The Trump effect downunder: U.S. allies,Australian strategic culture,and the politics of path dependence

Donald Trump’s election precipitated a debate in Australia about the value of retaining close alliance ties with the United States. Similar dynamics are discernible in other U.S. allies as the negative impact of Trump administration policies becomes clearer. Yet despite this “Trump effect,” we argue Australia is unlikely to distance itself from the United States because at the core of Australia’s strategic culture is a very positive “cultural orientation” toward the United States that is highly institutionalized in treaties, formal bilateral ties, Track 2 diplomacy, and public opinion. Such institutionalized ties have powerful path dependent effects. Accordingly, we conclude that the Trump effect does not constitute a powerful enough “exogenous shock” to move Australia off its well-worn grand-strategic path. But this alliance relationship is marked by both high cultural affinity and high institutionalization: American policy-makers should seriously consider whether other U.S. allies can tolerate similar levels of “stress.”     

Systems defense games: Colonel blotto,command and control

The classical “Colonel Blotto” games of force allocation are generalized to include situations in which there are complementarities among the targets being defended. The complementarities are represented by means of a system “characteristic function,” and a valuation technique from the theory of cooperative games is seen to indicate the optimal allocations of defense and attack forces. Cost trade-offs between systems defense and alternative measures, such as the hardening of targets, are discussed, and a simple example is analyzed in order to indicate the potential of this approach.     

Limit laws in the best of 2n - 1 bernoulli trials

A series of independent Bernoulli trials is considered in which either an outcome of type A or type B occurs at each trial. The series terminates when n outcomes of one type have occurred. Two observable random variables of interest are the total number of outcomes in the series and the number of outcomes of the “losing kind.” Two methods of approximation of the expectations of these random variables for large n are obtained and compared. The limiting distribution of the number of outcomes of the “losing kind” is considered when a beta distribution is assigned to p.     

On the first time a separately maintained parallel system has been down for a fixed time

Consider a system consisting of n separately maintained independent components where the components alternate between intervals in which they are “up” and in which they are “down”. When the i^th component goes up [down] then, independent of the past, it remains up [down] for a random length of time, having distribution F_i[G_i], and then goes down [up]. We say that component i is failed at time t if it has been “down” at all time points s ?[t-A.t]: otherwise it is said to be working. Thus, a component is failed if it is down and has been down for the previous A time units. Assuming that all components initially start “up,” let T denote the first time they are all failed, at which point we say the system is failed. We obtain the moment-generating function of T when n = l, for general F and G, thus generalizing previous results which assumed that at least one of these distributions be exponential. In addition, we present a condition under which T is an NBU (new better than used) random variable. Finally we assume that all the up and down distributions F_i and G_i i = l,….n, are exponential, and we obtain an exact expression for E(T) for general n; in addition we obtain bounds for all higher moments of T by showing that T is NBU.     

The bounded interval generalized assignment model

The bounded interval generalized assignment model is a “many-for-one” assignment model. Each task must be assigned to exactly one agent; however, each agent can be assigned multiple tasks as long as the agent resource consumed by performing the assigned tasks falls within a specified interval. The bounded interval generalized assignment model is formulated, and an algorithm for its solution is developed. Algorithms for the bounded interval versions of the semiassignment model and sources-to-uses transportation model are also discussed.     

Alternatives for defense in the Post‐Soviet World: A guide for economists to the U.S. debate

The defense establishments of all major powers are changing to reflect changes in the foundations of national security strategy and resource allocation. The authors believe economists should play an active role in formulating these changes and offer an orientation to the U.S. debate, presenting three major alternatives: the “Base Force” (Bush Administration), Mr. Aspin's Force “C,” and the “Low” Alternative (Prof. Kaufmann and Dr. Steinbruner). These alternatives are compared using first‐order measures of capabilities, budgets and risk. Budgetary estimates are based on newly‐developed analytical tools.     

Cutting,Running, or Otherwise? The US Decision to withdraw from Somalia

Although President Bill Clinton made the decision to withdraw U.S. combat troops from Somalia within three days of the disastrous Mogadishu raid that resulted in the deaths of 18 U.S. servicemen, casualties were not the only consideration. Many other factors were at play. Waning Congressional and public enthusiasm for a new “nation-building” mandate, the strategic insignificance of Somalia in the post-Cold War era, and a host of other foreign policy issues had been eroding U.S. support for the mission in Somalia for months. The “Black Hawk Down” incident merely accelerated the final rupture in public and Congressional support, forcing the president to bring the troops home. It was not a simple case of casualty aversion.     

Mathematical control theory solution of an interactive accounting flows model

In this paper we have applied the mathematical control theory to the accounting network flows, where the flow rates are constrained by linear inequalities. The optimal control policy is of the “generalized bang-bang” variety which is obtained by solving at each instant in time a linear programming problem whose objective function parameters are determined by the “switching function” which is derived from the Hamiltonian function. The interpretation of the adjoint variables of the control problem and the dual evaluators of the linear programming problem demonstrates an interesting interaction of the cross section phase of the problem, which is characterized by linear programming, and the dynamic phase of the problem, which is characterized by control theory.     

Optimal policies for a multi-product inventory system with negotiable lead times

The objective of this paper is to determine the optimum inventory policy for a multi-product periodic review dynamic inventory system. At the beginning of each period two decisions are made for each product. How much to “normal order” with a lead time of λ_n periods and how much to “emergency order” with a lead time of λ_e periods, where λe = λ_n - 1. It is assumed that the emergency ordering costs are higher than the normal ordering costs. The demands for each product in successive periods are assumed to form a sequence of independent identically distributed random variables with known densities. Demands for individual products within a period are assumed to be non-negative, but they need not be independent. Whenever demand exceeds inventory their difference is backlogged rather than lost. The ordering decisions are based on certain costs and two revenue functions. Namely, the procurement costs which are assumed to be linear for both methods of ordering, convex holding and penalty costs, concave salvage gain functions, and linear credit functions. There is a restriction on the total amount that can be emergency ordered for all products. The optimal ordering policy is determined for the one and N-period models.     

U.S. SPACE WEAPONS

Under the administration of President George W. Bush, Pentagon rhetoric has increasingly articulated a more robust vision of space as a future battlefield. This analysis details some of the ongoing spending for research and development programs identified in current U.S. Air Force, Missile Defense Agency (MDA), and Defense Advanced Research and Planning Agency (DARPA) planning and budget documents related to “space control” and “space force projection.” This analysis finds that current support for “space superiority” and “space control” systems remains largely rhetorical—with little actual budgetary support. Unclassified technology development programs included in the six-year Future Years Defense Plan are a decade or more away from deployment. Programs related to offensive counterspace, space-based missile defense interceptors, and space-based strike total slightly less than $300 million in FY 2006 funding. We conclude significantly higher expenditures in research and development would be required to develop and deploy killer micro satellites, space-based missile defense interceptors, and military space planes.     

Force deployment and the production of security: Why is the united states in NATO?

Standard economic concepts of production and cost minimization subject to a production constraint are used to derive the conditions of optimal deployment of home and forward military forces for the production of home security. United States' participation in the NATO alliance is then analyzed in the context of a two‐ally (U.S. and Western Europe) optimal force deployment model of NATO. Next, U.S. force‐basing policy is adduced as an enforcement mechanism for the “transatlantic contract.” Lastly, statistical evidence on burden sharing within Western Europe, and the effectiveness of the U.S. contract enforcement policy, is presented.     

An attack-defense game with matrix strategies

This paper presents the results and the method of analysis for an attack-defense game involving allocation of resources. Each player is assumed to have several different types of resources to be divided in optimal fashion among a fixed set of targets. The payoff function of the game is convex. The “No Soft-Spot” principle of M. Dresher, and the concept of the generalized inverse of a matrix are used to determine optimal strategies for each player and the value of the game.     

Some estimates of reliability using interference theory

According to “interference theory” of reliability, a component fails if the maximum stress exceeds the component's strength. Assuming that both these quantities are random and their distributions are normal, we obtain in this paper some point and interval estimates of reliability when the stress distribution is known and a few observations exist on component strengths.     

Storage problems when demand is “all or nothing”

An inventory of physical goods or storage space (in a communications system buffer, for instance) often experiences “all or nothing” demand: if a demand of random size D can be immediately and entirely filled from stock it is satisfied, but otherwise it vanishes. Probabilistic properties of the resulting inventory level are discussed analytically, both for the single buffer and for multiple buffer problems. Numerical results are presented.     

One Step Forward,Two Steps Back

This article explores the potential impact of U.S. disarmament leadership on the nuclear diplomacy of North Korea and Iran, the “defiant states.” The first part of the article introduces the concept of “interaction capacity,” which measures a state's integration into international society, based on its physical communication systems and its adoption of shared norms. The theory predicts that lower levels of interaction capacity will generate a greater propensity for nuclear defiance, as the affected states reject and try to resist integration pressures. In the second and third parts of the article, this conceptual framework is applied to the cases of North Korea and Iran. The analysis suggests that efforts to reassert U.S. disarmament leadership could increase the alienation of North Korea and Iran, leading to provocation and escalation of nuclear tensions. The final part of the paper explores the policy implications of this analysis for the potentially defunct six-party talks, for hopes of renewed negotiations with Iran, and for the 2010 Review Conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.     

Unpacking the various meanings of redundancy: from refining the concept to military planning

The authors engage in the debate over waste in military force structure planning by rigorously deconstructing the concept of “redundancy.” First, a typology of redundancy is constructed that provides a common framework for identifying variety among redundant structures. These are labeled “true redundancy,” “expanded capacity,” “portfolio diversification,” and “mission overlap.” Further, a number of mechanisms are identified that produce these types of structures, and show the conditions under which planners may utilize redundant structure in the search for optimization. In sum, the article provides refined concepts for analysts and planners to identify when redundancy is deleterious or beneficial.     

Quasi-separable utility functions

This paper is concerned with a method for the assessment of utility functions of multi-numeraire consequences. It is proven that given von Neumann and Morgenstern's axioms of “rational behavior” and two additional assumptions, the utility function for (x, y) consequences can be written as U(x, y) = U_x(x) + U_y(y) + KU_x(x) U_y(y). K is a constant that must be evaluated empirically. This form shall be designated as a quasi-separable utility function. It is more general than the separable utility function and is shown to be nearly as easy to use. Implications and ramifications of such a utility function and its requisite assumptions are discussed. A technique for practical application of this work is presented.     

Life in the “Gray Zone”: observations for contemporary strategists

The term “Gray Zone” is gaining in popularity as a way of describing contemporary security challenges. This article describes the “short-of-war” strategies – the fait accompli, proxy warfare, and the exploitation of ambiguous deterrence situations, i.e. “salami tactics” – that are captured by the term and offers several explanations for why state and non-state actors are drawn to these strategies. The analysis highlights why defense postures based on deterrence are especially vulnerable to the short-of-war strategies that populate the “Gray Zone.” The article concludes by suggesting how defense officials might adapt defense policies to life in the “Gray Zone.”     

Economic Losses From a Fire in a Dense-Packed U.S. Spent Fuel Pool

In 2013, the staff of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission estimated the reduction of the off-site economic losses from a fire in a drained U.S. spent fuel pool if fuel that had cooled for more than five years were transferred to dry cask storage—an option it called “expedited transfer.” In this article, it is shown that the savings would be much higher than the NRC estimated. Savings increase to about $2 trillion if: losses beyond 50 miles are included; the land-contamination threshold for long-term population relocation is changed to that used for the Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents and recommended by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; and, based on the experience of Japan, decontamination of land areas to levels acceptable for population return is assumed to take at least four years. If expedited transfer were implemented, the off-site economic losses would be reduced by about 98%.     

Interactive solution of bi-criteria mathematical programs

In this paper, we develop efficient interactive methods for the solution of bicriteria nonlinear programming problems. The methods do not require trade-off information from the decision maker, pose less cognitive burden and converge to the “best compromise solution” fast. Two methods, called the paired comparison method and comparative trade-off method, are presented with examples. A real application of the interactive method to a bicriteria problem that arose in the planning of the cardiovascular disease control program in the U.S. Air Force is also presented.