Predicting the cost performance of inventory control systems by retrospective simulation

When an inventory-control system is designed to utilized statistical demand information in computing an (s,S) policy, it may be necessary to use performance forecasts to calibrate the relationship between control parameters and performance measures. Using a simulation model to test prediction by retrospective simulation we estimated the bias and variance of forecasts for expected costs and other operating characteristics. The results show the sensitivity of the prediction bias to changes in demand, cost, and lead time parameters and to choices made in system design.     

The perils of special approaches to counterterrorism: the shooting of Jean Charles de Menezes in 2005

The death of Jean Charles de Menezes on the London Underground in 2005 remains a horrifying example of what happens when counterterrorism goes wrong. One of the extraordinary features of the shooting was the remarkable number of special elements, police units, military Special Forces, and unusual procedures and tactics involved in the incident. This article attempts to assess the causal significance of the special dimension in the horrific chain of circumstances. It does so by interrogating numerous explanations for the tragedy and highlighting the role of the special factor. The Stockwell shooting remains very important today because it casts a sharp and somewhat harsh spotlight on the particular pitfalls of special responses, measures and units to the multitudinous threats posed by international terrorism in the twenty-first century.     

Warfare by other means: special forces,terrorism and grand strategy

This contribution looks at the role of Special Forces in anti-terrorist operations with particular emphasis on the British Special Air Service. It argues that Special Forces have played a pivotal role in such operations since the era of Palestinian terrorism in the early 1970s. The essay looks at the operations in Afghanistan leading to the overthrow of the Taliban in 2001 and shows that the seven Special Forces involved there proved crucial to the success of the limited ground forces. In particular they served a valuable force multiplier by acting as a nexus between the regional warlords and the use of air power as well as mobile strike units against fortified Al Qaeda and Taliban positions. In the latter instance their success was mixed, involving attacks on difficult cave hideouts, though overall it can be concluded that Special Forces have demonstrated their capacity in fighting unconventional warfare against mobile and transnational terrorist groupings.     

British Special Forces in the Falklands War of 1982

This article explores the role of British Special Forces in the Falklands War of 1982 and argues that they played an indispensable part in the British victory. The concepts underpinning British Special Forces today can be linked to ideas developed in World War II (to influence strategy by unconventional means) which subsequently underwent significant redevelopment during the Cold War. The tremendous difficulties posed by the military campaign during the Falklands War, most notably the intelligence gap on Argentine forces, placed great emphasis on the activities of Special Forces to tip the strategic balance in Britain's favour.