INTRODUCTION: THE DYNAMICS OF NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT

Decisionmaking processes leading to the acquisition of nuclear weapons by democratic states have served as the basis for theories about nuclear proliferation. In contrast, less is known about how a totalitarian regime responds to immense external pressure to abolish unconventional weapons it considers crucial for its security and survival. This article will analyze how we can explain Iraq's behavior after the passing of Resolution 1441 and during the United Nations inspections in 2002–2003.     

交通场景行人穿越检测方法进展研究

随着自动驾驶和计算机视觉技术的飞速发展,人们对交通安全的重视程度越来越高。其中,交通场景中行人穿越检测问题是研究的热点与难点之一。对行人穿越检测这一领域进行了综合评述,并对未来研究进行了展望。按照行人试图穿越、正在穿越及穿越预测三个阶段进行分析,首先分析了基于行人姿态穿越意图的研究进展(试图穿越),包括人体姿态、数据驱动和高斯动力学模型三个方面;其次讨论了基于轨迹跟踪的穿越行为检测方法(正在穿越);然后概括了基于轨迹预测的行人穿越检测方法(穿越预测);最后总结了现阶段比较新颖的多传感融合、车路协同、车联网等研究角度,并对未来该领域需重点发展的方向提出建议。     

基于DDS的编队协同防空火控系统集成技术研究

针对舰艇编队的协同防空作战需求,对舰艇编队的火控系统集成技术展开了研究,提出基于DDS集成技术的编队协同防空火控体系架构。其中,采用以数据为中心的发布/订阅模型可以做到火控数据的按需分发,避免冗余传输;同时能够形成松耦合、开放式的体系结构,使系统架构具有动态自组织特性。使用QoS策略能够有效地控制和管理网络及硬件资源,实现数据分发的高实时性和高可靠性。根据测试结果分析,基于DDS的集成技术可以较好地满足协同防空火控系统的集成需求。     

防空监视网络传感器的协作管理

针对防空监视网络的传感器管理问题,讨论了基于多Agent技术的协作管理策略。通过对防空监视网络传感器协作行为的分析,建立了传感器的协作行为模型。结合防空监视传感器的功能,设计了传感器Agent的结构模型。依据防空监视网络传感器的使命要求和完成任务能力,提出了防空监视网络传感器Agent的协商处理策略。     

The next step in Somalia: exploiting victory,post-Mogadishu

From 2006 to 2011, al-Qaeda's East African proxy, al-Shabaab, served as the de facto ruling party of Somalia despite the efforts of the internationally recognised Transitional Federal Government (TFG). During these five years, a violent struggle between al-Shabaab and the peacekeeping force of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) resulted in thousands of dead civilians, hundreds of thousands of internally displaced persons and a strategic environment inhospitable to reconciliation, recovery or development. By 2012, AMISOM was able to break the deadlock and force al-Shabaab from Mogadishu and Kismayo. In order to continue the momentum, the African Union and other partner nations must support the TFG in neutralising al-Shabaab throughout Somalia and providing good governance to its constituents. Al-Shabaab's revenue streams must be shut down and its offensive capability must be degraded while the strategic environment is shaped to ensure that conditions conducive to a revival do not exist. Failure to do so will likely see Somalia continuing to produce Islamist extremists and pirates to menace international maritime traffic in the western Indian Ocean, destabilise East Africa and adversely impact millions.     

NUCLEAR REDUCTIONS AND MIDDLE EAST STABILITY

The United States faces a series of strategic and policy conundrums as it attempts to promote strategic stability in the Persian Gulf and the wider Middle East. This article examines the relationship between a reduced US nuclear arsenal and strategic stability in the Persian Gulf and the Middle East. It argues that a series of interrelated political and military factors play a much more significant role in regional security and stability than the US strategic arsenal, which has never, with a few extraordinary exceptions, played a direct role in maintaining regional security. The United States has constructed a system of regional stability based on conventional deterrence and defense that has seen it forward base forces at various installations in the region in combination with efforts to arm, train, and equip host-nation militaries. Nuclear weapons have never played a prominent role in this regional system. Evidence presented in this article suggests that there is no compelling reason for the United States to abandon and/or modify the defensive system of conventional deterrence and defense by adding nuclear-backed guarantees to the mix.     

一个多Agent系统合作模型

从多Agent系统的组成结构出发,综述合作问题的理论机制,提出了采用多Agent系统模型来求解逻辑推理问题的方法,根据各Agent自身意图,相互合作以达成群体目标。     

上海合作组织框架下中国新疆与周边国家恐怖主义犯罪及打击对策

在环新疆经济圈新疆主体功能区的建设中，恐怖主义犯罪对该经济圈的建设构成重大威胁。本文就上海合作组织框架下新疆及周边国家的恐怖主义犯罪活动对环新疆经济圈的危害，以及如何有效打击该地区的恐怖主义犯罪进行了分析并提出相应的对策。     

The Strategic Use of Soft Balancing: The Normative Dimensions of the Chinese–Russian ‘Strategic Partnership’

This article examines Chinese and Russian foreign policy and military strategy from the theoretical standpoint of soft balancing. Analysis of their thinking indicates that both seek to offset US military superiority without engaging American power directly. To that end, Chinese and Russian strategists have adopted ‘soft’ or ‘normative’ power assets as strategic capabilities in their military and foreign policy. Alternative norms, such as the concept of ‘sovereign democracy’, allow China and Russia to deliberately ignore human rights issues in order to achieve diplomatic advantage with respect to the United States. The two powers have institutionalized these norms within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which they use to counterbalance US interests in Central Asia.