Dynamics of One-sided Violence in the Civil War in Northern Uganda

The analysis aims at detecting patterns in the use of violence against the civilian population in the Civil War that was fought in the North of Uganda by the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA), an armed group that is known for its atrocities. One-sided violence increased with a decline in popular support and was related to the support of an external patron who influenced the relative military strength. The results of the quantitative analysis indicate that the LRA’s use of violence varied systematically with battle-related activities and was higher after the LRA had to suffer losses in combat.     

Mediation and the Dynamics of Civilian Victimisation in Intrastate Conflicts in Africa

ABSTRACT

Reports about mass atrocities are often accompanied by demands for action against the perpetrators. Mediation allows third parties to demonstrate their active involvement against civilian victimisation. However, whether mediators are successful in contributing to lower levels of one-sided violence is far from clear. Conflict actors might continue or even intensify violence to enhance their bargaining position during peace talks. Based on our tests with monthly data for intrastate conflicts in Africa we find no support for the expectation that one-sided violence declines in the aftermath of mediation onset. Instead, we observe rather an increase in civilian victimisation.