Does Geopolitical Risks Predict Stock Returns and Volatility of Leading Defense Companies? Evidence from a Nonparametric Approach

Abstract

We use the k-th-order nonparametric causality test at monthly frequency over the period of 1985:1 to 2016:06 to analyze whether geopolitical risks can predict movements in stock returns and volatility of 24 global defense firms. The nonparametric approach controls for the existing misspecification of a linear framework of causality, and hence, the mild evidence of causality obtained under the standard Granger tests cannot be relied upon. When we apply the nonparametric test, we find that there is no evidence of predictability of stock returns of these defense companies emanating from the geopolitical risk measure. However, the geopolitical risk index does predict realized volatility in 50% of the companies. Our results indicate that while global geopolitical events over a period of time is less likely to predict returns, such global risks are more inclined in affecting future risk profile of defense firms.     

Analysis of a finite‐buffer bulk‐service queue with discrete‐Markovian arrival process: D‐MAP/Ga,b/1/N

Discrete‐time queues with D‐MAP arrival process are more useful in modeling and performance analysis of telecommunication networks based on the ATM environment. This paper analyzes a finite‐buffer discrete‐time queue with general bulk‐service rule, wherein the arrival process is D‐MAP and service times are arbitrarily and independently distributed. The distributions of buffer contents at various epochs (departure, random, and prearrival) have been obtained using imbedded Markov chain and supplementary variable methods. Finally, some performance measures such as loss probability and average delay are discussed. Numerical results are also presented in some cases. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 50: 345–363, 2003.     

Military expenditure,economic growth and structural instability: a case study of South Africa

This paper contributes to the growing literature on the milex-growth nexus, by providing a case study of South Africa and considering the possibility of structural breaks by applying newly developed econometric methods. Using full sample bootstrap Granger non-causality tests, no Granger causal link is found between military expenditure and GDP for 1951–2010, but parameter instability tests show the estimated VARs to be unstable. Using a bootstrap rolling window estimation procedure, however, finds evidence of bidirectional Granger causality in various subsamples. This implies standard Granger non-causality tests, which neither account for structural breaks nor time variation may be invalid.     

Optimal schedules for special structure flowshops

This paper considers the problem of scheduling a given number of jobs on a specified number of machines in a flowshop where the objective function is to minimize the total throughput time in which all jobs complete processing on all machines. Based on the combinatorial analysis of the problem, several simple algorithms are developed for solving special structure flowshop scheduling problems where the process times are not completely random, but bear a well-defined relationship to one another. The proposed algorithms are both simple and computationally efficient and can optimally solve large-sized problems even with manual computational devices.     

Light weight HTPB-clay nanocomposites(HCN)with enhanced ablation performance as inhibition materials for composite propellant

In the present study,organically modified Montmorillonite clay with polar moiety,the Cloisite 30B,is used for preparation of Hydroxyl terminated polybutadiene(HTPB)-clay nanocomposites(HCN)by dispersion of nanoclay in polymer matrix under high shear mixing.The nanocomposites thus prepared are evaluated in composite propellants as inhibitor material for their functional utility.Several inhibition formulations containing 5 wt％-15 wt％of nanoclay,with or without the conventional filler Sb2O3,were prepared.All these formulations were evaluated for their physical,mechanical,thermal,and ablative properties.Ablation rate and density of the compositions containing Cloisite 30B is around 23％and 5％lower respectively in comparison of the base composition.Strain capability of these compositions is twofold higher than that of base composition.These compositions have also been evaluated for their smoke generation tendency by measuring infra red(IR)attenuation in the wavelength range 1.3 μm-5.6 μm and 8 μm-13 μm and thereby compared with the base composition.The corresponding results confirmed that the compositions containing Cloisite 30B as filler have much lower IR attenuation than compositions with conventional filler,Sb2O3.Replacement of 5％Sb2O3 by nanoclay showed 8％reduction in IR attenuation rate which further reduced to 16％on replacement of 15％of Sb2O3.Interfacial bonding of HCN based inhibitors is also comparable or even better than conventional inhibitors.Precisely,the nanoclay composites with Cloisite 30B as filler exhibit all desirable properties of an inhibitor.     

The nexus between military expenditures and economic growth in the BRICS and the US: an empirical note

This empirical note re-examines the causal linkages between military expenditures and economic growth for the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) and that for the USA during the period 1988–2012. Results of Granger causality tests show that military expenditures influence economic growth in the USA, economic growth influences military expenditures in both Brazil and India, a feedback between military expenditures and economic growth in Russia, and no causal relation exists between military expenditures and economic growth in China and South Africa. The findings of this study can provide important policy implications for the BRICS countries and also for the USA.     

Predicting older-donor kidneys' post-transplant renal function using pre-transplant data

This paper provides a methodology for predicting post-transplant kidney function, that is, the 1-year post-transplant estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate (eGFR-1) for each donor-candidate pair. We apply customized machine-learning algorithms to pre-transplant donor and recipient data to determine the probability of achieving an eGFR-1 of at least 30 ml/min. This threshold was chosen because there is insufficient survival benefit if the kidney fails to generate an eGFR-1 ≥ 30 ml/min. For some donor-candidate pairs, the developed algorithm provides highly accurate predictions. For others, limitations of previous transplants' data results in noisier predictions. However, because the same kidney is offered to many candidates, we identify those pairs for whom the predictions are highly accurate. Out of 6977 discarded older-donor kidneys that were a match with at least one transplanted kidney, 5282 had one or more identified candidate, who were offered that kidney, did not accept any other offer, and would have had ≥80% chance of achieving eGFR-1 ≥ 30 ml/min, had the kidney been transplanted. We also show that transplants with ≥80% chance of achieving eGFR-1 ≥ 30 ml/min and that survive 1 year have higher 10-year death-censored graft survival probabilities than all older-donor transplants that survive 1 year (73.61% vs. 70.48%, respectively).     

THE EFFECT OF OPPORTUNITY COST AND HAWKISHNESS ON PROTESTS IN OCCUPIED REGIONS

This paper examines how the opportunity costs of the leader of a national protest movement and the intrinsic hawkishness or pacifism of the occupier affect the nature of the movement against occupation. The characteristics of the population residing in the occupied region, the nature of punishment that is being meted out to the protestors, and the structure of enforcement costs that lead to these outcomes are discussed in the paper.     

Worldwide military spending, 1990–95

The decline in military spending that began in the mid‐1980s continued through 1995, and this decline was widespread both geographically and by level of development. Cuts in military spending appear to have potentially important implications for non‐military spending and fiscal adjustment. In contrast to findings for previous periods, military spending has declined more than proportionately in those countries that have reduced total spending. Countries with Fund programs have reduced military spending more sharply than other developing countries, largely reflecting outcomes in the transition economies. Further, military spending appears to have been less resilient in program countries than other developing countries.     

Optimal flowshop schedules with no intermediate storage space

In this paper the problem of finding an optimal schedule for the n-job, M-machine flowshop scheduling problem is considered when there is no intermediate space to hold partially completed jobs and the objective function is to minimize the weighted sum of idle times on all machines. By assuming that jobs are processed as early as possible, the problem is modeled as a traveling salesman problem and solved by known solution techniques for the traveling salesman problem. A sample problem is solved and a special case, one involving only two machines, is discussed.