Deterrence Beyond Downunder: Australia and US Security Guarantees since 1955

ABSTRACT

From 1944 to 1973 Australia attempted to acquire atomic weaponry. This ambition was driven by the desire to contribute to defending British interests in Asia, fears of invasion by China, Indonesia, and Japan, great-power war, and the belief that nuclear weapons were merely bigger and better conventional weapons, that they would proliferate, and that US security assurances lacked credibility. Although the pursuit of the bomb was eventually abandoned, this was not the result of US assurances. Rather, geopolitical changes in Australia’s environment meant that a major attack on the continent was unlikely to occur outside the context of a confrontation between the US, China, and the Soviet Union. This article argues that Australia may soon have to rethink its policies towards US extended deterrence and instead focus on developing its own deterrent.     

The lobbies’ network at the EU policy level: the case of security and defense

Lobbyists may not share the same interests, but they usually agree to form a link in a network which could eventually be used to spread information, to search for potential partners, to speak with one voice to decision makers. In other words, social links represent value for lobbyists because they may ultimately facilitate access. In this article, we explore the network of the Security and Defense lobbies in the EU and we describe its structure.     

Book reviews

Red Banner: the Soviet Military System in Peace and War. By Christopher Donnelly. Jane's Information Group, Coulsdon, UK (1988), 288 pp., £35.00

Images of T. E. Lawrence. By S. E. Tabachnick and C. Matheson. Jonathan Cape, London (1988); The Letters of T. E. Lawrence. Edited by Malcolm Brown. Dent, London (1988); T. E. Lawrence. By J. Wilson. National Portrait Gallery Publications, London (1988); Lawrence and the Arab Revolts. By D. Nicolle. Osprey, London (1989)

Liddell Hart and the Weight of History. By John Mearsheimer. Brassey's, London (1989), £15.95

Science and Mythology in the Making of Defence Policy. Edited by Margaret Blunden and Owen Greene. Brassey's, London (1989), £27.50/$44.00

Warfare in the Twentieth Century. Edited by Colin McInnes and G. D. Sheffield. Unwin Hyman, London (1988), 239 pp., £25.00     

On finding spanning eulerian subgraphs

In this article, we examine the problem of producing a spanning Eulerian subgraph in an undirected graph. After the ?-completeness of the general problem is established, we present polynomial-time algorithms for both the maximization and minimization versions where instances are defined on a restricted class of graphs referred to as series-parallel. Some novelties in the minimization case are discussed, as are heuristic ideas.     

The politics of population

This article suggests some of the principal factors behind the decisions by an increasing number of countries deciding that the achievement of their national objectives required a policy for population, and the way that they are likely to work out. By 1983, 35 developing countries had an official policy to reduce their population growth rate, and in 34 others, the government supported family planning activities--usually for reasons of health or as a human right. The number is remarkable given the many compelling reasons that governments have for not attempting anything so difficult as to modify demographic trends. The future results of population programs, in social and economic terms, are very difficult to quantify, thus defying cost-benefit analysis of the desirability of investing resources in this area, rather than in something else. There are also powerful political reasons why a government might well hesitate before embarking on a policy to reduce the nation's fertility. At the very least, it implies government interference in the most private and personal of human relations, an invasion of human rights, and a disturbance of the traditional patterns of society and behavior. For many countries that are pursuing a policy to limit population growth, the decision has been taken only after the grievous consequences of not having such a policy have already become manifest. The critical question is how soon a government will make the connection among political disobedience, economic and social distress, and the population explosion, and adopt a population policy. Although the number of developing countries that have officially proclaimed a strongly pro-natalist population policy is relatively small, many have Marxist governments. Overall, governments have several strategies at their disposal: 1) improving the accessability and the quality of the service; 2) promoting population education and family planning motivation (with the assistance of the media, folk art, and personal persuasion); and 3) applying a judicious mixture of incentives and disincentives.     

Quadratic forms in spherical random variables: Generalized noncentral x2 distribution

Let X denote a random vector with a spherically symmetric distribution. The density of U = X'X, called a “generalized chi-square,” is derived for the noncentral case, when μ = E(X) ≠ 0. Explicit series representations are found in certain special cases including the “generalized spherical gamma,” the “generalized” Laplace and the Pearson type VII distributions. A simple geometrical representation of U is shown to be useful in generating random U variates. Expressions for moments and characteristic functions are also given. These densities occur in offset hitting probabilities.     

A characterization of the wald distribution

Suppose X is a random variable having an absolutely continuous distribution function F(x). We assume that F(x) has the Wald distribution. A relation between the probability density function of X⁻¹ with that of X is used to characterize the Wald distribution.     

A class of inventory models with customer impatience

Classical inventory models generally assume either no backlogging of demands or unlimited backlogging. This paper treats the case wherein backlogged customers are willing to wait for a random period of time for service. A broad class of such models is discussed, with a more complete analysis performed on a simple subclass. Steady state equations are derived and solved assuming exponentially distributed interarrival times of customers, order delivery lead times, and customer patience.