Book reviews

Third World Military Expenditure: Determinants and Implications. By Robert McKinlay. Frances Pinter, London (1989)

The UK Defence Industrial Base: Development and Future Policy Options. By Trevor Taylor and Keith Hayward. Brassey's, London, for Royal United Services Institute (1989), ISBN 0-08-036713-5, £22.50

Mutiny. By Lawrence James. Buchan & Enright, London (1987), ISBN 0-907675-70-0, £12.95; Scapegoat! Famous Courts Martial. By John Harris. Severn House, London (1988), ISBN 0-7278-2103-2, £12.95; In Glass Houses. By Robert Boyes. Military Provost Staff Corps Association, Colchester (1986), ISBN 0-9513467-0-9, £6.50 (paperback)

The Nuclear Weapons World: Who, How and Where. Edited by Patrick Burke. Frances Pinter, London (1988), ISBN 086187-705-5, £50.00

Merchants of Treason—America's Secrets for Sale. By Thomas B. Allen and Norman Polmar. Robert Hale, London (1988), ISBN 0-7090-3543-8, £14.95 ($21.95); Intelligence and Intelligence Policy in a Democratic Society. Edited by Stephen J. Cimbala. Transnational Publishers, Dobbs Ferry, NY (1987), ISBN 0-941320-44-8, $37.50; Catching Spies—Principles and Practices of Counterespionage. By H. H. A. Cooper and Lawrence J. Redlinger. Paladin Press, Boulder, CO (1988), ISBN 0-87364-466-2, $24.95

The BattleshipRoyal Sovereignand Her Sister Ships. By Peter C. Smith. William Kimber, Wellingborough (1988), ISBN 0-7183-0704-6, £12.95; Air Power at Sea, 1945 to Today. By John Winton. Sidgwick & Jackson, London (1987), £9.95     

Book reviews

British Military History: a Supplement to Robin Higham's Guide to the Sources.. Edited by Gerald Jordan. Garland, New York (1988), xii + 586 pp., $75.00

Red Duster at War. By John Slader. William Kimber, London (1988), 352 pp., £15.50

Armed Services and Society. By Martin Edmonds. Leicester University Press, Leicester (1988), 226 pp., £25.00     

Weapon acquisition with target uncertainty

This article is concerned with choosing a mix of weapons, subject to constraints, when the targets to be attacked are known imprecisely. It is shown that the correct method for optimizing the mix of weapons involves a pair of nested optimization problems (two-stage optimization). Two methods for optimizing the expected utility of a mix are discussed. The first involves a simultaneous attack model, in which it is implicitly assumed that all weapons are used at once. The second involves a sequential attack model, in which targets appear in random order and are attacked one at a time. Particular attention is given to the question of the appropriate mix of general-purpose and special-purpose weapons.     

Comparative evaluation of prior versus progressive articulation of preference in bicriterion optimization

Procedures for solving multiple criteria problems are receiving increasing attention. Two major solution approaches are those involving prior articulation and progressive articulation of preference information. A progressive articulation (interactive) optimization approach, called the Paired Comparison Method (PCM) is compared to the prior articulation approach of a priori utility function measurement in a quality control decision environment from the perspective of the decision maker. The three major issues investigated included: (1) the ease of use of each method, (2) the preferences of solutions obtained, and (3) the insight provided by the methodology into the nature and structure of the problem. The problem setting involved management students who were rquired to determine an acceptance sampling plan using both methods. The PCM provided the most preferred solutions and was considered easier to use and understand. The prior articulation of preference method was found to give more insight into the problem structure. The results suggest that a hybrid approach, combining both prior preference assessment and an interactive procedure exploiting the advantages of each, should be employed to solve multiple criteria problems.     

The capital supply curve in capacity expansion models: Some economic and algorithmic aspects

Capacity expansion models typically minimize the discounted cost of acquisition and operation over a given planning horizon. In this article we generalize this idea to one in which a capital supply curve replaces the usual discount rate. A capital supply curve is a means to model financial outlook, investment limits, and risk. We show that when such a curve is included in a capacity expansion model, it will, under certain conditions, provide a less capital intensive solution than one which incorporates a discount rate. In this article, we also provide an algorithm that solves capacity expansion models that incorporate a capital supply curve. The attractive feature of this algorithm is that it provides a means to utilize the “discount rate” models efficiently. Throughout, we give applications in power generation planning and computational experience for this application is also presented.     

An optimum t-test for the scale parameter of an extreme-value distribution

A Student's t-test proposed by Ogawa is considered for the hypothesis Ho: σ=σo against the alternative hypothesis H₁: σ ≠ σo, where σ is the scale parameter of the Extremevalue distribution of smallest values with known location parameter μ. The test is based on a few sample quantiles chosen from a large sample so as to give asymptotically maximum power to the test when the number of sample quantiles is fixed. A table which facilitates the computation of the test statistic is given. Several schemes for determining the ranks of the sample quantiles by the optimal spacings are compared and the effect of the bias of the estimate of σ on the test is investigated through a Monte Carlo study.     

A cost-benefit analysis of military aircraft replacement policies

This paper describes a method of solving aircraft service life problems. The particular application concerns aircraft in the Naval Advanced Jet Training Command. The method of solution is comparative present value analysis of alternative replacement policies. The likely risks of estimation errors are reflected in the comparisons of present values. Differences are noted in the benefits associated with each policy, but external to Naval Aviation. Since the values of these benefits can be determined only at a higher level of decision-making, the result of the study is not a conclusive selection among policies, but a schedule of present values on the basis of which, together with values of the external benefits, a decision can be reached. This paper discusses replacement policies for aircraft used in the Naval Advanced Jet Pilot Training mission. Taking engineering technology and the training syllabus as given, four feasible plans for introducing replacement aircraft into service are evaluated in terms of the present values of differential costs associated with the plans and in terms of the likely errors in cost estimates used in calculation of the present values. The trade-off between present value of costs and planning flexibility is emphasized in choosing a recommended time pattern of aircraft replacement. The specific aircraft mixes considered are the TF–9J/TAF–9J and the TA–4F/A–4B. The first is the currently employed mix; the second is the proposed replacement. The problem is to select an optimal time-pattern of replacement of F–9's by A–4's, given technological differences favoring the A–4 and increasing costs of maintaining squadrons of F–9's. Replacements by aircraft types other than the A–4 are considered impractical. Four feasible plans for introducing A–4's through a 5-year period are evaluated in terms of current best estimates of the related costs of the plans and in terms of the flexibility of modifying each plan given future better information concerning the relevant costs. The method of analysis is comparative present value of expected costs.     

A sequential bayes procedure for reliability demonstration

A common problem in life testing is to demonstrate that the mean time to failure, θ, exceeds some minimum acceptable value, say θ₁, with a given confidence coefficient γ. When this is true, it is said that “θ₁ has been demonstrated with a confidence γ”. In this paper a Sequential Bayes Procedure (SBP) for demonstrating (by means of. a probability statement) that θ exceeds θ₁ is presented. The SBP differs from the classical procedure in the sense that a prior distribution is assumed on the parameter θ, calling for a Bayesian approach. The procedure is based on the sequence of statistics.