潜艇应用的C3I系统作战效能分析

为了定量分析C3I系统对潜艇作战的影响,运用了层次分析法(AHP)和模糊综合评判法对C3I系统在潜艇上应用的作战效能进行分析,结果表明,C3I系统能极大提高潜艇的作战能力,但在C3I系统的发挥重要作用的同时,指挥员的决策能力的高低是影响潜艇战斗力的关键因素。     

Petri网潜艇作战指挥效能分析

作战指挥效能系统是一个实时系统,是一个具有分布、并发、异步等特性的复杂系统.为了分析、评价和开发此类系统,依据潜艇作战指挥系统的战技指标要求,运用模糊Petri网的原理结合层次分析法,对其性能采取定性分析与定量分析相结合,以定量分析为主的方法进行评价.结果表明,这个评价模型简便可行,在军事系统效能评价中具有推广应用价值.     

潜艇作战指数计算研究

潜艇的作战指数是反映其综合作战能力的效能指标,由于传统的作战指数计算方法在实际应用中操作难度较大且横向可比性不高,提出了一种由已知的潜艇作战指数推算待求的潜艇作战指数的较为简便的新方法,即采用层次分析法确立潜艇作战能力的因素集和权重集,运用拓展的灰色关联法求得所选潜艇的灰色关联度,利用已知的作战指数和所求的关联度通过数值分析建立两者的函数关系,并由此推算出待求的作战指数.以攻击型潜艇对水面舰艇作战指数为例,求取潜艇作战指数.     

无人机保障条件下的炮兵C4ISR系统作战效能评估

针对无人机保障条件下的炮兵指挥自动化(C4ISR)系统的作战运用特点,运用模糊理论探索其作战效能评估的有效方法.综合运用模糊综合评判和层次分析法(AHP)两种决策方法对无人机保障条件下的炮兵C4ISR系统的作战效能进行了评估,评估结果表明,无人机保障条件下的炮兵C4ISR系统的作战效能水平为正常.通过对影响炮兵C4ISR系统作战效能发挥的各个因素进行定量分析比较,认为当用无人机来保障炮兵C4ISR系统时,应当把确保系统的稳定性和提高无人机与炮兵C4ISR系统之间的通信控制能力作为重要环节来抓.     

车载反坦克导弹火力分配优化模型

在车载反坦克导弹指挥控制系统软件设计过程中,火力分配模型在车载反坦克导弹射击中具有极其重要的地位作用,而传统反坦克导弹射击主要是根据攻击区进行划分,并未涉及火力分配问题,这将直接影响车载反坦克导弹作战效能的发挥.而AHP层次分析法是解决火力分配问题的有效模型,根据车载反坦克导弹的作战运用特点,并结合AHP层次分析法理论,建立了反坦克导弹火力分配的优化模型.通过对模型的求解,证明该算法对于某型车载反坦克导弹作战单元火力分配问题切实有效.     

基于AHP和模糊评价法的舰艇编队编成优化方法

海军舰艇通常以编队的形式执行各种作战任务.由于武器装备科技含量的不断提高,使得海战对抗强度日益激烈.舰艇编队作为海战的战斗单元,其作战效能的高低直接影响着海战的胜负,不同的作战任务决定了不同的编队编成.以封锁任务为作战背景,运用层次分析法(AHP)确定舰艇编队作战效能评价体系中各指标的权重,使用模糊综合评价方法对各模糊指标进行评价,评价结果表明该方法能够比较科学合理地对舰艇作战编队的编成进行优化,从而为海军舰艇作战编队编成的科学性和合理性提供了一种论证方法.     

消防部队基层指挥员作战指挥能力评估研究

通过建立消防部队基层指挥员作战指挥能力评估模型,采用模糊综合评判和层次分析法(AHP),对基层指挥员作战指挥能力给出了较为精确的计量,可以了解掌握基层指挥员自身实力和存在不足,也为上级用人提供依据.     

基于AHP和灰色评估法的水面舰艇编队作战效能评估

水面舰艇编队的作战效能是衡量水面舰艇编队完成各种战斗任务能力的基本依据。为定量评估水面舰艇编队的作战效能,建立了评估水面舰艇编队作战效能的指标体系,并对其中较为重要的指标进行了分析。首先采用层次分析法确定各因素的权重,然后运用灰色评估法对水面舰艇编队作战效能进行综合评价,主要用于对水面舰艇编队作战效能进行排序以及对水面舰艇编队进行编成优化,为水面舰艇编队指挥人员提供一定的量化分析和决策依据。     

基于AHP-FCE法的指挥控制能力系统效能评估

运用层次分析法和模糊综合评判法,结合指挥控制系统实战情况,通过对影响其作战效能不确定因素的分析和处理,建立综合量化评估模型。建立了科学的作战效能评价指标体系,将指标的定量测量和定性分析相结合,提出层次分析模糊评判法。先以改进型层次分析法确定权重系数,再通过确定决断集及评判矩阵对模型进行综合模糊评判。结果表明该方法能够很好地解决指控能力评估中存在的不确定性问题。     

ANP的指挥控制系统作战效能评估

通过分析指挥控制系统的结构,提出了影响其作战效能的指标集.针对系统的特点选定了基于网络层次分析法(ANP)的评估方法,确立了评价准则.建立了ANP控制层和网络层模型,并且利用计算极限超矩阵的方法对单个准则下各方案的作战效能进行排序.最后通过对单个准则下的排序向量进行加权求和获得指挥控制系统作战效能的排序向量.     

Putin – the masked nemesis of the strategy of ambiguity

Recent events demonstrate the complex and adaptive approach employed by Russia to reassert influence in Europe. The changing face of Russia’s strategy commenced in 2007 when it launched a crippling cyber-attack against Estonia. This was followed by a large Russian conventional attack against Georgia in 2008, occupying two large areas of the nation. 2014 witnessed the Russian annexation of Crimea where in just a week, Russia seized control of Crimea “without firing a shot.” The annexation of Crimea was rapidly followed by a Russian inspired and led subversive war in eastern Ukraine. The common thread among these diverse Russian operations is its use of ambiguity to confound and confuse decision makers in the West.     

India's counter-insurgency experience: the ‘trust and nurture’ strategy

The Indian Army, a force trained primarily for conventional warfare, has been engaged in internal counter-insurgency operations since the 1950s. Despite such a long innings on a counter-insurgency mode, little attention has been accorded within military circles to doctrinal innovation for waging sub-conventional warfare in India's democratic political context. At best, the Army continues to view counter-insurgency duty as secondary to its primary duty of defending India from external conventional threats. By conceptualizing a counter-insurgency strategy of ‘trust and nurture’, this article aims to fill this critical doctrinal gap in India's military policy. The author argues that a counter-insurgency strategy of ‘trust and nurture’ based on democratic political culture, measured military methods, special counter-insurgency forces, local social and cultural awareness and an integrative nation-building approach will result in positive handling of India's internal security problems. The author utilizes India's counter-insurgency experiences in Assam, Mizoram, Nagaland, Punjab, and Operation ‘Sadhbhavana’ in Jammu and Kashmir as illustrative empirical indicants in order to validate the ‘trust and nurture’ strategy.     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.     

Reviews

Douglas S. Derrer, We Are All the Target: A Handbook of Terrorism Avoidance and Hostage Survival. Annapolis, MD: US Naval Institute Press, 1992. Pp. x+135, notes, index. $14.95. ISBN 01–55750–150–5

Ian Knight, Zulu: Isandlwana and Rorke's Drift, 22–23 January 1879. London: Windrow & Greene, 1992. Pp.136, 150 illus., incl 8 colour plates, maps, biblio. £35. ISBN 1–872004–23–7

Ian Knight, By the Orders of the Great White Queen: Campaigning in Zululand through the Eyes of the British Soldiers, 1879. London: Greenhill Books and Novato: Presidio Press, 1992. Pp. 272, 17 illus., 1 map. £18.95. ISBN 1–85367–122–3

Manfried Rauchensteiner and Erwin A. Schmidl (eds.), Formen des Krieges: vom Mittelalter zum ‘Low‐intensity’ Conflict’. Graz : Verlag Styria, 1991. Pp.208. DM35. ISBN 3–22–12139–7

Harold J. Kearsley, Maritime Power and the Twenty‐First Century. Dartmouth: Dartmouth Publishing Company, Limited, 1992. Pp.xv + 203, 13 diagrams, index. £32.50. ISBN 1–85521–288–9     

Helping hands: external support for the KNU insurgency in Burma

This article analyses to what extent the Burmese KNU insurgency made use of external support from states, refugees, and diasporas. Based on extensive fieldwork it is concluded that support from neighbouring states and refugees has for years kept the Karen rebellion alive. Western countries perceived forms of resistance to the illegitimate Burmese regime as just and have therefore played a crucial role in the continuation of conflict in Karen State. It is important that policymakers and donors as well as executing organizations continue to reflect critically on the way they exercise their work.     

基于GTST-DMLD-ESD的装备RMS建模仿真

装备的RMS是装备的重要设计参数,是影响战备完好和保障能力的关键因素.引入GTST-DMLD作为主要建模工具,建立起装备系统的RMS描述模型,以ESD为补充和扩展,对维修过程进行建模.并以GTST-DMLD-ESD模型作为装备RMS仿真的核心,对装备RMS仿真模型的总体框架进行了研究,并对各模块进行了较为详细的探讨.