Timely exposure of a secret project: Which activities to monitor?

A defender wants to detect as quickly as possible whether some attacker is secretly conducting a project that could harm the defender. Security services, for example, need to expose a terrorist plot in time to prevent it. The attacker, in turn, schedules his activities so as to remain undiscovered as long as possible. One pressing question for the defender is: which of the project's activities to focus intelligence efforts on? We model the situation as a zero‐sum game, establish that a late‐start schedule defines a dominant attacker strategy, and describe a dynamic program that yields a Nash equilibrium for the zero‐sum game. Through an innovative use of cooperative game theory, we measure the harm reduction thanks to each activity's intelligence effort, obtain insight into what makes intelligence effort more effective, and show how to identify opportunities for further harm reduction. We use a detailed example of a nuclear weapons development project to demonstrate how a careful trade‐off between time and ease of detection can reduce the harm significantly.     

Wellington's use of deception tactics in the Peninsular War

Wellington's use of intelligence developed throughout his military career. Arguably, his experiences in India taught him the importance of intelligence, but it was during the Peninsular War that he honed his analytical techniques. As the war progressed, he developed sophisticated methods for the integration of strategic intelligence – largely gathered by civilian agents – with operational intelligence – collected by military personnel. This allowed him to develop operational conceptualisation, which in turn contributed to the successes he achieved over the French forces in Iberia. However, more than anything, it was his considered use of intelligence, combined with intricate deception operations in the latter stages of the conflict, which deprived the French of reliable intelligence on his own movements, and demonstrated his understanding of the importance of intelligence. This article investigates Wellington's increasing awareness of the importance of intelligence and deception during the Peninsular War.     

Unnecessary or unsung? The utilisation of airpower in Britain's colonial counterinsurgencies

Making extensive use of primary archival documents, this article seeks to explore whether airpower in three of Britain's most significant post-war colonial counterinsurgency campaigns, Malaya, Kenya and South Arabia, was an unnecessary part of British strategy, offering little useful military force due to the futility and strategic damage rendered by offensive bombardment, or whether airpower was indeed an unsung factor that provided operational flexibility through its effectiveness in a supply context, as well as its intelligence role in providing valuable aerial reconnaissance. In all three case studies the role played by the RAF in medical evacuations, in troop drops, in crop spraying during food-denial initiatives, and in providing ‘Voice Aircraft’ for the propaganda campaign, provide insights into an under-explored component of Britain's politico-military efforts in counterinsurgency in the 1950s and 1960s and suggests that the main strategic value of airpower in counterinsurgency, then and now, lies in its non-kinetic functions.     

Deterrence in the Gulf War

A recently published collection of captured Iraqi records offers an opportunity to better understand Saddam Hussein's perception of US and Israeli deterrence signals, affording innovative insights into the reasons behind Iraq's restraint from using weapons of mass destruction against Israeli targets during the 1991 Gulf War. This article tests a wide range of suggested hypotheses, and suggests that US and Israeli deterrence played only a minimal role in dissuading Iraqi use of WMD. The article concludes with some thoughts on the practical implications, particularly on the effectiveness of a “no-first-use” nuclear policy.     

一种改进的电子情报分析模型

电子情报的分析处理,对提高电子对抗作战效能意义重大。综合运用聚类算法和分类算法构建了一种改进的电子情报分析模型。该模型首先通过基于粗糙集改进的k-means算法完成对记录数据库中雷达信号的聚类分选,选取聚类中心信号表征此类信号;再采用粗糙集提取有效的最优规则并用于聚类中心脉冲识别,从而分选出已知信号和未知信号;未知信号确定其特性后添加到已知威胁雷达数据库。通过仿真,验证了该模型的适用性和有效性。     

SEA的侦察与监测系统效能分析

侦察与监测系统已成为现代C3I系统的重要组成部分,其效能评估既有C3I系统的一般性又有自身的特殊性。首先在一般系统效能含义上定义了侦察与监测系统的系统效能,比较了几种典型的C3I系统评估方法。在此基础上,将SEA方法应用于分析侦察与监测系统效能,并将情报信息量作为效能度量的指标。最后给出了分析计算过程和仿真结果。     

A generalization of the entropy model for brand purchase behavior

Hemiter's entropy model for brand purchase behavior has been generalized for Renyi's measure of entropy which is a more general concept than Shannon's measure of entropy used by Herniter and which includes Shannon's measure as a limiting case. The generalized model considered here is more flexible than Herniter's model since it can give different marketing statistics for different products and it can give these statistics even when only some of the brands are considered.     

IRA operational intelligence: the heartbeat of the war

This article will seek to provide a detailed examination of the IRA's operational intelligence methodologies. Providing not only a lengthy discussion on the organization's intelligence collection protocols, it will also examine the interplay between intelligence and IRA decision-making. It will be contended that intelligence's influence resided in its ability to introduce a strong element of predictability into the IRA's decision-making process. This depended on an ability to construct a detailed intelligence picture of the target and its geographical milieu so as to minimize the likelihood of volunteers encountering unforeseen circumstances that could adversely affect planned or anticipated outcomes.     

Budget allocation,national security,military intelligence,and human capital: a dynamic model

This study develops a dynamic model that integrates military intelligence into the defense capability of the country and the optimal allocation of its government budget. We assert that the effectiveness of the country’s military intelligence is contingent on the quality of its human capital, which, in turn, implies a long-term positive relationship between the government’s various civilian expenditures and its capacity to achieve a cost-effective intelligence and, hence, military capability. This relationship is developed within a multiple-period arms race model between two rivals. Using this model and stylized data for the Israeli–Syrian arms race, we show that an appropriate budget shift from defense to civilian expenditures during the initial periods of the planning horizon will gradually (over a decade, say) increase the quality of human capital in the country and, thus, the effectiveness of its intelligence, which, in turn, will increase the country’s future security and welfare.     

C2组织效能测度的设计与应用

采用自底向上逐层递进的方法对C 2组织的测度指标加以归纳总结,建立了物理层,状态层和效能层3层测度指标框架,把C 2组织的效能测度抽象为组织代价测度和组织收益测度两个评价性的指标,并给出具体的计算方法。再结合探索性分析方法,实现了C 2组织效能测度在不确定使命环境下对关键性任务判断的应用,验证了C 2组织效能测度的有效性。     

基于模糊数的防空C3I系统效能评估

根据模糊数适于量化模糊信息的特点,运用模糊集理论,提出了一种基于模糊数的模糊综合评估方法.通过计算被评估系统效能的模糊数,将问题转化为模糊数的排序问题,并给出了采用该方法对防空C3I系统效能评估的模型及实现步骤.该方法能对防空C3I系统的效能指标进行合理的量化处理,较好地解决了防空C3I系统效能评估问题,通过计算实例验证了该方法的正确性和实用性.     

Uncovering foreign military innovation

An analysis of US assessments of Germany's development of armored warfare illustrates the problems that intelligence agencies face as they attempt to understand military innovation. The covert nature of German Army's tank research in the years immediately following World War I limited the number of indicators of Berlin's interest in armored warfare. Similarly, the United States possessed at best a fragmentary picture of German experimentation with armor. By the outbreak of World War II, however, US military attaches had nonetheless developed an accurate understanding of German concepts of armored warfare. If the United States is to avoid strategic surprise in the future, it must cultivate intelligence sources and employ considerably different methods from those of the Cold War.     

用不确定性度量作战效能的评估方法

把作战过程分解成多个节点,用不确定性自信息量度量各节点完成任务的程度,并改造了信息熵函数,得出一种适合求解作战效能的评估方法.最后,针对一实例进行效能评估建模、验模和灵敏度分析.     

谈公安边防派出所辖区刑事情报的收集

公安边防派出所辖区刑事情报的收集是一项十分重要的基础工作。针对公安边防派出所在辖区刑事情报收集工作中存在的问题,提出提高素质,苦练“基本功”;加强协作,实现信息共享;密切联系,充分调动群众积极性;规范管理,强化秘密力量作用;深入发掘,积极拓宽收集渠道;改变观念,以情报主导侦查等对策。     

Airpower in the Mau Mau conflict: the government's chief weapon

Strategists are currently debating the efficacy airpower provides in counterinsurgency operations. Through the lens of Colonel John Warden's theory of systemic paralysis, this essay reveals the truth about how airpower was employed in the Mau Mau conflict – a subject that has, until now, been both shrouded in mystery and inaccurately reported. It reveals that the use of airpower in a conflict occurring almost 60 years ago proffers a number of lessons for its use in counterinsurgencies today. Moreover, it discovers that although useful in many respects, Warden's model is somewhat limited for analysing the true use of airpower in counterinsurgencies today and consequently, a more appropriate model is offered for airpower strategists to use in such conflicts.     

Economic design of a two-stage control chart based on both performance and surrogate variables

The traditional approach to economic design of control charts is based on the assumption that a process is monitored using only a performance variable. If, however, the performance variable is costly to measure and a less expensive surrogate variable is available, the process may be more efficiently controlled by using both performance and surrogate variables. In this article we propose a model for economic design of a two-stage control chart which uses a highly correlated surrogate variable together with a performance variable. The process is assumed to be monitored by the surrogate variable until it signals out-of-control behavior, then by the performance variable until it signals out-of-control behavior or maintains in-control signals for a prespecified amount of time, and the two variables are used in alternating fashion. An algorithm based on the direct search method of Hooke and Jeeves [6] is used to find the optimum values of design parameters. The proposed model is applied to the end-closure welding process for nuclear fuel to compute the amount of reduction in cost compared with the current control procedure. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 46: 958–977, 1999     

Allocation of resources to offensive strategic weapon systems

In this paper a very versatile game model is developed for use in the long range planning of our strategic force posture. This highly aggregate model yields optimal force mixes for the triad (land- and sea-based missile systems and bombers) under a variety of constraints. The model described here is a survivability model; however, it is shown how the model can still be used as a measure of overall system effectiveness. Constraints imposed on the problem include both SALT and budget limitations.     

Value added analysis for army equipment modernization

This paper describes the Value Added Analysis methodology which is used as part of the U.S. Army's Planning, Programming, Budgeting, and Execution System to assist the Army leadership in evaluating and prioritizing competing weapon system alternatives during the process of building the Army budget. The Value Added Analysis concept uses a family of models to estimate an alternative system's contribution to the Army's effectiveness using a multiattribute value hierarchy. A mathematical optimization model is then used to simultaneously determine an alternative's cost‐benefit and to identify an optimal mix of weapon systems for inclusion in the Army budget. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 46: 233–253, 1999     

Combined variance reduction techniques in fully sequential selection procedures

In the past several decades, many ranking‐and‐selection (R&S) procedures have been developed to select the best simulated system with the largest (or smallest) mean performance measure from a finite number of alternatives. A major issue to address in these R&S problems is to balance the trade‐off between the effectiveness (ie, making a correct selection with a high probability) and the efficiency (ie, using a small total number of observations). In this paper, we take a frequentist's point of view by setting a predetermined probability of correct selection while trying to reduce the total sample size, that is, to improve the efficiency but also maintain the effectiveness. In particular, in order to achieve this goal, we investigate combining various variance reduction techniques into the fully sequential framework, resulting in different R&S procedures with either finite‐time or asymptotic statistical validity. Extensive numerical experiments show great improvement in the efficiency of our proposed procedures as compared with several existing procedures.     

复杂电磁环境中水面舰艇作战效能评估的指数模型

复杂电磁环境中水面舰艇作战效能评估对于信息化海战场中水面舰艇兵力的战术运用极为重要,目前还处于一个探索阶段.分析了复杂电磁环境对舰艇装备的作用机理和对舰艇作战活动的影响,建立了效能评估指标体系,针对复杂电磁环境对武器装备作战效能的影响难以定量描述的问题,提出了复杂电磁环境作战效能影响因子这一概念,研究了其求解方法,在此基础上,采用指数法构造了复杂电磁环境中水面舰艇作战效能评估模型,并通过仿真验证了其可用性.