Security Assistance in a Post-interventionist Era: The Impact on Limited Statehood in Lebanon and Tunisia

Abstract

Post-interventionist security assistance is premised on non-normative security understandings and flexible arrangements between external and local actors. In hybrid political regimes or areas of limited statehood, these forms of assistance, while strengthening specific aspects of a country’s security context, reinforce some domestic actors vis-à-vis others thanks to processes of selective borrowing by local political elites. This paper demonstrates how such processes contribute to the proliferation of hybrid elements in the country’s security sector. In two contrasting case studies, we illustrate how security assistance packages in Lebanon and Tunisia have diluted emerging democratic reforms, producing more coercive manifestation of state power.     

THE 3rd PAN-AFRICAN PARLIAMENT SESSION

Frustrated by decades of authoritarian rule, political repression, economic mismanagement, poverty, soaring unemployment and other related injustices, the youth in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya rose up against the state, while Algeria and Morocco narrowly escaped the events of the so-called ‘Arab Spring’. This quest for political reform is an indication of a great collective shift that has the potential to reverberate throughout the African continent. However, to what extent can the youth succeed in bringing about the much-desired transition to democracy? This article focuses on the North African youth uprising and the quest for political reform in Africa. It examines the core issues of the youth uprising and the challenges to the attainment of political reform. A youth uprising can lead to genuine political reform if the major challenges in building new democratic forms of governance which can address economic disparity, protection of human rights, justice and security, can be overcome.     

An assessment of the ‘democratic’ coup theory

The Egyptian military's unconstitutional removal of President Mohamed Morsi has reignited a debate regarding the theory of the ‘democratic coup’. Though coups are almost invariably condemned, many political observers and a few scholars have recently argued that coups can act as catalysts for democratisation. This paper empirically assesses the democratic coup hypothesis for Africa. Multivariate analyses from 1952 to 2012 suggest that coups statistically improve a country's democratisation prospects. Extensions of the model show that coups appear to be likely precursors for democratisation in staunchly authoritarian regimes and have become less likely to end democracy over time, and that their positive influence has strengthened since the end of the Cold War. As of 2012, countries that have experienced a recent coup are expected to be four times more likely to witness a democratic transition than those that have remained coup-free.     

‘The People are Revolting’: An Anatomy of Authoritarian Counterinsurgency

Rather than win hearts and minds, authoritarian counterinsurgency is said to rely heavily on coercion. It has a reputation for effectiveness, if also for its amorality. Still, the research into authoritarian counterinsurgency is surprisingly lacking. By distilling common features from key cases, this article concludes that this approach goes beyond the indiscriminate violence that typically captures the imagination. Like their democratic counterparts but differently, authoritarian regimes also engage in mobilisation, create narratives, and turn military advantage into political gain. The analysis explains how these tasks are undertaken and, by contradistinction, sheds light on more liberal approaches as well.     

PUBLIC ATTITUDES REGARDING UNDOCUMENTED MIGRATION AND POLICING/CRIME

The incessant bomb attacks by the Niger Delta militants and Boko Haram elements among other popular movements, against the people and government targets, have unmistakably put Nigeria on the global terrorist nations’ map. The grievances of these groups which are political, economic and religious may not be unconnected from the design and operation of the federation; this paper thus examines the constitutional provisions, and political and economic attributes, of the Nigerian federation in the Fourth Republic with a view to discovering why a mechanism put in place with the objective of achieving interethnic unity, democratic stability and socio-economic development has worked to enthrone crisis, violence and disintegrative tendencies in the country. This paper argues that the current reign of terror is a manifestation of a more serious de-linkage and inconsonance between the state and the people, with popular movements providing an alternative platform for spaces, voices and benefits from the streets and away from the state. The paper concludes that the hope for federal renewal lies in the ability of the current handlers of the Nigerian statecraft to marry decentralist constitutional reforms with an agenda for mass-based socio-economic development of the country.     

ANALYSIS OF CONFLICT WITHIN A CONTESTED LAND: THE CASE OF KASHMIR

This paper considers the case of Kashmir to examine the relation between the people of the contested land (Indian-occupied Kashmir) and one of the nation states claiming it (India, in this case) in a game-theoretic framework. The motivation for this paper was whether it was possible to rationalize the lack of democratic space in Kashmir, relative to other states in India (especially since the founding fathers of the country had announced such democratic practices to be the guiding principles of the new nation) and at the same time, a highly rigid stance of the Indian Government on the Kashmir issue. An otherwise standard political economic model is used to capture how the way in which citizens determine their allegiance to one or the other nation state (India or Pakistan) can, in turn, affect the nation state's (India's) policies towards the contested land. I conclude that if the Indian Government perceives allegiance of the citizens to be determined primarily by partisan preferences of the citizens, not so much by their preferences for policies, then the government rationally concentrates on minimizing its disutility due to deviations from its ‘most-favorite' policy. This understanding rationalizes the policies of the Indian Government towards Kashmir. More importantly, it points towards areas that need consideration for any peace-making process to take-off.     

SECURITY GOVERNANCE IN SOUTH AFRICA

In the ten years since the establishment of South Africa's first inclusive democratic government, an ambitious, extensive and systematic process of reform has been carried out in the governance of security. The process is widely regarded as having been successful and a model for other processes of ‘security sector reform’ in the context of transitions from authoritarian forms of governance to democratic ones.

That this been achieved with hardly a shot fired in anger is a remarkable achievement and a credit to visionary political leadership as well as organisational capacity, in other words to effective security governance.

At the same time, progress has been uneven and sometimes fragmentary, policy intentions and commitments have not always been translated into practice, the end results have not been to everyone's liking, and transformation has engendered its own pathologies. Thus several challenges remain in improving security governance.

This article provides a broad overview of the roles played by the various actors in the governance of the security sector, including the executive, parliament and civil society. It examines the main policy frameworks and touches on organisational transformation, because it is impossible to deal with governance in isolation from these issues. Policy processes and the frameworks they give rise to—in particular—are critical for effective governance. This article deals with the defence, safety and security and intelligence fields. A comprehensive overview would need to include the governance of criminal justice and foreign policy. The article does not seek to make an overall evaluation of governance, but to identify achievements, shortfalls and challenges.     

MOZAMBIQUE

Mozambique is widely regarded as a success story. The parliamentary and presidential lections in 1994 marked the peak of the peace process in Mozambique. Despite minor irregularities, the elections were declared free and fair by international observers. Mozambique has succeeded where other countries such as Angola has failed—a stable peace process, multiparty elections and the transformation of the armed opposition into a civil political party. Its transition to liberalism and capitalism brought macro-economic growth rates that are probably envied by many countries in the region. This article argues, however, that Mozambique provides an example of a third wave democracy where the transition from in electoral democracy to a consolidated democracy has not yet been completed, with little progress towards democratic maturity. In particular, the repercussions of the elections in 1999, Mozambique's ‘black’ November in 2000 and the process of recent consultation between the and Frelimo leadership in order to resolve the paralysed state of Mozambican politics underline a tendency towards a permanent entrenchment of democratic minimalism.     

India's counter-insurgency experience: the ‘trust and nurture’ strategy

The Indian Army, a force trained primarily for conventional warfare, has been engaged in internal counter-insurgency operations since the 1950s. Despite such a long innings on a counter-insurgency mode, little attention has been accorded within military circles to doctrinal innovation for waging sub-conventional warfare in India's democratic political context. At best, the Army continues to view counter-insurgency duty as secondary to its primary duty of defending India from external conventional threats. By conceptualizing a counter-insurgency strategy of ‘trust and nurture’, this article aims to fill this critical doctrinal gap in India's military policy. The author argues that a counter-insurgency strategy of ‘trust and nurture’ based on democratic political culture, measured military methods, special counter-insurgency forces, local social and cultural awareness and an integrative nation-building approach will result in positive handling of India's internal security problems. The author utilizes India's counter-insurgency experiences in Assam, Mizoram, Nagaland, Punjab, and Operation ‘Sadhbhavana’ in Jammu and Kashmir as illustrative empirical indicants in order to validate the ‘trust and nurture’ strategy.     

Fettered Self-determination: South Sudan’s Narrowed Path to Secession

The interpretation of self-determination as a vote for secession shaped the state that South Sudan has become since the 2011 referendum. Self-determination, this paper argues, is a democratic political process in which citizens determine their preferred form of statehood and nature of governance for their country. In South Sudan, however, political actors—with international support—established conditions that reduced such complex democratic processes to narrow technical matters. Equating self-determination with secession consolidated political and military domination in a process designed to end such domination. This was done at the expense of a more inclusive, process-oriented and political interpretation of self-determination.     

Loyalty and Defection: Misunderstanding Civil-Military Relations in Tunisia During the ‘Arab Spring’

Scholars have widely adopted the view that the behaviour of the Tunisian military during the ‘Arab Spring’ constitutes a positive case of military defection. This paper argues that, contrary to this dominant interpretation, the military remained loyal to the authoritarian civilian leadership throughout the protests as it had repeatedly done in the past. Defection occurred, however, within the Police and the National Guard, which are mistakenly portrayed as having been loyal to Ben Ali. The paper shows that scholars have sought to explain exactly the opposite of what actually happened and, thus, it questions their conclusions regarding civil-military relations in Tunisia.     

Comparative analysis of Arab Spring determinants

The Arab Spring, a pro-democracy uprising that has been sweeping through North Africa and the entire Arab world since 2010, has been described as a cataclysmic revolutionary wave that has left the overthrow of political regimes in its wake. Studies have comprehensively x-rayed the political and socio-economic circumstances that gave rise to the uprising. Apart from the impact of the uprising on political developments and democratic governance in the Arab world in particular and the world in general, the circumstances that resulted in the revolutions constitute empirical security implications for Nigeria. This is the focus of this article. Using the Ibrahim Index of African Governance (IIAG) and other selected indicators, this article draws a comparative analysis of the key factors that led to the uprisings in Egypt, Libya and Tunisia, pointing out areas of social and security tensions in Nigeria. Based on these findings, it points out the urgency of and imperative for security sector reforms in Nigeria.     

Competitive Statehood in Libya: Governing Differently a Specific Setting or Deconstructing its Weak Sovereign State with a Fateful Drift Toward Chaos?

Abstract

Libya in 2011 witnessed a real process of political change, though different from all the policy-oriented jargon equating transition with a teleological transition to democracy. Due to the resilience of the Qadhafi regime in power and with the essential role of NATO intervention, the process was eased out by a eight-month civil war. Governance in post-Qadhafi Libya was not done through the rebuilding of centralized authorities. But it took the specific form of the emergence of multiple non-state actors embedded in local dynamics and then connected with weakened central authorities that had access to the huge Libyan resources. That raised complex questions about the quality of this mode of governance, especially at a time of pressing problems for Libya and its neighbors, whether direct ones (Tunisia, Egypt, Mali) or farther countries across the Mediterranean sea: terrorism with the expansion of Da’esh into the country and flows of refugees crossing Libya’s uncontrolled borders and flowing into Italy and then Europe by thousands.     

THE PRISONERS OF HOPE: CIVIL SOCIETY AND THE OPPOSITION IN ZIMBABWE

There are many debates as to what constitutes the essence of our African humanity and, indeed, Zimbabwean-ness. The country has had a difficult but illustrious history characterised by turmoil and tenacity, chaos and courage, corruption and compassion. Zambia's Kenneth Kaunda once described forgiveness as “a constant willingness to live in a new day”. In this article I intend to demonstrate why there has not been any revolt in Zimbabwe, despite unparalleled repression. Perhaps it is the ingrained capacity of Zimbabweans to constantly hope for a new day that has made us prisoners of hope. I wish to focus my comments on the effect the ZANU-PF's authoritarian regime has had on political opposition in Zimbabwe, on the architecture of civil society, and in particular on the role of civil society organisations. A particular area of concern is the threat to their functioning posed by the new NGO Bill.     

The effects of local elections on national military spending: A cross-country study

In this paper, we study the domestic political determinants of military spending. Our conceptual framework suggests that power distribution over local and central governments influences the government provision of national public goods, in our context, military expenditure. Drawing on a large cross-country panel, we demonstrate that having local elections will decrease a country’s military expenditure markedly, controlling for other political and economic variables. According to our preferred estimates, a country’s military expenditure is on average 20% lower if its state government officials are locally elected, which is consistent with our theoretical prediction.     

MULTIPARTY DEMOCRACY IN TANZANIA

This article attempts to understand the manner in which the notion of good governance has been applied in the United Republic of Tanzania. In 1989, the World Bank issued a document which argued that Africa's development problems were in essence a crisis of governance. This became the basis for the imposition of conditionalities in order to establish liberal democratic governments. More than a decade later, good governance still dominates the donor agenda, which is reminiscent of the heyday of colonialism and the civilising mission that thrust Africa into the orbit of the European world, albeit as a ‘dark continent’. Although Tanzania has escaped the more overt political turmoil that plagued neighbouring countries, the country appears to be open to inter-ethnic rivalry due largely to Zanzibar, the site of the greatest opposition to the ruling party, in power since independence. The challenge is to deal with the dysfunctional economy and to meet the growing demands of its population for adequate social services. The ideal of self-reliance espoused by Nyerere is no longer a choice but a necessity.     

Transforming the Spanish military

The article analyses the Spanish military transformation. This process started in 2004 as a means to adapt the force structure, organization and capabilities of the Spanish military to meet present and future threats in compliance with NATO’s initiatives, thus ensuring the continuity of the equipment modernization, professionalization and the adjustment of the country’s defence architecture to the post-cold war environment. A decade later, although transformation is still a priority for the Ministry of Defence, limited political will, a lack of strategic guidance, poor resource management and the effects of the economic crisis are compromising its development. This article describes the Spanish military transformation and assesses its value in adapting the country’s armed forces to the current and prospective security environment.     

South Africa and Peace Support Operations: Limitations,Options and Challenges

Abstract

Malawi's political transition from single-party rule to multiparty democracy in June 1994 raised expectations for sustainable peace in the country by, among others, passing a new legal framework that provided for conflict resolution mechanisms and good governance. However, political conflicts that have posed challenges to the foundations of peace and political stability have been a characteristic of the multiparty dispensation, leading to interventions by indigenous institutions whose aim is to build peace. This paper, which is based on field research, analyses the major political conflicts that have occurred on Malawi's political scene since the 1990s. Using the Public Affairs Committee as a case study, the paper illustrates the challenges facing the indigenous conflict resolution mechanisms. It also shows that despite the political transition, the socio-political environment still exhibits political behaviour and norms formed during the 30 years of single-party rule. There is a need for capacity-building and deliberate policy to enhance the indigenous-based mechanisms in order to promote sustainable peace in the country.     

Bangladesh: The Changing Dynamics of Violent Extremism and the Response of the State

Bangladesh is currently facing an incremental growth of radicalization. This radicalization can be traced back to the country’s early post-Independence years. Over time, political violence, ideological clashes between secular and right-wing ideologies, and weak governance have created conditions for the growth of radical Islam. The public rhetoric on corruption, weakening of democratic institutions, inadequate law enforcement agencies, fragile justice delivery system, fledgling educational and social institutions and growing unemployment provides further space for alternative narratives by extremist ideologues. Home-grown extremist outfits have received ideological and tactical supports from transnational terrorist network such as Islamic State (IS) and Al-Qaeda in Indian Subcontinent (AQIS), but only in a limited manner. The supply and demand side of radicalization in Bangladesh has not yet been addressed by actors such as the government, private sector, civil society and media. The failures in multiple sectors in the state governance have led to a situation where IS and AQIS now see Bangladesh as a potential ground for exerting their supremacy as flag bearers of radical forms of Islam.     

Effective? Locally owned? Beyond the technocratic perspective on the European Union Police Mission for the Palestinian Territories

ABSTRACT

The European Union Police Mission for the Palestinian Territories (EUPOL COPPS) was established in 2006 to contribute to the establishment of effective policing in support of an independent and democratic Palestinian state. EUPOL COPPS is often commended for its contribution to the professionalization of the Palestinian security sector under local ownership. Drawing on 40 interviews, we argue that the mission can be considered effective and locally owned only from a narrow technocratic perspective, which denies the political reality of continued occupation and absence of democracy. A broader analysis, which includes the voices of ordinary Palestinians, reveals that EUPOL COPPS contributed to the professionalization of authoritarian policing under continued Israeli occupation. Our findings show the limits of technocratic approaches to peacebuilding interventions and call for a stronger engagement with the ultimate beneficiaries of peacebuilding missions.