Heterogeneous discrete expenditure for diminishing returns

A probabilistic model is developed that applies to military bombardment, advertising for a mass audience, and other kinds of situations in which striking a target means that less of it is left to strike. The model provides the basis for decision analysis based on marginal gain in such circumstances. Heterogneous resources are considered as well as composite targets. All expenditures are quantized. The model has been developed as part of a computer-based military expert system, to replace a large complex set of expert opinions. In that application it sharply improves efficiency, yet conforms to major tenets of tactical doctrine.     

Involving the elephant: technical isolation and the role of India in a possible solution to the Iranian nuclear crisis

Apart from North Korea, no state's nuclear program in the twenty-first century has raised more concern to international security than Iran's. While Iran insists that its nuclear program is strictly for civilian purpose in line with Article IV of non-proliferation treaty, the USA and its allies insist that Iran has military intentions and called for sanctions. The failure of sanctions to deter Iran from its nuclear agenda had made many scholars and policy-makers call for a preemptive attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. Situated within this debate, this paper positions itself as an antagonist to the preemptive airstrike option and argues that involving India in a possible nuclear “iron curtain” against Iran – a move known as technical isolation – remains the best option to the current nuclear crises.     

A note on a first application of clustering procedures to fleet material condition measurements

The objective of this paper is to provide an independent evaluation of the nature and interpretation of ships' physical condition data generated by the USN Board of Inspection and Survey (INSURV). The substantive context is the classification of ships in terms of material condition and/or readiness based on scores pertaining to individual line elements within each ship. In order to account for multi-dimensional measures of each ship, clustering procedures are employed to evaluate existing ship classification systems and to indicate other possibilities.     

Middle Powers And The Demand For Military Expenditures

This paper identifies and classifies middle power nations through the use of broad political science definitions, the demand for military expenditures models and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. The latter is used as a simple quantifiable measure of relative and potential military power. The paper also develops and utilizes a threat variable that is applicable to middle power nations. The panel data analysis shows that the middle power nations react to threat variables that proxy global instability utilize foreign aid as a complementary policy tool along with military expenditures, and face significant trade-offs between military and non-military government spending.     

Operations analysis during the underwater search for Scorpions

This paper discusses the operations analysis in the underwater search for the remains of the submarine Scorpion The a priori target location probability distribution for the search was obtained by monte-carlo procedures based upon nine different scenarios concerning the Scorpion loss and associated credibility weights. These scenarios and weights were postulated by others. Scorpion was found within 260 yards of the search grid cell having the largest a priori probability Frequent computations of local effectiveness probabilities (LEPs) were carried out on scene during the search and were used to determine an updated (a posteriori) target location distribution. This distribution formed the basis for recommendation of the current high probability areas for search The sum of LEPs weighted by the a priori target location probabilities is called search effectiveness probability (SEP) and was used as the overall measure of effectiveness for the operation. SEP and LEPs were used previously in the Mediterranean H-bomb search On-scene and stateside operations analysis are discussed and the progress of the search is indicated by values of SEP for various periods during the operation.     

White hull or white elephant? Soft power and the Chinese hospital ship,the Peace Ark

Although soft power is now seen as an indispensable foreign policy tool, its efficacy has rarely been put to a rigorous empirical test. Using data from HARMONIOUS MISSIONs 2010, 2011 and 2013, this article seeks to examine the degree to which the soft power engagement missions of the Chinese hospital ship, the Peace Ark, has advanced Chinese interests. Although any conclusions drawn must be considered preliminary, as so little time has passed between the ship's visits and the current analysis, this research indicates that these missions’ impact on advancing Chinese interests was at best limited. Although observations from a single set of cases are unlikely to settle the debate between soft power advocates and detractors, it is hoped that this research will serve as a catalyst to further empirically based research on this topic.     

Beyond the state: reconceptualising African security in the 21st century

Confronted with myriad security challenges, African states and the much-vaunted peace and security architecture of the African Union (AU) has proven not to be up to the challenge. Indeed, this is implicitly acknowledged by the AU itself if one considers the creation of such security structures as the African Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), which exists outside its peace and security architecture. This paper argues for a radical rethink of security structures on the African continent – one in which state structures of security coexist with newer forms of security actors, including private military companies (PMCs), community movements and the business sector. Whilst this shift in security actors is already happening on the ground, policymakers need to embrace this new reality.