Minimum violations and predictive meta‐rankings for college football

This article presents two meta‐ranking models that minimize or nearly minimize violations of past game results while predicting future game winners as well as or better than leading current systems—a combination never before offered for college football. Key to both is the development and integration of a highly predictive ensemble probability model generated from the analysis of 36 existing college football ranking systems. This ensemble model is used to determine a target ranking that is used in two versions of a hierarchical multiobjective mixed binary integer linear program (MOMBILP). When compared to 75 other systems out‐of‐sample, one MOMBILP was the leading predictive system while getting within 0.64% of the retrodictive optimum; the other MOMBILP minimized violations while achieving a prediction total that was 2.55% lower than the best mark. For bowls, prediction sums were not statistically significantly different from the leading value, while achieving optimum or near‐optimum violation counts. This performance points to these models as potential means of reconciling the contrasting perspectives of predictiveness versus the matching of past performance when it comes to ranking fairness in college football. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 17–33, 2014     

Small states and their armies: Restructuring the militia framework of the Israel defense force

The British provided unprecedented shelter, training and supplies that made possible the revival of a new and better Belgian Army after the crushing German victories in 1940. Starting in Wales in 1940 as a small and disunited group, the Belgians improved more than any of the Allied exile ground forces. By 1944, their independent brigade fought well in Normandy and Belgium, restoring national pride and proving the worth of British help. The parallel and interdependent processes between the British and their Continental guests allows this analysis of the Anglo‐Belgian experience to be useful in considering British Army interactions with the other exiles as well.     

Attitude,Aptitude, and Testing in the Efficient Mobilization of Military Manpower

Militaries commonly require recruits to pass a test that measures aptitude for military service. In this paper, we show that such tests may also act as a device for screening out low-motivation recruits, even if it is assumed that motivation is not measured by such tests and is not correlated with aptitude.     

Landmarks in defense literature

Strategy: The Indirect Approach. By B. H. Liddell Hart. London: Faber and Faber (1954)     

The power of paired sample tests

The power of the component randomization test for the paired sample location test is compared to the power of the parametric test for paired comparisons using the sum of differences distribution. This analysis is presented in the form of operating characteristic curves for normal, exponential, uniform and absolute lambda observations over a range of small sample sizes.     

Scheduling with tool changes to minimize total completion time: A study of heuristics and their performance

The machine scheduling literature does not consider the issue of tool change. The parallel literature on tool management addresses this issue but assumes that the change is due only to part mix. In practice, however, a tool change is caused most frequently by tool wear. That is why we consider here the problem of scheduling a set of jobs on a single CNC machine where the cutting tool is subject to wear; our objective is to minimize the total completion time. We first describe the problem and discuss its peculiarities. After briefly reviewing available theoretical results, we then go on to provide a mixed 0–1 linear programming model for the exact solution of the problem; this is useful in solving problem instances with up to 20 jobs and has been used in our computational study. As our main contribution, we next propose a number of heuristic algorithms based on simple dispatch rules and generic search. We then discuss the results of a computational study where the performance of the various heuristics is tested; we note that the well‐known SPT rule remains good when the tool change time is small but deteriorates as this time increases and further that the proposed algorithms promise significant improvement over the SPT rule. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2003     

Clausewitz and Low-Intensity Conflict

The end of the Cold War led some commentators to question the relevance of Clausewitz's thought in a strategic environment where low-intensity conflict (LIC) would predominate. On the contrary, however, Clausewitz's understanding of the intensity of warfare, and its relationship with the political environment of any given time, makes his thinking compatible with changing historical circumstances. The current War on Terror, for example, can be comfortably accommodated within Clausewitz's concept of war. However, a move away from Clausewitz in US doctrine has been coupled with a rejection of LIC in favour of the erroneous notion of ‘operations other than war’. Consequently, such doctrine lacks the clarity required for its proper dissemination.