基于效能分析的工程建设投资分配模型研究

分析了基数滚动切块和层次分析-目标规划(AnalyticHierarchyProcessandGoalProgramming)投资分配模型的利弊,探讨了工程建设投资效能的估计方法,研究建立了基于效能分析的投资分配优化模型.该模型经实际算例分析证明,模型的思路清晰,便于理解和操作,具有较好的实用性.     

项目投资决策系统的设计与实现

探讨了一种国防支出项目投资决策系统的设计与实现方法,建立了实现项目投资决策的两个数学模型,通过这两个模型为最终投资安排提供了一个较为规范、科学的辅助决策依据。     

THE CASE FOR DEFENCE

What is the case for defence and is it a worthwhile investment? This question is addressed for two contrasting nations, namely, the UK and New Zealand. Economists have a set of standard analytical tools for addressing the question but they are difficult to operationalise. This paper provides policy‐relevant answers.     

The inherent propensity toward peace or war embodied in weaponry

Thomas Schelling argues that armed adversaries face an inherent propensity toward peace or war embodied in their weaponry, geography and military organizations. Inherent propensity is the idea that there are characteristics embodied in the weapons that push adversaries toward peace or war, independent of the goals of the decision‐makers, the political disagreement between adversaries, and misperceptions about mutual resolve and hostility. We theoretically illustrate inherent propensity in conventional and nuclear arms settings using Lanchester and Intriligator war models. Our work extends the Intriligator‐Brito model, identifies when the competing Richardson and Intriligator‐Brito views of the relationship between arms races and war are correct, illustrates the stabilizing/destabilizing effects of alliances, and highlights the importance of arms quality control in the US‐USSR relationship.     

新疆固定资产投资环境与趋势分析

截止目前，新疆固定资产投资运行情况比较平稳，与全国相比，投资增速处于中等水平。全社会固定资产投资预计完成1595亿元，增长18％。建成和开工建设了一大批重大基础设施和重点基础产业项目，投资结构进一步改善，农业、水利、交通、能源、生态建设、社会事业等薄弱环节投资力度明显加大，生态环境保护建设取得明显成效。     

15000m~3钢板贴壁油罐建设静态投资分析

以部队某保障基地油库军用柴油扩容工程采用钢板贴壁工艺新建的1座15 000 m3地下水封油池为例,从技术经济学角度对钢板贴壁油罐作了静态投资分析。该钢板贴壁油罐静态总投资1 756.95万元,其中占总投资比例最高者为地下工程建设,达到53.76%,库容投资1 171.30元/m3。结果表明:钢板贴壁油罐较地下水封石洞油罐整体经济效益明显;投资定额可供编制预算参考。     

论国外开发落后地区的财政金融政策──兼谈对我国西部大开发的借鉴

国外在开发落后地区的政策方面已经积累了许多成功的经验和失败的教训。财政政策上涉及转移支付、财政补助、政府赠款、政府采购、税收优惠等。金融政策上涉及优惠贷款、贷款担保、资金跨区流动、投资基金等。这些对我国西部大开发都有着一定的借鉴意义。     

Factors influencing the modernization of military-investment economic appraisal systems

Budgetary restrictions resulting from the present international economic crisis have tightened the need to improve efficiency in defense spending, leading to the armed forces having to undertake their duties with fewer resources. Previous reports on the subject have looked into the determining factors and effects of military spending but very few studies have analyzed the determinants for the modernization of the methodology for assessing efficiency. Thus, using a multiple regression statistical model, we have analyzed the appraisal systems in place in 28 countries to identify factors that influence the development of economic assessment of military expenditure. Our findings have revealed three factors that may favor the improvement of appraisal systems with regard to military expenditure: the quality of governance, size of the armed forces, and unemployment levels.     

Social benefits of government investment in enterprises

A critical issue for many governments is boosting the adoption rates of products or technologies that enhance consumer surplus or total social welfare. Governments may, for example, pay subsidies to producers or to consumers to stimulate the manufacture or consumption of specific products, for example, energy-efficient appliances or more effective drugs. This research proposes a strategic government investment policy, namely, share acquisition, and demonstrates its effectiveness in reaching societal objectives. We consider a Cournot quantities-choice market comprised of homogeneous firms where the government intervenes to buy shares, and turning private firms into state-owned enterprises. We recognize that purchasing a single private firm is the optimal policy for the government to reach its societal objectives. Additionally, taking into consideration financial constraints, we find that the optimal stake increases with the budget. Compared with the optimal output-based subsidy policy, when the budget is low, the optimal government investment policy induces a higher consumer surplus. In addition, in differentiated Cournot competition, under which firms compete in selling substitutable products, we find that when the budget is sufficient, the optimal stake purchased first decreases and then increases according to the substitutability level among products.     

武器系统研制费投资分布规律的仿真研究

针对大型项目多峰、复杂费用分布的传统仿真建模方法模型选取过于复杂、且难以达到精度要求等不足,提出将一种基于支持向量机的机器学习方法应用于大型复杂武器系统研制费投资分布研究.计算结果表明,这种方法有效弥补了传统建模方法的缺陷,有更好的泛化能力和实用性,因而可以作为研究此类问题的一种新方法.