Some aspects in estimating warranty and post‐warranty repair demands

When customers buy a product, they are often eligible for free repairs for a certain warranty period. In this article, we study some important aspects, which are often overlooked in the literature but are of interest to the manufacturer, in estimating both warranty and post‐warranty repair demands. We consider that the installed base of the product (i.e., the number of units of the product actually in use) varies with time due to both new sales and units being taken out of service. When estimating warranty and post‐warranty repair demands, we explicitly address the fact that customers may not always request repairs for failed units. For the case where the product failure time distribution is exponential, we derive the closed‐form expressions for both types of repair demands of a single unit and of the time‐varying installed base. The insights into some risk‐related quantities are also presented. Furthermore, the proposed model is extended by considering delayed warranty claims that are frequently seen in practice. Numerical examples illustrate that understanding both types of repair demands and the related decision variables is important for managing the obligatory and profitable repair services. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 60: 499–511, 2013     

SECURITY GOVERNANCE IN SOUTH AFRICA

In the ten years since the establishment of South Africa's first inclusive democratic government, an ambitious, extensive and systematic process of reform has been carried out in the governance of security. The process is widely regarded as having been successful and a model for other processes of ‘security sector reform’ in the context of transitions from authoritarian forms of governance to democratic ones.

That this been achieved with hardly a shot fired in anger is a remarkable achievement and a credit to visionary political leadership as well as organisational capacity, in other words to effective security governance.

At the same time, progress has been uneven and sometimes fragmentary, policy intentions and commitments have not always been translated into practice, the end results have not been to everyone's liking, and transformation has engendered its own pathologies. Thus several challenges remain in improving security governance.

This article provides a broad overview of the roles played by the various actors in the governance of the security sector, including the executive, parliament and civil society. It examines the main policy frameworks and touches on organisational transformation, because it is impossible to deal with governance in isolation from these issues. Policy processes and the frameworks they give rise to—in particular—are critical for effective governance. This article deals with the defence, safety and security and intelligence fields. A comprehensive overview would need to include the governance of criminal justice and foreign policy. The article does not seek to make an overall evaluation of governance, but to identify achievements, shortfalls and challenges.     

空域频域不确定条件下电磁探测卫星规划方法研究

电磁探测卫星对区域目标的覆盖搜索在反恐及海上搜救等领域发挥着重要作用.针对电磁探测卫星区域搜索任务中存在的空域频域不确定性,构建了电磁探测卫星区域搜索问题(EDSASP)中不确定因素的量化描述模型及决策要素模型,提出了基于贝叶斯决策的电磁卫星任务规划方法,并以信息探测收益和前端截获收益为优化目标,建立了空域频域不确定条...     

受符号调制的m序列旁瓣特性研究

m序列因其优良的二值自相关特性而广泛应用于雷达和通信系统中。存在符号调制时 ,m序列匹配接收的旁瓣特性不再具有二值性。研究表明 :对于生成多项式相同的m序列 ,当移位寄存器的初始状态不同时 ,其符号调制下的旁瓣特性存在明显差异。选择合适的初始状态 ,可以得到较高的主旁瓣比。采用旁瓣抑制滤波器可以进一步显著提升主旁瓣比     

Risk communication within military decision-making: pedagogic considerations

Risk management is a decision-support process and a vital tool for military planning and decision-making. Today, several nations utilize risk-based approaches to analyze the level of security in military operations. There are both strengths and challenges in applying risk-based approaches to support military decisions. In this article, the challenges related to risk communication are investigated with the aim of describing how a military organization should train to create a good environment for effective risk communication. The analysis finds that it is important for the organization to define and consistently use a shared risk understanding. Such a shared risk understanding will need a systematic development process that focuses on the future decision makers’ and analysts’ education and training. To reach understanding, all involved parties must have the chance to identify the problem, reflect on its implications, test different solutions and develop a solution.     

一类不匹配不确定非线性系统鲁棒变结构控制

针对一类具有不匹配非参数化不确定性的非线性系统 ,设计出一种鲁棒变结构控制器。该控制器能够保证当时间 t趋于无穷时 ,闭环控制系统的输出跟踪误差趋于零。仿真实例说明了该控制器具有满意的控制效果     

考虑不确定参数及外部扰动数字液压缸非线性鲁棒位置跟踪控制

在考虑不确定参数及外部扰动的情况下为数字液压缸位置跟踪系统设计了一个非线性控制器。首先,建立了数字液压缸位置跟踪系统的非线性模型;然后,构造了一个李雅普诺夫函数及非线性控制器,推导了系统鲁棒稳定的充分条件,由此将非线性控制器的设计问题转化成为线性矩阵不等式的求解问题;最后,进行了仿真及实验验证。结果表明:所设计的控制器对于参数不确定性及外部扰动具有良好的鲁棒稳定性及更好的动态特性。