基于Marcov模型的舰艇舱室火灾蔓延风险

假设舰艇舱室内火灾蔓延按照发生燃烧的物品引燃次序进行,将舰艇舱室内可燃物燃烧分成若干种不同的燃烧状态,采用时问连续状态离散的Marcov模型,先后计算舰艇舱室火灾蔓延的转移概率速率函数和转移概率函数,得到不同时间下各种燃烧状态的概率分布,从而得到舰艇舱室火灾最大风险来临时间.此半经验的理论模型,可以用于舰艇火灾风险预测.     

舰艇舱室火灾危险性的评估方法

根据火灾形成和蔓延的机制 ,分析了影响舰艇火灾的各种因素 ,并建立了舱室火灾危险性的评估模型 .然后应用该模型对某型舰餐厅的火灾危险性进行了评估 ,提出了有效降低舱室火灾危险性的建议     

基于场模拟的舰艇防火优化设计

从舰艇结构与人员防护的角度来探讨舰艇防火优化设计,提出了舰艇防火优化设计参数,并利用场模拟模型对着火舱室与火灾蔓延舱室进行定量的数值计算与分析,来确定不能满足舰艇防火优化设计参数的舱室;进而根据分析的结论对这类舱室采取主动或者被动的消防措施.通过这些优化措施使得优化后的舱室满足舰艇防火结构优化设计参数,最终达到舰艇防火的目的.     

舰艇舱室烟气蔓延数值模拟

假设舰艇单舱室内的烟气沉降符合双层区域模型,然后运用质量、能量守恒和气体状态方程建立舰艇内多舱室烟气蔓延模型.采用火灾发展模型对某舰艇多舱室的烟气蔓延进行数值模拟计算,得到舱室内烟气温度变化和沉降变化并与CFAST软件计算的结果进行了比较.数值计算结果与CFAST模拟计算结果的变化趋势完全一致,时间提前了约10%～15%.     

船舶封闭舱室池火灾温度分布特性

为了研究船舶封闭舱室池火灾温度分布特性,首先根据船舶舱室火灾不同于建筑空间火灾的特点建立了火灾实验系统;其次,进行了不同火源功率的火灾实验,对封闭舱室火灾温度场进行分析研究,利用实验数据样本建立回归方程,并应用数理统计方法对回归方程的拟合度进行验证,总结出舱室火灾温度在水平和垂直两个方向上的分布特性;最后,建立了熄火时刻温度分布及时间预测模型。经实验证明:该方法为船舶火灾封舱灭火后确认重新开舱时间提供了理论依据。     

潜艇封舱灭火安全性分析

采用火灾区域模拟的方法建立了潜艇舱室火灾发展模型,并运用Runge-Kutta法对潜艇舱室火灾进行了模拟计算,经分析得出潜艇舱室中的燃烧过程具有缺氧、高温、快速的特点,进而证明了封舱灭火是一项适合于扑灭潜艇火灾的有效措施;然后,从潜艇火灾燃烧极不充分的特点出发,对火灾缺氧过程中产生烟气的主要成分CO的体积百分比进行了简...     

海军装备声学振动检测中心二分部正式成立

经海军装技部批准,海军装备声学振动检测中心二分部于1993年1月13日正式成立。该分部设在海军工程学院,下设办公室和舰船结构振动噪声检测室、舰船动力装置振动噪声检测室、舰船武备振动噪声检测室。其主要任务:以承接军内委托的任务为主,同时也承接军外单位委托的舰船的结构、机电、武备等噪声/振动的测量分析;新造舰船舱室空气噪声、平台噪声、结构振动和总体辐射噪声的测量分析;噪声/振动控制方案论证、降噪抑振试验研究;机电设备噪     

舰船空调系统改进性方案设计

本文针对航行在热带海区的某型舰船用空调系统存在的降温效果差、舱室风机盘管噪音大、操作管理不便等问题进行了研究,并提出了改进设计方案;经实船安装和调试,明显改善了空调舱室的舒适性,提高了设备工作的可靠性和自动化管理程度,收到了良好的效果。     

自然补风对舰船单开口舱室排烟的影响

为研究自然补风的补风口面积对舰船单开口舱室排烟效果的影响,在一个全尺寸的舰船单开口模拟舱室内,通过改变补风口上沿高度从而改变补风口面积,分别以舱室人眼高度处温度、烟气层高度、能见度及燃烧时间作为衡量排烟效果的标准进行了实验。实验结果表明:排烟能够显著降低舱室温度、提高舱室烟气层高度与恢复舱室能见度。当补风口面积较小时,补风速度较大,舱内烟气与新鲜空气掺混剧烈,油池燃烧速率增加,此时舱室降温效果更为明显,而烟气层稳定高度较低,能见度恢复较慢。     

潜艇舱室封闭条件下火灾烟流特性瞬态分析

将场模拟计算模型引入到潜艇非规则舱室火灾的仿真计算研究中,并在分析潜艇非规则结构舱室几何特性对烟气运动影响的基础上,对不同火源功率条件下、火源处于封闭舱室横向中心位置时的烟流瞬态特性进行了三维分析,得到了轴对称火烟流的体积分数、温度分布和烟气层厚度等特性.最后,与相同条件下的近壁面火烟流特性进行对比,发现舱室横向中心位...     

An Unlikely Alliance: Portuguese and South African Airpower in Angola, 1968–1974

The war that Portugal was obliged to fight in Africa began in 1961 and immediately stretched the resources of its armed forces. Nowhere was this thinness more apparent than in policing the vast territory of Angola. The east and southeast of Angola were particularly vulnerable, as the area was a vast, sparsely populated region characterised by enormous featureless plains or chanas covered in tall grass and broken by an extensive river system and mountainous forests. The only military solution to policing these immense spaces was aviation and specifically the helicopter that could carry troops into battle, protect them with a gunship and bring them home when the operation was concluded. The immediate problem for the Portuguese Air Force (Força Aérea Portuguesa or FAP) in Angola and elsewhere was a scarcity of helicopters. The solution was an alliance with South Africa, which had a strong inventory of Alouette IIIs, to help in policing the east. This move was likewise in the interest of South Africa, as its threat came from Zambia through south-eastern Angola. This article examines the strategic and tactical development of this unusual, cross-cultural alliance and the symbiotic relationship that resulted in destruction of the enemies of both in Angola.     

国内外结构钢焊条研究的现状与发展

本文主要介绍了国外焊条的现状和发展趋势,包括焊条的高韧性、高效率、低尘低毒和耐吸潮性能,为国内的焊条研究提供了参考依据。     

A Sign of Victory?: ‘Scottish Swords’ and Other Weapons in the Possession of the ‘Auld Innemie’

Many late medieval documents, notably inventories of arms and armour, of Englishmen contain references to ‘Scottish swords’ and other weapons. What did the compilers of these documents mean when they described a weapon as ‘Scottish’? How did such weapons come to be in the possession of these men? This article will attempt to explain this phenomenon drawing on primary documentary sources and surviving material culture from Glasgow Museums’ collections and others, as well as artworks from the period.     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

Cyberpower in Strategic Affairs: Neither Unthinkable nor Blessed

Abstract

This article explores the effect of connectivity on strategic affairs. It argues that the effect on war's character is potentially, although not yet shown in practice, considerably large. Its effect upon the distribution of power among states in the international system is small, contrary to the claims of ‘cyberwar’ alarmists. All told, however, its effect upon strategic affairs is complex. On the one hand, it represents a significant advance in the ‘complexification’ of state strategies, understood in the sense of the production of intended effects. On the other hand, strategists today – still predominantly concerned with the conflicts and confrontations of states and organised military power – are generally missing the power which non-traditional strategic actors, better adapted to the network flows of the information age, are beginning to deploy. These new forms of organization and coercion will challenge the status quo.     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.