A trajectory for homeland ballistic missile defense

The Ground-based Midcourse Defense system is intended to protect the US homeland against limited attacks from intermediate- and long-range ballistic missiles. It has succeeded in intercepting target missiles and can engage a threat launched from North Korea or the Middle East, targeting any point in the USA. Nevertheless, high-profile struggles and program changes related to homeland ballistic missile defense (BMD) continue to make headlines. The most significant struggle has been a string of three straight intercept test failures over five years, followed by the recent successful intercept test in June 2014. This article first briefly reviews the current threats of concern. It then examines homeland BMD policy objectives, followed by the current major technical issues in supporting these objectives and, then, the likelihood of negating a warhead. Finally, it highlights major considerations that should be part of the trajectory the US government takes moving forward.     

弹道导弹防御系统效能分析与措施研究

简要介绍了弹道导弹防御系统的组成 ,提供了系统作战效能计算的主要思想、方法 ,给出了概率计算模型。根据分析结果 ,结合现代战争的作战方式和导弹防御系统的作战特点 ,提出了提高弹道导弹防御系统作战效能的技术和战术措施。     

‘A fly in outer space’: Soviet ballistic missile defence during the Khrushchev period

Although the Soviet missile defence effort was begun to protect the USSR from attack by nuclear missiles, Khrushchev was quick to see its political value, and used the prospect of an anti‐ballistic missile system to emphasize Soviet technological superiority. Within the Soviet armed forces there was widespread consensus about the importance of ABM's damage‐limiting role. The debates about strategy for future war in Soviet military publications demonstrate that support in the armed forces for an ABM capability transcended service loyalties and remained remarkably strong even after 1962, when technical problems and an effort to improve relations with the US following the Cuban Missile Crisis meant that the missile defence project no longer enjoyed the public backing of senior Party and military figures.     

基于系统动力学的导弹综合防护体系仿真

在未来高技术战争中,弹道导弹武器的作用越来越大,它已成为各国战略威胁手段和对敌实施纵深打击的主要力量之一,也是敌攻击的首选目标,因此对导弹阵地综合防护体系的研究就显得十分重要.在给出导弹阵地综合防护体系的框架后,建立了基于系统动力学的综合防护体系模型,在不同仿真条件下对模型进行仿真并分析了仿真结果,得出了对综合防护体系效能影响大的因素.     

Russia,America and missile defense

Russia has sharply objected to US plans for ballistic missile defense. The Russian official explanation is that the real purpose of the US missile defense plan is to make it impossible for Russia to retaliate against a US nuclear (or massive conventional) attack, thus making Russia subject to military blackmail by the US. The Russian response has been the result of a sum total of various factors, mostly political and cultural, while the technical capabilities of the proposed system have played a secondary role.     

弹道导弹防御系统的现状与发展

本文综述了美国退出《反弹道导弹条约》以来,如何调整弹道导弹防御计划,制定新的发展战略,实施各种防御技术,初步建立防御能力,并论述了美国弹道导弹防御系统的现状与发展趋势。     

战术导弹攻防对抗模拟

利用最小能量原理,构造一种简易战术弹道导弹(TBM)弹道用于攻防对抗仿真;依据美国"爱国者"反导导弹PAC-3基本拦截原理,构造了一种逆轨拦截反导弹道模型;利用上述攻防仿真平台,计算分析拦截弹最佳拦截制导方式(中、末制导交班点的确定),分析拦截弹过载变化情况.     

多层弹道导弹防御体系火力分配优化研究

对多层弹道导弹防御体系火力分配问题进行了研究。首先对多层弹道导弹防御体系火力分配问题进行了描述,在此基础上建立了基于最大化资源剩余价值目标函数的多层弹道导弹防御体系火力分配模型,分析了求解该模型的难点,提出了基于文化基因的多层弹道导弹防御体系火力分配问题文化基因求解算法,最后应用实例验证了模型的有效性,并对算法进行了对比分析。试验结果证明,合理制定多层弹道导弹防御体系火力分配方案,对于提升防御效能具有重要意义。     

The symbolic politics of ballistic missile defense: seeking the perfect defense in an imperfect world

Ballistic missile defense (BMD) politics present an interesting evolution in how the USA, especially Congress, has come to think about BMD both as operational reality and as a symbolic policy. The argument here is that BMD's operational reality is increasingly overshadowed by its symbolic aspects. Such a status arose from rapidly changing international and domestic politics. The end result is a situation in which BMD policy in a sense floats above the question of its actual combat effectiveness. Its primary mission in part is sustaining US capacity to remain a global power and support its allies.     

导弹防御系统中的雷达目标识别研究

以评估美国国家导弹防御(NMD)系统雷达识别能力为背景,分析了地基雷达识别弹道导弹目标的技术途径。根据弹道导弹目标群在飞行中段和再入段表现出的特性差异,提出了涉及目标结构特性、姿态特性以及再入特性的综合识别策略,并初步分析了各种识别措施的可行性。     

Boost-glide Weapons and US-China Strategic Stability

ABSTRACT

The United States and China are testing boost-glide weapons, long-range strike systems capable of flying at Mach 5 or faster through the upper atmosphere. For the United States, these systems would provide a conventional prompt global strike capability, which, together with US ballistic missile defense programs, Chinese experts regard as a threat to China's ability to conduct nuclear retaliation. This perception is encouraging the Chinese military to modify its nuclear posture in ways that tend to create greater risks for both sides. If China's own boost-glide systems are meant to carry nuclear payloads only, their deployment would not fundamentally alter the current situation between the two states. However, if they were conventionally armed or dual-purpose, or if the United States could not determine the payloads they carried, the deployment of Chinese boost-glide systems could compound problems of strategic stability created by the introduction of ballistic missile defense, antisatellite, and antiship ballistic missile capabilities. If the technical hurdles can be overcome, it may be difficult for the two sides to refrain from these deployments in the absence of strong mutual trust or an established arms-control relationship. New confidence-building measures and expanded mutual transparency are warranted to avoid creating new dangers.     

平流层飞艇高能激光武器防御弹道导弹

防御弹道导弹逐渐受到世界各国的重视,扩大拦截窗口是重要的发展趋势之一。平流层飞艇有可能通过艇载激光武器或者中继反射地基激光两种方式拦截自由段弹道导弹,为评估这两种方式的拦截效果和可行性,本文分析了平流层飞艇搭载高能激光武器的可能性以及中继反射作战方式的特点,建立了激光烧蚀模型,采用数值计算方法对激光的烧蚀效果进行了研究,结果表明平流层飞艇部署位置应距离导弹发射点800～1000km,平流层中继激光飞艇能够在短时间内引爆弹头,艇载激光武器采用烧蚀弹头防热层的方法同样可以达到拦截弹道导弹的目的。     

Constraining missile defence†

Assessing missile defence through the prism of offence–defence theory requires primarily an examination of legal and structural constraints on future development. New weapons technology is frequently cited as having the most critical impact on the offence–defence balance. Yet, the method for assessing the introduction of a new weapons technology tends to neglect projected maturity and instead focus excessively on the initial rudimentary capabilities. It is argued here that the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation’s (NATO’s) missile defence is set to incrementally become more advanced in terms of quality, quantity and mobility, which is supported by a strategy that is increasingly favouring offence. As the system gradually enhances the offensive advantage vis-à-vis Russia, NATO categorically rejects any legal or structural constraints on future deployments.     

弹道导弹防御中多目标拦截的策略

多目标拦截是弹道导弹防御的重大难题,也是目前美国导弹防御系统所遇到的最大的技术难点。在将多目标问题分为单弹头攻击和多弹头攻击2类问题的基础上,结合美国的相关研究计划,分别针对核爆炸防御、助推段防御、先进的目标识别器和多拦截器防御等多目标拦截策略进行了分析研究。     

俄罗斯对抗美国NMD系统的战略构想与实践

为谋求外层空间作战的绝对战略优势,2002年6月美国正式退出《反弹道导弹条约》并加快部署NMD系统。综述了俄罗斯应对美国部署NMD系统的战略和措施。     

基于ExtendSim的小高炮武器系统抗击超音速巡航导弹仿真分析

目前超音速巡航导弹对要地防空的安全威胁越来越严峻,研究高炮部队在各种配置情况下抗击超音速巡航导弹的作战效能日益受到重视。首先对超音速巡航导弹来袭弹道和高炮抗击过程进行分析,在此基础上设计了高炮反导作战仿真流程,随后基于流程构建ExtendSim仿真模型评估高炮部队在各种配置情况下的作战效能,最后对仿真结果进行分析比较研究,所得结论为高炮部队抗击超音速巡航导弹作战配置提供了基本参考和依据。     

“This program will not be a threat to them”: Ballistic Missile Defense and US relations with Russia and China

Although the Obama Administration has differed from its predecessor in a number of respects, on the specific issue of Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD), there is a striking continuity. The Obama Administration has remained committed to the BMD project, even as it has modified the schedule of deployments and prioritized different systems from the Bush Administration. Significantly, this has led to Chinese and Russian balancing in the nuclear sphere. As a result, there is evidence of a security dilemma-type dynamics in US relations with China and Russia. At present, there is no study that analyzes Russian and Chinese hard internal balancing against the USA in the sphere of missile defense during the Obama Administration. This article fills this gap.     

基于ExtendSim的小高炮武器系统抗击超音速巡航导弹分析

目前超音速巡航导弹对要地防空的安全威胁越来越严峻,研究高炮部队在各种配置情况下抗击超音速巡航导弹的作战效能日益受到重视。首先对超音速巡航导弹来袭弹道和高炮抗击过程进行分析,在此基础上设计了高炮反导作战仿真流程,随后基于流程构建ExtendSim仿真模型评估高炮部队在各种配置情况下的作战效能,最后对仿真结果进行分析比较,所得结论为高炮部队抗击超音速巡航导弹作战配置提供了基本参考和依据。     

基于时频分布的弹道导弹目标识别方法

在弹道导弹目标识别中,微动特征是重要的识别手段。从弹道导弹微动特性时频分析出发,提出一种基于时频分布的弹道导弹目标识别方法。该方法将时频分布图的伪Zeinike不变矩特征作为识别特征。首先对回波信号进行时频变换以获取时频图像;然后为了降低噪声的影响,对其进行图形预处理;最后给出了伪Zernike不变矩提取步骤及识别特征的选取原则。通过仿真实验,分析了不同特征组合对识别率的影响,评估了不同信噪比下识别方法的稳定性。实验结果表明,该方法具有一定稳定性,可用于弹道导弹目标识别。     

弹道导弹打击航空母舰末制导有效区的确定与评估

在地地弹道式导弹与航空母舰攻防对抗中,需要研究航母是否在导弹进攻的有效区内。针对具有末制导的弹道式导弹具有再入机动变轨特性,建立了导弹再入机动飞行模型,提出了导弹在不同的再入条件下,对其飞行弹道及机动能力进行仿真计算的方法,通过仿真确定出了导弹打击航空母舰的有效区域。在此基础上,探讨了导弹在以不同的再入姿态、不同的再入飞行高度实施末制导时,导弹落点的有效区域、边界外形及有效区的变化范围。从所得结果来看,所建模型及仿真方法正确可行,在一定程度上解决了弹道导弹打击航空母舰战斗群作战保障急需解决的一些问题。