Use it or lose it: On the incentives to spend annual defence operating budgets

In most western countries, there is a strong incentive for defence department budget-holders to expend all of the funds they are authorized to spend in a fiscal year. In this paper, we question whether this emphasis makes sense. We develop a model of a defence department’s operating expenditure assuming a fixed level of funding for a year and uncertain costs. The results of the model suggest that the incentive for departmental managers to expend all authorized funds is inefficient. We explore the implications of the model for the Department of National Defence (DND) in Canada in light of the recent criticism of DND lapsed funding by the Auditor-General of Canada.     

Estimating travel distances by the weighted lp norm

Empirical distance functions are used to estimate actual travel distances in a transportation network, to verify the accuracy of road mileage data, and to formulate continuous location models. In this article we consider the problem of fitting the weighted l_p norm to a given network. Mathematical properties are derived for two fitting criteria found in the literature. These properties are used to develop an accurate and efficient methodology to solve for the best-fitting parameter values. The directional bias of the l_p norm is analyzed for its effect on the range of search for the optimal p value. Concepts and methodology are applied to a case study of the road system in Southern Ontario. In conclusion, a general framework for other types of distance functions is briefly discussed.     

Two‐dimensional failure modeling with minimal repair

In this paper, we discuss two‐dimensional failure modeling for a system where degradation is due to age and usage. We extend the concept of minimal repair for the one‐dimensional case to the two‐dimensional case and characterize the failures over a two‐dimensional region under minimal repair. An application of this important result to a manufacturer's servicing costs for a two‐dimensional warranty policy is given and we compare the minimal repair strategy with the strategy of replacement of failure. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004.     

Shifting power,preventive logic,and the response of the target: Germany,Russia, and the First World War

If a declining state has incentives for preventive war, the rising state should have incentives to delay a confrontation until it is stronger. We develop the theoretical paradox and examine the July 1914 crisis. Why did Russia, rising relative to Germany, not adopt a buying-time strategy? We argue that although most Russian leaders hoped to avoid a confrontation, they feared that the failure to support Serbia would lead to a loss of Russian credibility and a significant setback to Russia’s position in the Balkans, one that could not easily be reversed, even with Russia’s expected increase in relative military power.     

Note: Dual sourcing with nonidentical suppliers

We analyze a dual-sourcing inventory model with exponential lead times and constant unit demand in which the order quantity is split in some proportion between two sources of supply. Unlike earlier studies, we do not require that the two sources be identical in terms of the lead-time parameters or the supply prices. We compare the expected total annual costs for the two-source and the traditional single-source models over a wide range of parameter values. We confirm the findings of earlier studies that, under stochastic lead times, dual sourcing yields savings in holding and shortage costs that could outweigh the incremental ordering costs. With this more general model, we demonstrate that savings from dual sourcing are possible even where the mean or the variability of the second source is higher. © 1993 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Determining restrictive goals in linear goal programs

Goal programming is a method for solving problems having multiple, conflicting objectives. Information on the characteristics of the goals can help in setting goal weights and levels, determining priority levels, and in conducting postoptimality analysis. One characteristic affecting the outcome of a goal program is the restrictiveness of a goal. A restrictive goal is one whose inclusion in the goal set most degrades the value of the total objective function, or the attainment of the remaining goals. An algorithm is presented that determines restrictive goals.