基于系统动力学的导弹综合防护体系仿真

在未来高技术战争中,弹道导弹武器的作用越来越大,它已成为各国战略威胁手段和对敌实施纵深打击的主要力量之一,也是敌攻击的首选目标,因此对导弹阵地综合防护体系的研究就显得十分重要.在给出导弹阵地综合防护体系的框架后,建立了基于系统动力学的综合防护体系模型,在不同仿真条件下对模型进行仿真并分析了仿真结果,得出了对综合防护体系效能影响大的因素.     

Proliferation and critical risk

Does proliferation increase the risk of war between new nuclear powers? Two schools of thought ‐ proliferation pessimists and optimists ‐ offer very different answers. The former stress the first‐strike danger of nuclear‐armed ballistic missiles and the resulting crisis instability as a cause of preemptive war. The latter stress the caution‐inducing effects of nuclear warheads and fear of retaliation as a check on would‐be attackers.

To bridge the gap between these two schools, Daniel Ellsberg's concept of critical risk is used to show how the likelihood of war changes as new nuclear powers enlarge and improve their missile forces. Ellsberg's framework suggests that the danger of war is low between recent proliferators but rises as nuclear stockpiles grow, thereby changing the payoffs associated with striking first or striking second and increasing the danger of war due to accidents, miscalculations, and uncontrollable interactions between rival nuclear forces.

Ellsberg's framework also suggests that the transition from weaponization to secure second strike force is likely to be long and difficult, in part because short‐range missiles like India's Prithvi are better suited to strike first than to strike second, and in part because negative control procedures reduce the value of striking second, thereby increasing the attraction of a preemptive strike.     

现代防空体系对防空导弹的需求分析

由于现代空袭体系通常是在预警机指挥下 ,实施防区外攻击 ,所以防空体系必须具有远程打击预警机、中程拦截空袭武器载机和末端防御空袭武器的能力。因此 ,现代防空体系需要三种类型的防空导弹 ,这就是远程防空导弹、中程防空导弹和末端防御用近程防空导弹。     

Layered defense of deceptively based ICBMs

The basing of ICBMs is a fundamental problem of defense analysis. Deceptive basing and antiballistic missile defense are two of the methods available to attempt to insure that there are ICBMs surviving after undergoing an attack. This article treats tradeoffs among missiles, silos or shelters, exoatmospheric interceptors, and endoatmospheric interceptors. Most of the analysis deals with 200 missiles, the number of MX missiles which were recommended to be moved among the 4600 shelters of the Multiple Protective Shelter (MPS) deployment, though some variants in the number of missiles (from 115 to 400) are also treated here. The basic reference point of the analysis is the provision of 1000 ICBM warheads delivered in a second strike. The combination of exoatmospheric interceptors and endoatmospheric interceptors is referred to as “layered defense.” Warheads are destroyed by interceptors after the warheads separate from the missile which carries them. Exoatmospheric interceptors are assumed to achieve a non-nuclear kill, while endoatmospheric interceptors are assumed to achieve either a non-nuclear or nuclear kill, depending on the technology available to both sides. Exoatmospheric interceptors may be capable of protecting value targets against the warheads of a second strike. To the extent that this can be achieved, they facilitate a first strike with relative impunity and hence are destabilizing. This article explores various layered defense topics.     

South Asia's Missile Expansion

ABSTRACT

Over the past decade, contrary to declarations that they are pursuing “minimum” deterrence, India and Pakistan have considerably expanded their missile forces. India has developed eleven types of missiles while Pakistan has fielded nine. These missile forces have a mixed impact on deterrence stability. Both states' medium-range missiles strengthen their countervalue deterrent capabilities against the other, though India's China-specific missiles still have limitations. India's and Pakistan's short-range missiles and first-generation naval systems raise concerns about nuclear ambiguity, command and control, and escalation across the nuclear threshold, ultimately undermining deterrence stability on the subcontinent.     

Warfare by other means: special forces,terrorism and grand strategy

This contribution looks at the role of Special Forces in anti-terrorist operations with particular emphasis on the British Special Air Service. It argues that Special Forces have played a pivotal role in such operations since the era of Palestinian terrorism in the early 1970s. The essay looks at the operations in Afghanistan leading to the overthrow of the Taliban in 2001 and shows that the seven Special Forces involved there proved crucial to the success of the limited ground forces. In particular they served a valuable force multiplier by acting as a nexus between the regional warlords and the use of air power as well as mobile strike units against fortified Al Qaeda and Taliban positions. In the latter instance their success was mixed, involving attacks on difficult cave hideouts, though overall it can be concluded that Special Forces have demonstrated their capacity in fighting unconventional warfare against mobile and transnational terrorist groupings.     

面对称旋转导弹刚体弹道模型

为了计算面对称旋转导弹的刚体弹道,根据面对称旋转导弹的特点,建立了其刚体弹道模型,定义了模型中的坐标系并给出了各个坐标系之间的转换关系,在此基础上得出了角度的计算公式,分析了风对旋转导弹运动的影响,在弹体坐标系下计算了气动力和气动力矩,解决了面对称旋转导弹弹道精确计算问题。     

Pakistan's Evolving Nuclear Weapon Posture

This essay provides an overview of the ongoing quantitative and qualitative changes in Pakistan's nuclear arsenal and their impact on deterrence stability vis-à-vis India. Prominent among these trends is a major expansion in fissile material production that enables the manufacture of lighter and more compact warheads optimized for battlefield missions; the development of cruise missiles and shorter-range ballistic missiles possessing dual-use capabilities; and a greater emphasis in doctrinal pronouncements on the need for strike options geared to all levels of conflict. Although these trends pose problematic ramifications for the risks of unauthorized and inadvertent escalation, deterrence stability in South Asia is not as precarious as many observers fear. The challenges of fashioning a robust nuclear peace between India and Pakistan cannot be lightly dismissed, however, and policy makers would do well to undertake some reinforcing measures.     

时敏打击指挥控制技术初探

分析了时敏目标打击链,介绍了压缩打击链的主要途径,描述了图像处理、战场数据管理、武器动态分配、智能代理集成等有关时敏打击指挥控制技术,为时敏打击指挥控制系统的研究提供参考。     

空地导弹对机动导弹武器系统毁伤能力评估

在攻防对抗仿真中,空地导弹对地面机动导弹武器系统的毁伤评估,是一个很复杂的问题。提出了计算机模拟目标真实几何图形,通过对目标的易损性分析和破片式战斗部导弹破坏威力的研究,探讨出一种空地导弹毁伤目标的评估方法。     

【专题】智能化导弹质量检测方法研究

导弹是由各种类型装备组成的综合性很强的复杂系统,智能技术的引入进一步丰富了智能导弹质量特性的内涵,对质量检测和控制提出了更高要求,需要开发与之相适应的检测方法。本文先给出了智能导弹的定义和内涵,分析了其智能特性,接着概述了智能化导弹的结构组成,分析了各智能部件的功能和结构组成,从智能化导弹结构组成及测试参数、智能化部件的嵌入式软件作用、零部件机械加工精度等方面提出了智能化导弹质量检测的需求,并在此基础上结合智能化制造等技术提出了在线检测、自动检测/测试、BIT自检、软件测评技术以及弹载遥测的智能化导弹质量检测途径和方法。     

竞争性假设分析法在群体性事件情报预警中的应用

目前，边防部门对于群体性事件预警情报的分析缺乏科学系统的工作流程和分析思路，受思维定势、先入为主等主观因素的影响较为严重。随着科学技术的不断发展，群体性事件预警情报的来源不断扩展，数量不断攀升，如何进行准确的情报分析，成为边防部门面临的一个亟待解决的问题。分析了竞争性假设分析法在群体性事件情报预警中的可行性和实际应用，对预警情报的分析工作有一定的借鉴价值。     

防空导弹行进间发射技术初探

行进间发射技术是防空导弹技术的重要发展趋势之一,它能为机械化部队提供不间断的伴随防空,大幅增强武器系统的快速反应能力,提高了系统的生存能力,在综述各国行进间发射防空导弹型号基础上,对该技术的使用意义、装备特点和关键技术进行了总结。     

地理信息系统和军事测绘

阐明了的内涵.地理空间情报已成为美军作战指挥控制系统的运作基础.高精度的地理空间数据成为美军实现精确打击的重要保证.军事测绘保障为战场指挥、武器使用以及作战行动提供精确、实时的战场地理空间情报.     

Scheduling target illuminators in naval battle-group anti-air warfare

We schedule a set of illuminators (homing devices) to strike a set of targets using surface-to-air missiles in a naval battle. The task is viewed as a production floor shop scheduling problem of minimizing the total weighted flow time, subject to time-window job availability and machine downtime side constraints. A simple algorithm based on solving assignment problems is developed for the case when all the job processing times are equal and the data are all integer. For the general case of scheduling jobs with unequal processing times, we develop two alternate formulations and analyze their relative strengths by comparing their respective linear programming relaxations. We select the better formulation in this comparison and exploit its special structures to develop several effective heuristic algorithms that provide good-quality solutions in real time; this is an essential element for use by the Navy. © 1995 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Emulating US Counterinsurgency Doctrine: Barriers for Developing Country Forces,Evidence from Peru

ABSTRACT

Recent US advances in counterinsurgency doctrine have been adopted by developing country armed forces. Nevertheless, no systematic study has examined the barriers they face to implementing highly involved counterinsurgency strategy. Tracing the evolution of Peruvian doctrine demonstrates that Peru was able to quickly improve the unity of effort, intelligence capacity, and military basing to meet the demands of a population-centric hearts-and-minds approach to counterinsurgency. Nevertheless, the limited tactical initiative and flexibility of Peruvian forces remains a challenge. The Peruvian experience is instructive for other militaries undergoing similar transitions. However, given the diversity of insurgent conflicts, this doctrine is not universally appropriate.     

情报信息主导警卫工作研究

全力推进警务信息化是公安“三项建设”的重要内容，情报信息建设则是公安警卫部队（以下简称警卫部队）信息化建设的重中之重。深刻认识情报信息对于警卫工作的重要性，抓住警卫情报信息建设的基础环节，健全和完善警卫情报信息机制建设，加强警卫情报信息的获取、分析、研判、预警、管理和应用，强化情报信息交流、协作和共享，对于确保警卫目标安全具有重要的现实意义。     

目标毁伤效果评估技术研究进展

目标毁伤效果评估作为目标保障的一项重要内容,对精确打击作战情报保障起到了核心作用,是现代精确打击体系的一个重要环节和关键步骤。文章从评估方法、评估模型和评估系统三个方面入手,梳理了国内外目标毁伤效果评估技术的最新研究进展,并对目前各类评估方法、模型及系统的优缺点分别进行了评述。最后,指出了该领域今后的研究方向。     

多手段综合探测巡航导弹的方法研究

巡航导弹具有隐蔽和突然的特点 ,对巡航导弹进行有效的探测 ,是抗击巡航导弹的关键 ,综合利用各种手段 ,组成空中与地面相结合、远方和近方相结合 ,先进手段与传统手段相结合的全方位、有重点的目标探测与报知体系 ,可增大对巡航导弹的探测距离 ,提高发现概率。     

Baixa do Cassang: Ending the abuse of Portuguese Africans

On 4 January 1961 in Baixa do Cassange, in the north of Angola, the blacks who worked in the cotton fields began a strike. The army with air support was called to quell the rebellion, and the article emphasizes the importance of air support tethered to the ground forces, particularly in a remote and vast area of operations in the tropical rainy season. In this case, the support originally came in the form a squadron of Lockheed PV-2 Harpoons from Luanda, some 300 kilometers away. These open-ocean reconnaissance aircraft and their crews were ill-suited for the task. When this became apparent, four small Auster D5/160s were relocated from Negage to Malange, among the ground forces. The Austers flew reconnaissance missions over the troubled zones, dropped provisions and messages to the advancing ground forces, and served as a backup communications link. When the strike ceased after three weeks, the Austers assumed a humanitarian role in support of the starving population. The conclusion is that air support to ground forces is indispensable, must be properly tailored to the job, and must operate as an integral part of the ground forces.