Institutions,information, and commitment: the role of democracy in conflict

This paper explores the hypothesis that both the preexisting quality of democracy in a polity at the onset of conflict and the quality of democracy expected to emerge in the aftermath influence the likelihood of civil war. An empirical investigation of the hypothesis presents a challenge due to concerns of endogeneity and selection: the post-conflict level of democracy is endogenous to the pre-conflict level. Further, for a given time period, either a number of countries have not experienced civil war; or if they did, did not resolve the conflict. We overcome this selection bias by implementing a three-step extension to the Heckman procedure using an unbalanced cross-country panel of 77 countries over the period 1971–2005. Consistent with our hypothesis, we find that a standard deviation improvement in the existing level of democracy reduces the probability of civil war by approximately 9 percentage points and a corresponding improvement in expected post-conflict democratization increases the probability of conflict by approximately 48 percentage points.     

Warranty reserves for nonstationary sales processes

Estimation of warranty costs, in the event of product failure within the warranty period, is of importance to the manufacturer. Costs associated with replacement or repair of the product are usually drawn from a warranty reserve fund created by the manufacturer. Considering a stochastic sales process, first and second moments (and thereby the variance) are derived for the manufacturer's total discounted warranty cost of a single sale for single‐component items under four different warranty policies from a manufacturer's point of view. These servicing strategies represent a renewable free‐replacement, nonrenewable free‐replacement, renewable pro‐rata, and a nonrenewable minimal‐repair warranty plans. The results are extended to determine the mean and variance of total discounted warranty costs for the total sales over the life cycle of the product. Furthermore, using a normal approximation, warranty reserves necessary for a certain protection level, so that reserves are not completely depleted, are found. Results and their managerial implications are studied through an extensive example. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 49: 499–513, 2002; Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI 10.1002/nav.10023