Optimal joint preventive maintenance and production policies

We study joint preventive maintenance (PM) and production policies for an unreliable production‐inventory system in which maintenance/repair times are non‐negligible and stochastic. A joint policy decides (a) whether or not to perform PM and (b) if PM is not performed, then how much to produce. We consider a discrete‐time system, formulating the problem as a Markov decision process (MDP) model. The focus of the work is on the structural properties of optimal joint policies, given the system state comprised of the system's age and the inventory level. Although our analysis indicates that the structure of optimal joint policies is very complex in general, we are able to characterize several properties regarding PM and production, including optimal production/maintenance actions under backlogging and high inventory levels, and conditions under which the PM portion of the joint policy has a control‐limit structure. In further special cases, such as when PM set‐up costs are negligible compared to PM times, we are able to establish some additional structural properties. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005.     

舰艇编队对空防御队形优化配置模型

分析了海上机动编队中防空舰的位置配置对舰艇编队拦截目标效果的影响,通过舰艇对来袭目标拦截概率的推导,建立了被掩护舰的生存概率模型,从而提供了一种解算编队防御队形最佳配置的方法。     

Signal‐to‐interference‐plus‐noise ratio estimation for wireless communication systems: Methods and analysis

The Signal‐to‐Interference‐plus‐Noise Ratio (SINR) is an important metric of wireless communication link quality. SINR estimates have several important applications. These include optimizing the transmit power level for a target quality of service, assisting with handoff decisions and dynamically adapting the data rate for wireless Internet applications. Accurate SINR estimation provides for both a more efficient system and a higher user‐perceived quality of service. In this paper, we develop new SINR estimators and compare their mean squared error (MSE) performance. We show that our new estimators dominate estimators that have previously appeared in the literature with respect to MSE. The sequence of transmitted bits in wireless communication systems consists of both pilot bits (which are known both to the transmitter and receiver) and user bits (which are known only by the transmitter). The SINR estimators we consider alternatively depend exclusively on pilot bits, exclusively on user bits, or simultaneously use both pilot and user bits. In addition, we consider estimators that utilize smoothing and feedback mechanisms. Smoothed estimators are motivated by the fact that the interference component of the SINR changes relatively slowly with time, typically with the addition or departure of a user to the system. Feedback estimators are motivated by the fact that receivers typically decode bits correctly with a very high probability, and therefore user bits can be thought of as quasipilot bits. For each estimator discussed, we derive an exact or approximate formula for its MSE. Satterthwaite approximations, noncentral F distributions (singly and doubly) and distribution theory of quadratic forms are the key statistical tools used in developing the MSE formulas. In the case of approximate MSE formulas, we validate their accuracy using simulation techniques. The approximate MSE formulas, of interest in their own right for comparing the quality of the estimators, are also used for optimally combining estimators. In particular, we derive optimal weights for linearly combining an estimator based on pilot bits with an estimator based on user bits. The optimal weights depend on the MSE of the two estimators being combined, and thus the accurate approximate MSE formulas can conveniently be used. The optimal weights also depend on the unknown SINR, and therefore need to be estimated in order to construct a useable combined estimator. The impact on the MSE of the combined estimator due to estimating the weights is examined. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004     

Bounding the optimal burn‐in time for a system with two types of failure

Burn‐in is a widely used method to improve the quality of products or systems after they have been produced. In this paper, we consider the problem of determining bounds to the optimal burn‐in time and optimal replacement policy maximizing the steady state availability of a repairable system. It is assumed that two types of system failures may occur: One is Type I failure (minor failure), which can be removed by a minimal repair, and the other is Type II failure (catastrophic failure), which can be removed only by a complete repair. Assuming that the underlying lifetime distribution of the system has a bathtub‐shaped failure rate function, upper and lower bounds for the optimal burn‐in time are provided. Furthermore, some other applications of optimal burn‐in are also considered. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004     

高炮群火力优化分配的指派模型

火力优化分配是高炮群指挥控制的关键环节。依据有严格理论证明和实用价值的指派问题及其解法(匈牙利法),构建了一对一射击和多对一射击情形下的高炮群火力优化分配的指派模型,探讨了该模型的求解,分析了该模型的实际应用,并通过具体实例对该模型进行了初步验证。该模型的解法被证明是多项式时间算法,满足作战实时性要求。实际应用表明该模型用于解决高炮群的火力分配问题是有效的。     

辐射源威胁排序模糊综合评判

通过对多批目标所载辐射源的威胁程度进行排序来判断多批目标的相对威胁程度是作战辅助决策的一种重要方法。建立了辐射源脉冲重复频率、辐射源方位、辐射源脉冲宽度等辐射源威胁评判指标体系并提出各指标的优属度函数。利用模糊多属性决策理论建立了基于不完全偏好信息的对多批目标威胁大小进行综合排序的模糊综合评判模型。实例证明该模型可行、有效,且便于计算。该方法不仅适用于辐射源威胁综合排序,而且适用于其它多属性决策问题。     

基于最优未知输入观测器的BIT降虚警技术

针对基于模型的机电控制系统BIT中的虚警问题,分析了系统中的信息不确定性和产生虚警的机理,基于最优未知输入观测器方法设计了BIT故障检测诊断系统,该系统对信息不确定性具有较强的鲁棒性,能够充分地抑制虚警。在某机电跟踪与稳定伺服平台BIT系统上进行了试验研究,结果表明机理分析正确,所提方法有效。     

BP神经网络的收敛问题

研究了BP神经网络的收敛问题。基于随机理论 ,提出了解决网络收敛性问题的随机优选法。该方法不仅在任何条件下都能得到问题的具有一定精度的解答 ,而且收敛速度很快     

A comparative study of three tool replacement/operation sequencing strategies in a flexible manufacturing system

This paper studies three tool replacement/operation sequencing strategies for a flexible manufacturing system over a finite time horizon: (1) failure replacement—replace the tool only upon failure, (2) optimal preventive tool replacement for a fixed sequence of operations, and (3) joint scheduling of the optimal preventive tool replacement times and the optimal sequence of operations. Stochastic dynamic decision models are used for strategies 2 and 3. The optimization criterion for strategies 2 and 3 is the minimization of the total expected cost over the finite time horizon. We will show through numerical studies that, with the same amount of information, the total expected costs can be reduced considerably by choosing an optimal strategy. Our conclusion is that in flexible manufacturing, optimal tool replacement and optimal operations sequencing are not separate issues. They should be considered jointly to minimize the expected total cost. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 47: 479–499, 2000     

基于可拓方法的C3I作战方案生成与评价

作战指挥决策支持系统是指挥自动化系统的重要组成部分,作战方案生成与评价是作战指挥决策支持系统的基本功能.根据作战指挥决策支持系统特点将可拓方法应用于作战方案生成与评价,并分析了其优势所在.结合空战案例运用发散树方法进行作战方案集的开拓,并利用优度评价方法进行作战方案的评价,从而得到最佳作战方案.