基于事故树分析法的火灾致灾因素分析

基于事故树分析法对火灾中的致灾因素进行分析，通过对近十年51起重、特大火灾进行归纳、统计，利用火灾调查理论知识与事故树相结合，将火灾中的致灾因素分为起火原因、火灾中人员伤亡因素、造成财产损失原因进行分类统计，并利用最小割集和最小径集，计算出顶上事件的发生概率。最后对事故树进行分析讨论，找出避免顶上事件发生的措施，得出减少或消除火灾致灾的对策，为做好重、特大火灾的预防工作提供了参考。

The Analysis of Fire Hazard Factors Based on the Tree Analysis Approach

Based on the tree analysis approach of fire hazard factors, and through statistics of 51 cranes or catastrophic fire in the past 10 years, and integrate the fire investigation knowledge and the tree to divide the factors of fire hazard into three parts： the cause of fire, the fire casualties, and the reasons causing property damage, then respectively classify each part to make a fault tree. Through the simplification of the tree by Boolean algebra, obtained the minimal cut sets and the path set, identify the important events through structural importance and to make use of the smallest and most cut - set trails to calculate the probability of the top incident. Finally, analyze a new tree based on the top incidents of fault trees of the cause of fire, the fire casualties, and the reasons causing property damage, with the factors of fire hazard being the top incident of the new tree, and discuss the factors that identify the incidents, to find an countermeasure that can reduce or eliminate the fire hazard.