Capacity expansion with lead times and autocorrelated random demand

The combination of uncertain demand and lead times for installing capacity creates the risk of shortage during the lead time, which may have serious consequences for a service provider. This paper analyzes a model of capacity expansion with autocorrelated random demand and a fixed lead time for adding capacity. To provide a specified level of service, a discrete time expansion timing policy uses a forecast error‐adjusted minimum threshold level of excess capacity position to trigger an expansion. Under this timing policy, the expansion cost can be minimized by solving a deterministic dynamic program. We study the effects of demand characteristics and the lead time length on the capacity threshold. Autocorrelation acts similarly to randomness in hastening expansions but has a smaller impact, especially when lead times are short. However, the failure either to recognize autocorrelation or to accurately estimate its extent can cause substantial policy errors. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2003     

The minmax multidimensional knapsack problem with application to a chance‐constrained problem

In this paper we present a new combinatorial problem, called minmax multidimensional knapsack problem (MKP), motivated by a military logistics problem. The logistics problem is a two‐period, two‐level, chance‐constrained problem with recourse. We show that the MKP is NP‐hard and develop a practically efficient combinatorial algorithm for solving it. We also show that under some reasonable assumptions regarding the operational setting of the logistics problem, the chance‐constrained optimization problem is decomposable into a series of MKPs that are solved separately. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

Emergency transshipment in decentralized dealer networks: When to send and accept transshipment requests

While there has been significant previous literature on inventory transshipment, most research has focused on the dealers' demand filling decision (when to fill transshipment requests from other dealers), ignoring the requesting decision (when to send transshipment requests to other dealers). In this paper we develop optimal inventory transshipment policies that incorporate both types of decisions. We consider a decentralized system in which the dealers are independent of the manufacturer and of each other. We first study a network consisting of a very large number of dealers. We prove that the optimal inventory and transshipment decisions for an individual dealer are controlled by threshold rationing and requesting levels. Then, in order to study the impact of transshipment among independent dealers in a smaller dealer network, we consider a decentralized two‐dealer network and use a game theoretic approach to characterize the equilibrium inventory strategies of the individual dealers. An extensive numerical study highlights the impact of the requesting decision on the dealers' equilibrium behavior in a decentralized setting. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2006     

Ungoverned space? Examining the FARC's interactions with local populations in Northern Ecuador

The Ecuadorian state has long been absent from the regions along its northern border with Colombia. I argue that this lack of state presence has allowed non-state armed groups and criminal organizations space to not only operate from these areas, but also, to challenge and change the relationship between local populations and the Ecuadorian state. After reviewing theoretical approaches to concepts of changing security paradigms and ungoverned space, the article details the conditions that have allowed armed groups, specifically the FARC, to take advantage of the lack of state presence along Ecuador's northern border.     

A PANEL DATA ANALYSIS OF THE NEXUS BETWEEN DEFENCE SPENDING AND GROWTH IN THE EUROPEAN UNION: A REPLY

Hatzinikolaou raises a number of issues related mainly to the econometrics of our paper. These issues are categorized according to the three stages of econometric analysis: specification, estimation, and diagnostic checking. We categorize our reply to his comments accordingly.     

Minimizing makespan in a multimode multiprocessor shop scheduling problem

We study the problem of multimode scheduling tasks on dedicated processors, with the objective of minimizing the maximum completion time. Each task can be undertaken in one among a set of predefined alternative modes, where each mode specifies a required set of dedicated processors and a processing time. At any time each processor can be used by a single task at most. General precedence constraints exist among tasks, and task preemption is not allowed. The problem consists of assigning a mode and a starting time to each task, respecting processor and precedence constraints, to minimize the time required to complete all tasks. The problem is NP-hard in several particular cases. In previous works, we studied algorithms in which a solution was obtained by means of an iterative procedure that combines mode assignment and sequencing phases separately. In this paper, we present some new heuristics where the decision on the mode assignment is taken on the basis of a partial schedule. Then, for each task, the mode selection and the starting time are chosen simultaneously considering the current processor usage. Different lower bounds are derived from a mathematical formulation of the problem and from a graph representation of a particular relaxed version of the problem. Heuristic solutions and lower bounds are evaluated on randomly generated test problems. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 46: 893–911, 1999     

The cost impact of using simple forecasting techniques in a supply chain

In this paper we consider an inventory model in which the retailer does not know the exact distribution of demand and thus must use some observed demand data to forecast demand. We present an extension of the basic newsvendor model that allows us to quantify the value of the observed demand data and the impact of suboptimal forecasting on the expected costs at the retailer. We demonstrate the approach through an example in which the retailer employs a commonly used forecasting technique, exponential smoothing. The model is also used to quantify the value of information and information sharing for a decoupled supply chain in which both the retailer and the manufacturer must forecast demand. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 50: 388–411, 2003     

Leadership at NATO: Secretary General Manfred Woerner and the Crisis in Bosnia

NATO's post-Cold War transformation, as well as the military alliance's decision to use force in Bosnia in 1994 and 1995, has been examined from multiple perspectives. Among an array of diplomatic, historical and political approaches, however, analysts have given little attention to the role played by NATO's top civilian leader in Brussels, the Secretary General. On the crisis in Bosnia, no research has been devoted to the leadership of Secretary General Manfred Woerner, who oversaw NATO as it moved toward aggressive military action in the Balkans. Using an approach that examines the Secretary General's leadership from three perspectives, this article provides the first assessment of Woerner's role in shaping alliance policy on Bosnia. The findings suggest that Woerner was a critical leader in influencing NATO decisions, which provides new explanations for NATO's conduct in the Balkans, and speaks to the broader literature on NATO's evolution after the Cold War.