Probabilistic models of decreasing failure rate processes

The “infant mortality” effect observed in the statistical treatment of reliability consists of a decreasing with age of the conditional probability of equipment failure (failure rate). One widely applicable explanatory hypothesis is that of population heterogeneity. This is developed here as a basis for several specific models of decreasing failure rate processes. Since, in the case of repairable devices, decreasing failure rate is often observed after the occurrence of failure and repair, consideration is extended to include repair in an explicit way. This union of failure and repair models is a fruitful one in view of the interaction between the two processes and gives a complete picture of the life of the device in terms of a stochastic process, usually with non-independent interfailure times. Four models, of particular significance due to their plausibility, mathematical tractability, and frugality of parameterization, are presented.     

Warranty costs: An age‐dependent failure/repair model

An age‐dependent repair model is proposed. The notion of the “calendar age” of the product and the degree of repair are used to define the virtual age of the product. The virtual failure rate function and the virtual hazard function related to the lifetime of the product are discussed. Under a nonhomogeneous Poisson process scenario the expected warranty costs for repairable products associated with linear pro‐rata, nonrenewing free replacement and renewing free replacement warranties are evaluated. Illustration of the results is given by numerical and graphical examples. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004.     

Asymptotic distribution of some multivariate “success run” renewal processes,applied to a 2-i.i.d. unit repairable system

If the probability of “failure” in a multivariate renewal process of the “success run” type is very small, then if certain conditions are imposed on the components of the renewals, the joint distribution of their total durations is approximately exponential with all mass along one line. This result is applied to a 2-i.i.d. unit repairable system of the “1 out of 2:G, Cold Standby” type.     

A nonparametric Bayes approach to decide system burn-in time

Burn-in is the preconditioning of assemblies and the accelerated power-on tests performed on equipment subject to temperature, vibration, voltage, radiation, load, corrosion, and humidity. Burn-in techniques are widely applied to integrated circuits (IC) to enhance the component and system reliability. However, reliability prediction by burn-in at the component level, such as the one using the military (e.g., MIL-STD-280A, 756B, 217E [23–25]) and the industrial standards (e.g., the JEDEC standards), is usually not consistent with the field observations. Here, we propose system burn-in, which can remove many of the residual defects left from component and subsystem burn-in (Chien and Kuo [6]). A nonparametric model is considered because 1) the system configuration is usually very complicated, 2) the components in the system have different failure mechanisms, and 3) there is no good model for modeling incompatibility among components and subsystems (Chien and Kuo [5]; Kuo [16]). Since the cost of testing a system is high and, thus, only small samples are available, a Bayesian nonparametric approach is proposed to determine the system burn-in time. A case study using the proposed approach on MCM ASIC's shows that our model can be applied in the cases where 1) the tests and the samples are expensive, and 2) the records of previous generation of the products can provide information on the failure rate of the system under investigation. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 44: 655–671, 1997     

An acceptance life test for high-reliability products

This article introduces a replacement life-test procedure for the exponential failure rate: Failure-free operation of a unit for at least t_k consecutive time units is designated a “success”; the acceptance test is passed if and only if the first success is encountered before k unit failures have been recorded. Test plans are presented and the test is compared with the usual time-truncated test and to the truncated sequential probability ratio test. It is shown that this new test has smaller expected test time than the time truncated test when the true failure rate is small relative to the null hypothesized failure rate. Consistency and unbiasedness are proved and methods for making inferences on failure rate are described.     

Bolstering components for maximizing system lifetime

This article considers the problem of which component should be “bolstered” or “improved” in order to stochastically maximize the lifetime of a parallel system, series system, or in general, k-out-of-n system. Various ways of bolstering including active redundance, standby redundancy, and burn-in are studied. Also the method of reducing working temperature or stress level according to Arrhenius models is investigated. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 45: 497–509, 1998     

A general model for accelerated life testing with time‐dependent covariates

This paper introduces a general or “distribution‐free” model to analyze the lifetime of components under accelerated life testing. Unlike the accelerated failure time (AFT) models, the proposed model shares the advantage of being “distribution‐free” with the proportional hazard (PH) model and overcomes the deficiency of the PH model not allowing survival curves corresponding to different values of a covariate to cross. In this research, we extend and modify the extended hazard regression (EHR) model using the partial likelihood function to analyze failure data with time‐dependent covariates. The new model can be easily adopted to create an accelerated life testing model with different types of stress loading. For example, stress loading in accelerated life testing can be a step function, cyclic, or linear function with time. These types of stress loadings reduce the testing time and increase the number of failures of components under test. The proposed EHR model with time‐dependent covariates which incorporates multiple stress loadings requires further verification. Therefore, we conduct an accelerated life test in the laboratory by subjecting components to time‐dependent stresses, and we compare the reliability estimation based on the developed model with that obtained from experimental results. The combination of the theoretical development of the accelerated life testing model verified by laboratory experiments offers a unique perspective to reliability model building and verification. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 46: 303–321, 1999     

Testing goodness of fit to the increasing failure rate family with censored data

One important thrust in the reliability literature is the development of statistical procedures under various “restricted family” model assumptions such as the increasing failure rate (IFR) and decreasing failure rate (DFR) distributions. However, relatively little work has been done on the problem of testing fit to such families as a null hypothesis. Barlow and Campo proposed graphical methods for assessing goodness of fit to the IFR model in single-sample problems. For the same problem with complete data, Tenga and Santner studied several analytic tests of the null hypothesis that the common underlying distribution is IFR versus the alternative that it is not IFR for complete data. This article considers the same problem for the case of four types of censored data: (i) Type I (time) censoring, (ii) Type I1 (order statistic) censoring, (iii) a hybrid of Type I and Type I1 censoring, and (iv) random censorship. The least favorable distributions of several intuitive test statistics are derived for each of the four types of censoring so that valid small-sample-size α tests can be constructed from them. Properties of these tests are investigated.     

Reliability growth of repairable systems

This paper considers the problem of modeling the reliability of a repairable system or device that is experiencing reliability improvement. Such a situation arises when system failure modes are gradually being corrected by a test-fix-test-fix procedure, which may include design changes. A dynamic reliability model for this process is discussed and statistical techniques are derived for estimating the model parameters and for testing the goodness-of-fit to observed data. The reliability model analyzed was first proposed as a graphical technique known as Duane plots, but can also be viewed as a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with a particular mean value function.     

Human conflict and universal ethics (part 2)

This second part of the review article begins with a definition of military power, when and how it should be used. From a large number of authors, “moral forces” are linked to “codes of conduct”, and the fundamental understandings about the “profession of arms”, based on “fiduciary trust”, “covenanted” service and professional and personal “conscience”. The article covers what authors have written about “culture” and the ethics of “technology” devices and systems, including “cyber” warfare. It concludes with recognition of the increase in ethical sensitivity in this century which is characterized by a phenomenon, the crises of “identity”, personal, national and global.     

Bounding the optimal burn‐in time for a system with two types of failure

Burn‐in is a widely used method to improve the quality of products or systems after they have been produced. In this paper, we consider the problem of determining bounds to the optimal burn‐in time and optimal replacement policy maximizing the steady state availability of a repairable system. It is assumed that two types of system failures may occur: One is Type I failure (minor failure), which can be removed by a minimal repair, and the other is Type II failure (catastrophic failure), which can be removed only by a complete repair. Assuming that the underlying lifetime distribution of the system has a bathtub‐shaped failure rate function, upper and lower bounds for the optimal burn‐in time are provided. Furthermore, some other applications of optimal burn‐in are also considered. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004     

A sequential bayes procedure for reliability demonstration

A common problem in life testing is to demonstrate that the mean time to failure, θ, exceeds some minimum acceptable value, say θ₁, with a given confidence coefficient γ. When this is true, it is said that “θ₁ has been demonstrated with a confidence γ”. In this paper a Sequential Bayes Procedure (SBP) for demonstrating (by means of. a probability statement) that θ exceeds θ₁ is presented. The SBP differs from the classical procedure in the sense that a prior distribution is assumed on the parameter θ, calling for a Bayesian approach. The procedure is based on the sequence of statistics.     

A dynamic nonlinear constrained optimal replacement model

A stochastically constrained optimal replacement model for capital equipment is constructed. Each piece of capital equipment, or machine, is characterized by its age and “utility” or “readiness” class. The readiness of a machine at any age is a stochastic function of its initial utility class and its age. The total discounted replacement cost of several replacement streams, each commencing with an initial machine, is minimized with respect to the replacement age and initial utility class of each machine, subject to a readiness constraint stating the lower bound on the expected number of machines in each utility class at any time. A general solution procedure is outlined and a specific case is solved in detail.     

The danger of “hybrid warfare” from a sophisticated adversary: the Russian “hybridity” in the Ukrainian conflict

The term “hybrid warfare” is a new one that the West began to use to explain its failure to cope with asymmetric threats. Focusing on the war on global terrorism, the West temporarily withdrew its attention from traditional adversaries, such as Russia, which has used this gap and has audaciously returned to the stage as a global actor. Until the Russian annexation of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014 and inflaming the Ukrainian crisis, most Western authors attributed “hybrid threats” mostly to non-state actors. But the Ukrainian scenario showed the true face of “hybridity” in the modern battlefield when practised by a powerful state actor. Russian “hybrid warfare” in Ukraine has already been seen as a combination of conventional and unconventional methods, that have been complemented with other instruments of national power – diplomatic, economic and information. The purpose of this article is, through an analysis of the Ukrainian scenario, to demonstrate that although the term “hybrid” is new, the concept itself is old and is a continuation of already seen doctrine from the Cold War era. Although “hybrid threats” can come both from state and non-state actors, the Russian interference in Ukraine is proof that they are especially dangerous for the West if, or when, they are initiated from a traditional, sophisticated adversary that has the capacity to use all forms of warfare.     

机电计算装置中运算放大器板离线自动检测方案研究

基于运算放大器能实现信号的加减运算这一基本原理,应用单片机控制检测技术,研究运放工作性能离线自动检测方案.利用本方案实现的检测仪器可以提高装备的维修效率.     

某型飞机平尾轴疲劳断裂失效分析

采用台架试验装置对某型飞机平尾轴进行了疲劳试验,通过断口的观察分析、断口部位的金相分析、硬度检测、有限元结构应力分析,确定了平尾轴的失效模式,并对其断裂失效原因进行了分析。结果表明：平尾轴的断裂性质为疲劳断裂,裂纹源均起源于大轴简体内壁加工刀痕形成的沟槽处,变截面圆弧造成的结构应力集中和粗糙加工刀痕形成的附加应力集中是造成大轴疲劳断裂的主要原因。关键词：平尾轴;疲劳断裂;失效分析;应力集中     

Scheduling economic lot sizes in deteriorating production systems

The paper considers the economic lot scheduling problem (ELSP) where production facility is assumed to deteriorate, owing to aging, with an increasing failure rate. The time to shift from an “in‐control” state to an “out‐of‐control” state is assumed to be normally distributed. The system is scheduled to be inspected at the end of each production lot. If the process is found to be in an “out‐of‐control” state, then corrective maintenance is performed to restore it to an “in‐control” state before the start of the next production run. Otherwise, preventive maintenance is carried out to enhance system reliability. The ELSP is formulated under the capacity constraint taking into account the quality related cost due to possible production of non‐conforming items, process inspection, and maintenance costs. In order to find a feasible production schedule, both the common cycle and time‐varying lot sizes approaches are utilized. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 50: 650–661, 2003     

ESD与方波脉冲对集成电路注入损伤的比较研究

采用方波脉冲和ESD脉冲对3种集成电路进行了注入损伤效应实验,目的是比较二者对器件损伤的异同之处。分析时,首先对实验数据作拟合分析,建立起相关的数学模型,然后将模型值和实际值进行比较。可得到结论:实验器件有高压强场致PN结击穿和热效应2种损伤模式。对同一种器件,2种注入方式下的损伤模式相同或类似。方波注入下,各损伤阈值参数可拟合为1个式子来描述它们之间的关系,ESD注入下则还不确定;对同一器件,不同注入方式下的阈值不同,目前结果表明相差2~3倍。     

Bayesian enhanced decision making for deteriorating repairable systems with preventive maintenance

Since a system and its components usually deteriorate with age, preventive maintenance (PM) is often performed to restore or keep the function of a system in a good state. Furthermore, PM is capable of improving the health condition of the system and thus prolongs its effective age. There has been a vast amount of research to find optimal PM policies for deteriorating repairable systems. However, such decisions involve numerous uncertainties and the analyses are typically difficult to perform because of the scarcity of data. It is therefore important to make use of all information in an efficient way. In this article, a Bayesian decision model is developed to determine the optimal number of PM actions for systems which are maintained according to a periodic PM policy. A non‐homogeneous Poisson process with a power law failure intensity is used to describe the deteriorating behavior of the repairable system. It is assumed that the status of the system after a PM is somewhere between as good as new for a perfect repair and as good as old for a minimal repair, and for failures between two preventive maintenances, the system undergoes minimal repairs. Finally, a numerical example is given and the results of the proposed approach are discussed after performing sensitivity analysis. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

基于WindowsCE的嵌入式漏磁检测仪ADC驱动程序设计

描述了基于WindowsCE的嵌入式漏磁检测仪总体结构设计,介绍了WindowsCE下设备驱动程序模型,并结合$3C2440A处理器的ADC驱动程序设计,详细阐述了基于Windows的流接口驱动程序的设计方法。实验结果表明：利用该方法设计的ADC驱动程序高效可靠,可以为开发类似设备驱动程序提供参考。