潜艇上浮运动数值计算方法的研究与验证

预报潜艇上浮运动是探索研究潜艇上浮运动控制规律以及潜艇安全上浮的前提。就潜艇上浮运动的数值计算方法和计算流程进行了详细介绍,对数值计算方法中的湍流模型及离散格式等进行了优选。基于模型上浮试验结果,对数值计算的不确定度进行了分析且对数值计算结果进行了验证。证明了该数值计算的可靠性,并发现数值计算结果与试验结果很接近,验证了该数值计算方法的可行性,说明该数值计算方法和试验可为潜艇上浮运动的研究提供参考和借鉴。     

一类不确定大系统的分散变结构模型跟随控制

针对一类具有不确定参数和外界扰动的非线性大系统 ,在子系统互连项上界具有多项式形式的条件下 ,提出了一种分散变结构模型跟随控制器设计方案。该控制器不需要未知参数变化、外界扰动以及子系统互连上界的先验信息 ,能够通过自适应率对上述信息进行在线估计。在保证闭环大系统渐近稳定的条件下 ,同时实现了各个子系统滑动模态的存在性和可达性。理论分析和仿真结果验证了本文所提方案的有效性     

Production to order and off‐line inspection when the production process is partially observable

This study combines inspection and lot‐sizing decisions. The issue is whether to INSPECT another unit or PRODUCE a new lot. A unit produced is either conforming or defective. Demand need to be satisfied in full, by conforming units only. The production process may switch from a “good” state to a “bad” state, at constant rate. The proportion of conforming units in the good state is higher than in the bad state. The true state is unobservable and can only be inferred from the quality of units inspected. We thus update, after each inspection, the probability that the unit, next candidate for inspection, was produced while the production process was in the good state. That “good‐state‐probability” is the basis for our decision to INSPECT or PRODUCE. We prove that the optimal policy has a simple form: INSPECT only if the good‐state‐probability exceeds a control limit. We provide a methodology to calculate the optimal lot size and the expected costs associated with INSPECT and PRODUCE. Surprisingly, we find that the control limit, as a function of the demand (and other problem parameters) is not necessarily monotone. Also, counter to intuition, it is possible that the optimal action is PRODUCE, after revealing a conforming unit. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

用非概率理论分析混合不确定性结构的可靠性

针对不确定性结构可靠性分析中的输入变量分布参数具有不确定性和输入变量为区间模型的混合不确定性结构展开研究。考虑到可用信息最少的情况,将分布参数的不确定性描述为区间模型。通过等概率转换方法将随机变量与其分布参数进行分离,使问题转化为随机与区间变量混合的可靠性问题,建立了混合不确定性问题的可靠性分析模型。基于非概率可靠性理论,建立混合不确定结构分析模型的二级极限状态函数并结合Kriging代理模型建立了高效的求解方法。将所建立的混合不确定模型应用于飞行器结构的不确定性分析中,验证了所建模型的合理性和所提方法的高效性和准确性。     

An adaptive forecasting algorithm and inventory policy for products with short life cycles

Products with short life cycles are becoming increasingly common in many industries, such as the personal computer (PC) and mobile phone industries. Traditional forecasting methods and inventory policies can be inappropriate for forecasting demand and managing inventory for a product with a short life cycle because they usually do not take into account the characteristics of the product life cycle. This can result in inaccurate forecasts, high inventory cost, and low service levels. Besides, many forecasting methods require a significant demand history, which is available only after the product has been sold for some time. In this paper, we present an adaptive forecasting algorithm with two characteristics. First, it uses structural knowledge on the product life cycle to model the demand. Second, it combines knowledge on the demand that is available prior to the launch of the product with actual demand data that become available after the introduction of the product to generate and update demand forecasts. Based on the forecasting algorithm, we develop an optimal inventory policy. Since the optimal inventory policy is computationally expensive, we propose three heuristics and show in a numerical study that one of the heuristics generates near‐optimal solutions. The evaluation of our approach is based on demand data from a leading PC manufacturer in the United States, where the forecasting algorithm has been implemented. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004.     

Optimization of schedule stability and efficiency under processing time variability and random machine breakdowns in a job shop environment

The ability to cope with uncertainty in dynamic scheduling environments is becoming an increasingly important issue. In such environments, any disruption in the production schedule will translate into a disturbance of the plans for several external activities as well. Hence, from a practical point of view, deviations between the planned and realized schedules are to be avoided as much as possible. The term stability refers to this concern. We propose a proactive approach to generate efficient and stable schedules for a job shop subject to processing time variability and random machine breakdowns. In our approach, efficiency is measured by the makespan, and the stability measure is the sum of the variances of the realized completion times. Because the calculation of the original measure is mathematically intractable, we develop a surrogate stability measure. The version of the problem with the surrogate stability measure is proven to be NP‐hard, even without machine breakdowns; a branch‐and‐bound algorithm is developed for this problem variant. A tabu search algorithm is proposed to handle larger instances of the problem with machine breakdowns. The results of extensive computational experiments indicate that the proposed algorithms are quite promising in performance. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

Dual sourcing: Responsive hedging against correlated supply and demand uncertainty

This article analyzes dual sourcing decisions under stochastically dependent supply and demand uncertainty. A manufacturer faces the trade‐off between investing in unreliable but high‐margin offshore supply and in reliable but low‐margin local supply, where the latter allows for production that is responsively contingent on the actual demand and offshore supply conditions. Cost thresholds for both types of supply determine the optimal resource allocation: single offshore sourcing, single responsive sourcing, or dual sourcing. Relying on the concept of concordance orders, we study the effects of correlation between supply and demand uncertainty. Adding offshore supply to the sourcing portfolio becomes more favorable under positive correlation, since offshore supply is likely to satisfy demand when needed. Selecting responsive capacity under correlated supply and demand uncertainty is not as straightforward, yet we establish the managerially relevant conditions under which responsive capacity either gains or loses in importance. Our key results are extended to the broad class of endogenous supply uncertainty developed by Dada et al. [Manufact Serv Operat Mange 9 (2007), 9–32].© 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2012     

对当前消防部队信息化建设的思考

目前消防部队信息化建设取得了初步成效,但与部队需求还存在一定差距,存在着对信息化建设认识不够高、信息化应用不深入、专业人才偏少、人员素质偏低、投入资金不足等问题,并针对存在的问题提出了解决对策。     

舰船装备随行备件量需求规律分析

通过对舰船装备备件需求影响因素的分析 ,从理论上推导了备件需求的分布规律 ,在此基础上建立了舰船级备件典型需求模型 ,并且对典型的故障分布模型进行了推广     

Effectiveness of (R,Q) policies in one‐warehouse multiretailer systems with deterministic demand and backlogging

Consider a distribution system with a central warehouse and multiple retailers. Customer demand arrives at each of the retailers continuously at a constant rate. The retailers replenish their inventories from the warehouse which in turn orders from an outside supplier with unlimited stock. There are economies of scale in replenishing the inventories at both the warehouse and the retail level. Stockouts at the retailers are backlogged. The system incurs holding and backorder costs. The objective is to minimize the long‐run average total cost in the system. This paper studies the cost effectiveness of (R, Q) policies in the above system. Under an (R, Q) policy, each facility orders a fixed quantity Q from its supplier every time its inventory position reaches a reorder point R. It is shown that (R, Q) policies are at least 76% effective. Numerical examples are provided to further illustrate the cost effectiveness of (R, Q) policies. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 47: 422–439, 2000