误传递站点和延误消散站点进行“辐射式”延误传播。     

功率循环下IGBT模块电热参数变化规律分析

为了分析IGBT模块老化过程中电热参数的变化规律,对IGBT模块进行了功率循环加速老化试验,并基于单脉冲测试方法在加速老化试验进程中每间隔1 000次功率循环,测取一次IGBT的结温、集电极电流与饱和压降三维关系曲面、开关能耗、热阻抗以及瞬态热阻抗曲线。IGBT模块老化失效时,其饱和压降、开通能耗、关断能耗以及热阻较其初始值分别增大了3.92%、12.05%、18.87%和22.65%,试验结果表明随着IGBT模块功率循环次数的增多,相同工作条件下IGBT饱和压降的增幅逐渐加大,而饱和压降、结温和集电极电流三者间的内在关系没有明显变化;IGBT瞬态热阻抗曲线暂态部分几乎不变,稳态部分向上移动的幅度逐渐加大;测取的IGBT模块电热参数中饱和压降增幅最小,开关能耗增幅较大,模块热阻的增幅最为明显。     

Convolutions and generalization of logconcavity: Implications and applications

Additive convolution of unimodal and α‐unimodal random variables are known as an old classic problem which has attracted the attention of many authors in theory and applied fields. Another type of convolution, called multiplicative convolution, is rather younger. In this article, we first focus on this newer concept and obtain several useful results in which the most important ones is that if is logconcave then so are and for some suitable increasing functions ?. This result contains and as two more important special cases. Furthermore, one table including more applied distributions comparing logconcavity of f(x) and and two comprehensive implications charts are provided. Then, these fundamental results are applied to aging properties, existence of moments and several kinds of ordered random variables. Multiplicative strong unimodality in the discrete case is also introduced and its properties are investigated. In the second part of the article, some refinements are made for additive convolutions. A remaining open problem is completed and a conjecture concerning convolution of discrete α‐unimodal distributions is settled. Then, we shall show that an existing result regarding convolution of symmetric discrete unimodal distributions is not correct and an easy alternative proof is presented. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 63: 109–123, 2016     

老年建筑防火设计

针对老年建筑在消防方面给我们提出的新课题,介绍人口老龄化和老年建筑的基本情况,分析老年建筑的消防特点,并着重对老年建筑防火设计的若干问题进行探讨.     

基于步进应力加速老化和改进Arrhenius模型的橡胶贮存寿命预测

为准确、快速地预测橡胶的贮存寿命,在步进高温应力加速老化试验的基础上,对不同加速温度下的加速系数进行计算,获得加速因子和绝对温度倒数的曲线,发现橡胶老化过程表现出非Arrhenius特性。针对非Arrhenius特性,引入幂指数因子,采用一种改进的Arrhenius模型对加速系数进行拟合。由对数反应速率与绝对温度倒数曲线的斜率,计算了改进Arrhenius模型在不同温度下的等效线性活化能,结果表明低温下活化能减小。建立低温下的老化寿命模型,对胶料在10℃,20℃和30℃下的老化寿命进行评估。评估结果表明,该模型可为相关高分子材料腐蚀过程中呈现的非Arrhenius特性的分析及寿命预测提供参考。     

矿物掺合料对GRC耐久性的影响

通过长达3年的标准养护试验及80℃热水加速老化试验,研究了矿物掺合料粉煤灰、硅灰对耐碱玻璃纤维增强普通硅酸盐水泥(GRC)耐久性的影响,并对矿物掺合料改善GRC耐久性的机理作了初步分析探讨。研究结果表明,粉煤灰和硅灰矿物掺合料可明显改善GRC的长期耐久性。     

Preservation of stochastic orders for random minima and maxima,with applications

It is shown, in this note, that the right spread order and the increasing convex order are both preserved under the taking of random maxima, and the total time on test transform order and the increasing concave order are preserved under the taking of random minima. Some inequalities and preservation properties in reliability and economics are given as applications. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004.     

关于S147 铝合金形变时效强化研究

本文研究了S147铝合金板材在形变时效处理各工艺阶段中的组织与性能。用扫描电镜观察分析了材料的断口形貌,并用薄膜试样在透射电镜下分析研究了该合金形变时效处理后的微观亚结构及过渡相析出物特征。结果表明,最佳形变时效处理可显著提高S147铝合金的强度及塑韧性,并能改善其过渡相析出过程及特征。     

Relative Aging of Coherent Systems

In this article, we carry out the stochastic comparison between coherent systems through the relative aging order when component lifetimes are independent and identically distributed. We make use of the signature to characterize the structure of coherent systems, and derive several sufficient conditions under which the compared systems with the common size can be ordered in the sense of relative aging. Specially, we present some scenarios wherein the better a coherent system is, the faster it ages. Moreover, we discuss the relative aging of dual systems as well. Several numerical examples are provided to illustrate the theoretical results. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 64: 345–354, 2017     

Cross-linking density and aging constitutive model of HTPB coating under prestrain thermal accelerated aging

In order to study the cross-linking density and aging constitutive relationship of HTPB coating during storage, the thermal accelerated aging tests at 0%, 3%, 6% and 9% prestrains were carried out. The cross-linking density of HTPB coating at different aging stages were tested using low-field ¹H NMR and the variation of cross-linking density was analyzed. The aging model of cross-linking density considering the chemical aging and the physical stretching factors was established. The uniaxial tensile tests were carried out on HTPB coating at different aging stages and the cross-linking density was introduced into Ogden hyperelastic constitutive model as a characterization parameter of correction coefficient. Combined with uniaxial tensile test results, a prestrain aging constitutive model of HTPB coating was established. The results show that the cross-linking density of HTPB coating increases rapidly at first and then slowly with the increase of thermal accelerated aging time without prestrain. Under prestrain conditions, the cross-linking density of HTPB coating decreases at the early stage, and increases rapidly at first and then slowly at the middle and late stages of thermal accelerated aging. The correlation coefficients of aging model of cross-linking density and aging constitutive model with test results are R > 0.9500 and R > 0.9900 respectively, which can be used to accurately describe the cross-linking density and aging constitutive relationship of HTPB coating under prestrain accelerated thermal aging conditions.