多平台多目标运动建模与仿真

针对现代战场环境下多平台多目标运动的特点,建立了各种机动、非机动目标运动模型,主要有蛇形机动、转弯和导弹比例导引等几种常见运动模型,并运用Matlab软件分别对其进行了计算机仿真。仿真结果表明,建立的数学模型与实际的目标运动基本是吻合的,可以用来描述目标的运动。     

Fire truck relocation during major incidents

The effectiveness of a fire department is largely determined by its ability to respond to incidents in a timely manner. To do so, fire departments typically have fire stations spread evenly across the region, and dispatch the closest truck(s) whenever a new incident occurs. However, large gaps in coverage may arise in the case of a major incident that requires many nearby fire trucks over a long period of time, substantially increasing response times for emergencies that occur subsequently. We propose a heuristic for relocating idle trucks during a major incident in order to retain good coverage. This is done by solving a mathematical program that takes into account the location of the available fire trucks and the historic spatial distribution of incidents. This heuristic allows the user to balance the coverage and the number of truck movements. Using extensive simulation experiments we test the heuristic for the operations of the Fire Department of Amsterdam‐Amstelland, and compare it against three other benchmark strategies in a simulation fitted using 10 years of historical data. We demonstrate substantial improvement over the current relocation policy, and show that not relocating during major incidents may lead to a significant decrease in performance.     

Interdiction models for delaying adversarial attacks against critical information technology infrastructure

Information technology (IT) infrastructure relies on a globalized supply chain that is vulnerable to numerous risks from adversarial attacks. It is important to protect IT infrastructure from these dynamic, persistent risks by delaying adversarial exploits. In this paper, we propose max‐min interdiction models for critical infrastructure protection that prioritizes cost‐effective security mitigations to maximally delay adversarial attacks. We consider attacks originating from multiple adversaries, each of which aims to find a “critical path” through the attack surface to complete the corresponding attack as soon as possible. Decision‐makers can deploy mitigations to delay attack exploits, however, mitigation effectiveness is sometimes uncertain. We propose a stochastic model variant to address this uncertainty by incorporating random delay times. The proposed models can be reformulated as a nested max‐max problem using dualization. We propose a Lagrangian heuristic approach that decomposes the max‐max problem into a number of smaller subproblems, and updates upper and lower bounds to the original problem via subgradient optimization. We evaluate the perfect information solution value as an alternative method for updating the upper bound. Computational results demonstrate that the Lagrangian heuristic identifies near‐optimal solutions efficiently, which outperforms a general purpose mixed‐integer programming solver on medium and large instances.     

基于Kullback-Leibler距离离散度的加权代理模型

复杂系统的仿真通常具有高维度、高计算量等特点，代理模型因其明晰的数学表达和良好的计算特性可用于逼近真实系统。加权模型对比单个代理模型来说，其稳定性和适应性更广。不同的代理模型其性能不一，根据特定指标，可以构造最优加权代理模型。基于代理模型预测分布以及Kullback-Leibler距离构造各子代理模型之间的离散度，并提出一种新的权函数构造方法。算例表明，该方法与最优子模型的精度相当，同时能提高对真实响应分布的逼近。     

舰载激光武器系统建模与仿真技术

针对舰载激光武器系统仿真技术发展要求和应用方向,通过对舰载激光武器系统组成、功能和作战过程的分析,归纳整理出一套较完整的舰载激光武器仿真模型,其中对激光能量传输仿真模型和毁伤效果仿真模型进行详细描述;并提出仿真软件设计方案,包括软件功能组成、软件结构、软件运行流程等仿真软件设计要点;最后介绍了软件的仿真输出结果。文中设计的仿真软件可支持舰载激光武器系统的设计开发,也可以应用到舰船新型防空反导火控系统仿真认证中。     

一类流行病动力学模型的稳定性研究

本文建立了一类流行病动力学的S-I-D-S模型，讨论了该模型的无病平衡点的全局稳定性及有病平衡点的局部稳定性。     

基于概率分析法的无人攻击机作战效能分析模型研究

未来防空战场上无人攻击机已成为一种重要的空中威胁。无人攻击机作战过程可分为飞行、突防、攻击三个阶段,运用概率分析方法分别建立了各阶段的数学模型,给出了其作战效能表达式,为进一步进行无人攻击机作战效能分析提供了模型基础。     

Operating Costs of Aging Air Force Aircraft: Adjusting for Aggregate Budget Effects

The rate at which operating costs grow as aircraft age is important for setting operating budgets and for deciding when to replace aging systems. While studies using data from the 1990's typically found 1–3 percent real rates of growth in operating costs as aircraft age, studies using data from the 2000's found greater rates, for example in the 4–6 percent range. Growth in the total U.S. Air Force budget during the 2000s appears to explain much of the higher estimated annual growth rates in operating costs per flying hour beyond the growth rate intrinsic to the aging of the fleet.     

基于Krsul分类法与联邦模型的脆弱性数据库系统

在分析脆弱性数据库研究现状的基础上 ,指出现有脆弱性数据库系统数据管理方法的不足之处 ,提出基于Krsul脆弱性分类法和联邦模型实现一种脆弱性数据库系统。该脆弱性数据库采用Krsul脆弱性分类法实现脆弱性数据的分类组织 ,采用联邦模型作为数据库系统的体系结构 ,采用Web界面实现数据库的人机接口。     

高功率微波弹的杀伤效果分析与仿真

根据高功率微波弹微波脉冲的攻击入射角,给出了高功率微波弹杀伤区域模型,结合高功率微波损坏和干扰电子元器件的能量阈值,提出了高功率微波弹对目标的失效区、干扰区及安全区的概念,并建立相应的数学模型进行了仿真分析,为高功率微波弹攻击参数的设定及实际的作战运用提供了理论依据。