The evolution of a selection system

The article is a case study. It describes the initialization and subsequent modifications of the selection process used for the annual Award for Excellence in Teaching at the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS). The method treats highly unbalanced data and utilizes some exploratory data analysis techniques in interesting ways. It leads to a defensible choice for a winner in a very messy setting. The award designates a faculty member as “teacher of the year” and includes a stipend of substantial value. The recipient is chosen by a committee which reviews objective information summarized from ballots submitted by franchised voters. The issues encountered have some general content and the handling of a number of them may have broader interest. ©John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

1 This article is a US Government work and, as such, is in the public domain in the United States of America.

     

Readiness and the optimal redeployment of resources

This paper considers the problem of the optimal redeployment of a resource among different geographical locations. Initially, it is assumed that at each location i, i = 1,…, n, the level of availability of the resource is given by a₁ ≧ 0. At time t > 0, requirements R_f(t) ≧ 0 are imposed on each location which, in general, will differ from the a₁. The resource can be transported from any one location to any other in magnitudes which will depend on t and the distance between these locations. It is assumed that ΣR_j > Σa_t The objective function consideis, in addition to transportation costs incurred by reallocation, the degree to which the resource availabilities after redeployment differ from the requirements. We shall associate the unavailabilities at the locations with the unreadiness of the system and discuss the optimal redeployment in terms of the minimization of the following functional forms: \documentclass{article}\pagestyle{empty}\begin{document}$ \sum\limits_{j = 1}^n {kj(Rj - yj) + } $\end{document} transportation costs, Max \documentclass{article}\pagestyle{empty}\begin{document}$ \mathop {Max}\limits_j \,[kj(Rj - yj)] + $\end{document} transportation costs, and \documentclass{article}\pagestyle{empty}\begin{document}$ \sum\limits_{j = 1}^n {kj(Rj - yj)^2 + } $\end{document} transportation costs. The variables y_j represent the final amount of the resource available at location j. No benefits are assumed to accrue at any location if y_j > R_j. A numerical three location example is given and solved for the linear objective.     

Countering global insurgency

This article suggests that the War on Terrorism is actually a campaign against a globalized Islamist 1 1 In this article, the term ‘Islamist’ describes the extremist, radical form of political Islam practiced by some militant groups, as distinct from ‘Islamic’, which describes the religion of Islam, or ‘Muslim’, which describes those who follow the Islamic religion. In this article the term is used to refer primarily to Al Qaeda, its allies and affiliates. View all notes insurgency. Therefore, counterinsurgency approaches are more relevant to the present conflict than traditional terrorism theory. Indeed, a counterinsurgency approach would generate subtly, but substantially different, policy choices in prosecuting the war against Al Qaeda. Based on this analysis, the article proposes a strategy of ‘disaggregation’ that seeks to dismantle, or break, the links in the global jihad.2 2 This article uses the short form of the Islamic term jihad to mean ‘lesser jihad’ (armed struggle against unbelievers), rather than ‘greater jihad’ (jihad fi sabilillah), i.e. moral struggle for the righteousness of God. View all notes Like containment in the Cold War, disaggregation would provide a unifying strategic conception for the war – a conception that has been somewhat lacking to date.     

Problematising the Role of Private Security Companies in Small Wars

This article sets out to investigate the impact of Private Security Companies (PSCs)1 1. The term PSC is used generically in this article. on civil wars. In doing so, it has taken an historical line, outlining the way the industry has developed from when it first emerged on the international stage in the late 1960s, to the present. Importantly, the article is able to identify three broad strands of involvement in civil wars that include substituting for state military forces, propping up weak governments, and supplementing state militaries. Moreover, in each of these situations, the involvement of PSCs raises both moral and legal questions, as well as challenges for government. This is especially so in light of their activities in Iraq and Afghanistan and the likelihood that governments will increasingly turn to them for niche capabilities.     

The queueing system MX/G/1 and its ramifications

This paper deals with the bulk arrival queueing system M^X/G/1 and its ramifications. In the system M^X/G/1, customers arrive in groups of size X (a random variable) by a Poisson process, the service times distribution is general, and there is a single server. Although some results for this queueing system have appeared in various books, no unified account of these, as is being presented here, appears to have been reported so far. The chief objectives of the paper are (i) to unify by an elegant procedure the relationships between the p.g.f.'s

     

Skewness correction X̄ and R charts for skewed distributions

This paper proposes a skewness correction (SC) method for constructing the and R control charts for skewed process distributions. Their asymmetric control limits (about the central line) are based on the degree of skewness estimated from the subgroups, and no parameter assumptions are made on the form of process distribution. These charts are simply adjustments of the conventional Shewhart control charts. Moreover, the chart is almost the same as the Shewhart chart if the process distribution is known to be symmetrical. The new charts are compared with the Shewhart charts and weighted variance (WV) control charts. When the process distribution is in some neighborhood of Weibull, lognormal, Burr or binomial family, simulation shows that the SC control charts have Type I risk (i.e., probability of a false alarm) closer to 0.27% of the normal case. Even in the case where the process distribution is exponential with known mean, not only the control limits and Type I risk, but also the Type II risk of the SC charts are closer to those of the exact and R charts than those of the WV and Shewhart charts. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 50: 555–573, 2003     

基于多服务台等待机制的作战飞机出动强度研究

飞机出动强度是指挥人员对航空兵进行作战编组和任务区分的重要参考依据,对科学合理运用航空兵部队遂行作战任务具有重要影响。通过分析作战飞机空中活动和地面活动过程,探讨了影响作战飞机出动强度的因素,建立基于多服务台等待机制的作战飞机出动强度模型,并以此为基础进行了实例计算。     

Single batch machine scheduling with deliveries

We consider the problem of scheduling a set of n jobs on a single batch machine, where several jobs can be processed simultaneously. Each job j has a processing time p_j and a size s_j. All jobs are available for processing at time 0. The batch machine has a capacity D. Several jobs can be batched together and processed simultaneously, provided that the total size of the jobs in the batch does not exceed D. The processing time of a batch is the largest processing time among all jobs in the batch. There is a single vehicle available for delivery of the finished products to the customer, and the vehicle has capacity K. We assume that K = rD, where and r is an integer. The travel time of the vehicle is T; that is, T is the time from the manufacturer to the customer. Our goal is to find a schedule of the jobs and a delivery plan so that the service span is minimized, where the service span is the time that the last job is delivered to the customer. We show that if the jobs have identical sizes, then we can find a schedule and delivery plan in time such that the service span is minimum. If the jobs have identical processing times, then we can find a schedule and delivery plan in time such that the service span is asymptotically at most 11/9 times the optimal service span. When the jobs have arbitrary processing times and arbitrary sizes, then we can find a schedule and delivery plan in time such that the service span is asymptotically at most twice the optimal service span. We also derive upper bounds of the absolute worst‐case ratios in both cases. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 470–482, 2015     

Optimal multicommodity network flows with resource allocation

The problem of determining multicommodity flows over a capacitated network subject to resource constraints may be solved by linear programming; however, the number of potential vectors in most applications is such that the standard arc-chain formulation becomes impractical. This paper describes an approach—an extension of the column generation technique used in the multicommodity network flow problem—that simultaneously considers network chain selection and resource allocation, thus making the problem both manageable and optimal. The flow attained is constrained by resource availability and network capacity. A minimum-cost formulation is described and an extension to permit the substitution of resources is developed. Computational experience with the model is discussed.     

边消警文献信息资源保障体系建设构想

阐述了边消警文献信息资源保障体系建设的内涵和建设原则,从资源体系建设、服务体系建设、网络平台建设和保障体系建设等四方面对边消警文献信息资源保障体系建设的内容进行了探讨.     

The National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad factor in the Mali crisis

Mali has been a battleground for more than a year now. While the armed conflict came in the aftermath of the Libyan crisis that left the regional security environment depleted, it also served as a catalyst for the collapse of state authority in Mali. This created conditions conducive for the proliferation of, and attacks by, radical religious armed groups in the northern regions of the country, including the Tuareg armed movement: the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA). But, far from being a new phenomenon, the Tuareg-led armed insurrection in the northern regions is as old as the post-colonial Malian state, and continues to pose tremendous challenges in West Africa and the Sahel region for both regional and extra-regional actors. The recent crisis in the Sahel region is seen as one of the most serious since the end of the Cold War, with anticipated dire long-term impacts on the security of the region and beyond. While attention is predominantly focused on defeating the jihadist groups that have threatened the survival of the Malian state, one must not lose sight of the fact that the ‘Tuareg Factor’, as represented by the rebellion launched by MNLA, remains critical both in terms of appreciating the deterioration of the situation and attempting to frame long-lasting solutions. The paper argues that the Tuareg's persistent recourse to rebellion against Bamako needs to be understood within a historical trajectory that takes into consideration three key parameters: firstly, the post-colonial state in Mali and its African leadership's relations with the descendants of the Tuareg communities; secondly, the amalgamation created by the so-called war on terror; and, finally, the contradictions of the democratisation process of the 1990s.¹1 This article is based on field research carried out between 2008 and 2013 on the ‘Resurgence of Tuareg-led Rebellions’.     

Analysis of production lines with Coxian service times and no intermediate buffers

This paper uses the holding time model (HTM) method to derive an approximate analytic formula for the calculation of the mean throughput of a K-station production line with no buffers between any two successive stations. Service times follow the two-stage Coxian (C²) distribution at all stations. The paper provides a formula that relates the third moment of the service completion (or virtual service) time with the respective parameters of the service time, the repair time and the time to breakdown (the latter is assumed to follow the exponential distribution). In this way, it concludes that under certain conditions the two-stage Coxian distribution can be used to approximate any general distribution matching the first three moments of the service completion time distribution. The mean holding times (consisting of the service and blocking periods) of all stations of the line are obtained in an analytical form. Numerical results are provided for the mean throughput of lines with up to 20 stations. These results are shown to have a good accuracy compared against results obtained from the Markovian state method (for short lines) and results from simulation (for longer lines). © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 45: 669–685, 1998     

飞机战伤修理浅析

论述了飞机战伤修理的必要性,战饬修理与平时修理的主要区别,战斗恢复力及其设计,战伤评估等战伤修理研究中的关犍问题。根据实际数据模拟出了飞机战斗力随作战持续天数及修理天数的变化曲线图。并对美军的野战条件下战伤评估流程图作了改进,提出了适合我军野战条件下的战伤评估逻辑图。     

Antelope,Poseidon or a Hybrid: The Upgrading of the British Strategic Nuclear Deterrent, 1970–1974

It is the purpose of this article to illustrate how the British government reached its decision to upgrade the Polaris strategic nuclear deterrent in 1973. Using British and American documentation it is demonstrated that the strategic imperatives for upgrading Polaris were fundamental to the project. Existing accounts of the Polaris Improvement Project, however, have not given the appropriate attention to the wider US–UK political differences in this period. By doing so it is shown how in addition to the wider economic, strategic and political factors, this was of paramount significance in the Heath government opting for the ‘Super Antelope’ method in upgrading Polaris.1 ¹‘Super Antelope’ was the codename for the upgrade of Polaris. This was eventually changed to ‘Chevaline’. Peter Hennessy, Cabinets and the Bomb (Oxford: OUP 2007), 28–9. View all notes     

A branch‐and‐bound‐based solution approach for dynamic rerouting of airborne platforms

This article is a sequel to a recent article that appeared in this journal, “An extensible modeling framework for dynamic reassignment and rerouting in cooperative airborne operations” [ 17 ], in which an integer programming formulation to the problem of rescheduling in‐flight assets due to changes in battlespace conditions was presented. The purpose of this article is to present an improved branch‐and‐bound procedure to solve the dynamic resource management problem in a timely fashion, as in‐flight assets must be quickly re‐tasked to respond to the changing environment. To facilitate the rapid generation of attractive updated mission plans, this procedure uses a technique for reducing the solution space, supports branching on multiple decision variables simultaneously, incorporates additional valid cuts to strengthen the minimal network constraints of the original mathematical model, and includes improved objective function bounds. An extensive numerical analysis indicates that the proposed approach significantly outperforms traditional branch‐and‐bound methodologies and is capable of providing improved feasible solutions in a limited time. Although inspired by the dynamic resource management problem in particular, this approach promises to be an effective tool for solving other general types of vehicle routing problems. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2013     

基于随机网络的平均维修保障服务时间分析

利用随机网络建模方法在随机工程项目分析中的优越性,建立了不同保障方式下的维修保障过程模型。重点对网络活动中的维修等待时间和维修等待概率进行了分析,利用随机网络的解析算法,确定了维修力量的平均维修保障服务时间分析模型。最后将该方法应用于伴随修理过程,对其平均维修保障服务时间进行了案例分析。     

The hnbue and hnwue classes of life distributions

Different properties of the HNBUE (HNWUE) class of life distributions (i.e.), for which \documentclass{article}\pagestyle{empty}\begin{document}$\int_t^\infty {\,\,\,\mathop F\limits^-(x)\,dx\, \le \,(\ge)\,\mu }\]$\end{document} exp(?t/μ) for t ≥ 0, where μ = \documentclass{article}\pagestyle{empty}\begin{document}$\int_t^\infty {\,\,\,\mathop F\limits^-(x)\,dx}$\end{document} are presented. For instance we characterize the HNBUE (HNWUE) property by using the Laplace transform and present some bounds on the survival function of a HNBUE (HNWUE) life distribution. We also examine whether the HNBUE (HNWUE) property is preserved under the reliability operations (i) formation of coherent structure, (ii) convolution and (iii) mixture. The class of distributions with the discrete HNBUE (discrete HNWUE) property (i.e.), for which \documentclass{article}\pagestyle{empty}\begin{document}$\sum\limits_{j=k}^\infty {\mathop{\mathop P\limits^-_{j\,\,\,}\, \le(\ge)\,\mu(1 - 1/\mu)^{^k }}\limits^{}} $\end{document} for k = 0, 1, 2, ?, where μ =\documentclass{article}\pagestyle{empty}\begin{document}$\sum\limits_{j=0}^\infty {\mathop {\mathop P\limits^- _{j\,\,\,\,\,}and\mathop P\limits^ - _{j\,\,\,\,\,}=}\limits^{}}\,\,\sum\limits_{k=j+1}^\infty {P_k)}$\end{document} is also studied.     

Approximation for the departure process of a queue in a network

A simple renewal process is identified to approximate the complex departure process of a queue often found in queueing network models. The arrival process to the queue is the superposition or merging of several independent component-renewal processes that are approximations of departure processes from other queues and external arrival processes; there is a single server with exponential service times, and the waiting space is infinite. The departure process of this queue is of interest because it is the arrival process to other queues in the network. The approximation proposed is a hybrid; the mean and variance of the approximating departure intervals is a weighted average of those determined by basic methods in Whitt [41] with the weighting function empirically determined using simulation. Tandem queueing systems with superposition arrival processes and exponential service times are used to evaluate the approximation. The departure process of the first queue in the tandem is approximated by a renewal process, the tandem system is replaced by two independent queues, and the second queue is solved analytically. When compared to simulation estimates, the average absolute error in hybrid approximations of the expected number in the second queue is 6%, a significant improvement over 22–41% in the basic methods.     

The Political Economy of Legislation on Terrorism

^{1 1}This research was funded in part by a grant from the Lowe Institute of Political Economy. The corresponding author is S. Brock Blomerg. We thank Chris Blomberg and Brianna Loyosa for their excellent research assistance on the project. This paper presents an empirical analysis of what drives congressional legislation on terrorism during the period 1995 to 2010. We utilize and augment current methodology to compile and analyze data on sponsorship and cosponsorship of terrorism related data. Our results on the sources of legislation on terrorism are largely in line with past examinations of the importance of committee membership and leadership, party majority-ship, and other political factors. Further, we find that the most significant and robust drive for legislation on terrorism is the September 11^th attacks. And while the impact of 9/11 affected legislative productivity everywhere, we find that it most significantly affected states surrounding New York and Washington D.C. Our results indicate that the economy may be one factor motivating politicians to legislate on terrorism; however, these results are not robust.