公共场所人员安全疏散评价方法探讨

公共场所安全疏散评价对于确保火灾中人员的生命安全具有重要意义。基于“性能化”防火设计的思想，对影响公共场所安全疏散的因素进行了分析，并对安全疏散的必要性能和评价程序进行了较为全面的探讨，其中包括烟气的评价、人员疏散能力的评价、疏散路线合理性的评价、疏散对策的评价等，目的在于通过合理的评价方法得出合理的疏散性能，为减少公共场所火灾造成的人员伤亡和财产损失提供帮助。     

The effects of model parameter deviations on the variance of a linearly filtered time series

We consider a general linear filtering operation on an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) time series. The variance of the filter output, which is an important quantity in many applications, is not known with certainty because it depends on the true ARMA parameters. We derive an expression for the sensitivity (i.e., the partial derivative) of the output variance with respect to deviations in the model parameters. The results provide insight into the robustness of many common statistical methods that are based on linear filtering and also yield approximate confidence intervals for the output variance. We discuss applications to time series forecasting, statistical process control, and automatic feedback control of industrial processes. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

新形势下关于高校学生管理模式改革的思考

在新形势下,我国高校发生了一系列重大变化,学生管理模式必须进行相应的改革,其主要表现在以下三个方面:树立“以学生为本”的理念,强化服务意识;搜索管理盲点,改革管理体制;注重管理人员的素质,加强学生管理队伍的建设。     

The building evacuation problem with shared information

In this article, the Building Evacuation Problem with Shared Information (BEPSI) is formulated as a mixed integer linear program, where the objective is to determine the set of routes along which to send evacuees (supply) from multiple locations throughout a building (sources) to the exits (sinks) such that the total time until all evacuees reach the exits is minimized. The formulation explicitly incorporates the constraints of shared information in providing online instructions to evacuees, ensuring that evacuees departing from an intermediate or source location at a mutual point in time receive common instructions. Arc travel time and capacity, as well as supply at the nodes, are permitted to vary with time and capacity is assumed to be recaptured over time. The BEPSI is shown to be NP‐hard. An exact technique based on Benders decomposition is proposed for its solution. Computational results from numerical experiments on a real‐world network representing a four‐story building are given. Results of experiments employing Benders cuts generated in solving a given problem instance as initial cuts in addressing an updated problem instance are also provided. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

高层公寓建筑防火设计探讨

高层公寓的火灾特点不同于普通的高层住宅，其火灾危险性高于普通住宅。分析了高层公寓的火灾特点，并从消防车作业面、安全疏散、防火分隔、防排烟、灭火设施、内装修等方面提出了高层公寓防火设计应注意的问题。     

高校现代教育技术应用现状及发展趋势

通过对高校现代教育技术应用现状的分析,阐述了高校现代教育技术应用的发展趋势。     

Model parameter estimation and residual life prediction for a partially observable failing system

We consider a partially observable degrading system subject to condition monitoring and random failure. The system's condition is categorized into one of three states: a healthy state, a warning state, and a failure state. Only the failure state is observable. While the system is operational, vector data that is stochastically related to the system state is obtained through condition monitoring at regular sampling epochs. The state process evolution follows a hidden semi‐Markov model (HSMM) and Erlang distribution is used for modeling the system's sojourn time in each of its operational states. The Expectation‐maximization (EM) algorithm is applied to estimate the state and observation parameters of the HSMM. Explicit formulas for several important quantities for the system residual life estimation such as the conditional reliability function and the mean residual life are derived in terms of the posterior probability that the system is in the warning state. Numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the applicability of the estimation procedure and failure prediction method. A comparison results with hidden Markov modeling are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed model. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 190–205, 2015     

基于油液分析的装备状态多阶段组合预测模型

状态预测是状态维修的关键步骤之一。针对装备状态变化规律复杂、特点难易准确掌握的关键问题,以延时时间概念和两阶段预知模型为基础,提出了根据不同阶段特点采用不同预测方法的多阶段组合预测模型。通过油液分析及其相关规定,对装备运行阶段进行了具体划分,给出了适应各阶段特点的预测方法。最后,通过实例验证了该模型的有效性。     

一种新的柴油机润滑油发射光谱数据综合评价方法

对两台船舶主柴油机润滑油进行了长期监测,应用原子发射光谱仪对采集的36个油样进行了测试。采用基于熵权法的模糊综合评价对各元素进行了权重赋值,并依据权重选取11个元素中的5个主要作用元素进行了数据综合评价,按照正常、注意、警告、异常4个状态对装备磨损状态进行了分类。研究结果表明:所提出的油液原子发射光谱数据综合评价方法能够客观、准确地获取装备磨损状态,其评价结果与实际磨损状态相符,为装备的使用与维护提供了有效的技术依据。     

基于监测数据的电磁频谱地图构建与验证

提出基于广义回归神经网络拟合和聚类克里金的构建方法,通过趋势面拟合,将电磁频谱地图构建分解为路径衰减和阴影衰落分量的估计问题,以提升构建精度;设计监测数据聚类和自适应最优邻域选取机制,在保证构建精度的条件下减小计算数据量,以提升构建速度,从而利用数量有限的电磁环境监测数据,在不需要先验信息的条件下实现电磁频谱地图的准确、快速构建。设计并实现电磁频谱地图验证系统,搭建车载数据采集设备,利用实测电磁环境监测数据,验证所提方法的可行性及构建性能。