Countering Insurgent-terrorism: Why Nato Chose The Wrong Historical Foundation For Cimic

History teaches that counterinsurgency and counterterrorism campaigns have never been won through purely military action. Defeating an opponent who avoids open battle, but who uses force to reach his goals, including terrorist action, requires a combination of police, administrative, economic and military measures. As a counterinsurgency campaign should pursue a comprehensive political objective, it requires high levels of civil–military cooperation. However, current NATO doctrine for Civil–Military Cooperation (CIMIC) as it emerged from the 1990s is founded in conventional war-fighting and outdated peacekeeping doctrine. CIMIC's focus is on supporting military objectives rather than enabling the military to make a coherent contribution to political objectives. This makes CIMIC unfit for the Alliance's main operational challenges that have expanded from peace operations on the Balkans to countering insurgent terrorism in Afghanistan. When developing CIMIC, the Alliance obviously neglected the historical lessons from counterinsurgency campaigns.     

关于消防工作新机制的思考

以《消防法》确定的消防工作＂原则＂为标志,我国消防工作形成了政府统一领导、部门监管协调、单位主体责任、公民积极参与、社会组织协同的工作新机制,其中政府领导是统领,部门监督协调是关键,单位主体责任是重点,公民积极参与是基础,社会组织是重要补充,这五个方面互相联系,密不可分,是一个统一的整体。     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Identifying the spoilers in the security sector reform – disarmament demobilisation and reintegration process in the Congo

The Congolese security sector reform – disarmament demobilisation and reintegration (SSR-DDR) process has suffered from setbacks in its military sector during the last 10 years, such as insufficient funding, lack of coordination and domestic reluctance to major changes, with as a result, a very fragile and disjointed Army. These problems have deepened as officers have defected from the Army and caused new instability in the East of the Congo. This article aims to analyse the recent mutinies and the reaction by the Congolese government by applying a capabilities-based approach in combination with a typology of spoilers. The objective is to identify and classify the spoilers and answer the questions of why they emerge now and how they are dealt with on a national level. From the analysis, the author suggests that there are several spoilers involved in the current situation – the most powerful being the Congolese and the Rwandan governments, prompting the question of whether an international involvement is necessary to solve the problem.     

Coordinating independent buyers with integer‐ratio time coordination and quantity discounts

Supply chain members can gain substantial benefits by coordinating their activities. However, a remaining challenge is to create useful coordination mechanisms when channel members are independent. This paper develops a coordination strategy with which a supplier uses quantity discounts to entice independent buyers to comply with an integer‐ratio time coordination scheme. The problem is analyzed as a Stackelberg game in which the supplier acts as the leader by announcing its coordination policy in advance and buyers act as followers by deciding their ordering decisions with this information. The strategy is compared to a coordination mechanism with quantity discounts and power‐of‐two time coordination. While both strategies are able to produce substantial benefits over simple quantity discounts, integer‐ratio time coordination provides a better coordination mechanism for a decentralized supply chain. It is shown that power‐of‐two time coordination may not be able to provide a stable equilibrium coordination strategy when buyers act independently and opportunistically. Furthermore, if this is not the case, integer‐ratio time coordination is at least equally effective. Unlike a centralized solution, under which the improvement by integer‐ratio over power‐of‐two time coordination is limited to 2% of optimality, system cost reduction from a decentralized coordination strategy could be much more significant. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004.     

Building the Rule of Law: A Model of Police-Military Relations in Latin America

United States policy makers and academic researchers have neglected the deep institutional rivalries between police agencies and military services in Latin America. The problems of police/military coordination have complicated US national goals of democratization, strengthening the rule of law and combating the production and trafficking of illicit drugs in the region. Police agencies stand at the epicenter of dysfunctional criminal justice systems. Although the US policy of engagement with Latin American military services is intended to reorient their roles and missions towards supporting democratically elected civilian governments, US counternarcotics assistance programs have encouraged a wider Latin American military role in drug interdiction. This article develops an analytical model to identify the dimensions of police-military conflict in the context of the fundamental reform of criminal justice systems in Latin America.     

黑社会性质组织犯罪相关问题研究

1997年修订后的我国刑法增加了打击黑社会性质组织犯罪的相应条款,即294条,刑事执法部门在打击此犯罪活动中有了相应的法律依据。但是,对于黑社会性质组织的概念和黑社会性质组织与其它相类似的犯罪组织之间的界限等基本理论问题,在司法、学术界却存在不同认识。有必要统一认识,以利于立法的科学与严密和司法的准确与公正。     

Optimal capacity in a coordinated supply chain

We consider a supply chain in which a retailer faces a stochastic demand, incurs backorder and inventory holding costs and uses a periodic review system to place orders from a manufacturer. The manufacturer must fill the entire order. The manufacturer incurs costs of overtime and undertime if the order deviates from the planned production capacity. We determine the optimal capacity for the manufacturer in case there is no coordination with the retailer as well as in case there is full coordination with the retailer. When there is no coordination the optimal capacity for the manufacturer is found by solving a newsvendor problem. When there is coordination, we present a dynamic programming formulation and establish that the optimal ordering policy for the retailer is characterized by two parameters. The optimal coordinated capacity for the manufacturer can then be obtained by solving a nonlinear programming problem. We present an efficient exact algorithm and a heuristic algorithm for computing the manufacturer's capacity. We discuss the impact of coordination on the supply chain cost as well as on the manufacturer's capacity. We also identify the situations in which coordination is most beneficial. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

Environmental regulation in project‐based industries

We study the environmental regulation of industrial activities that are organized as projects. Applications arise in construction, ship and aircraft building, and film making, among other industries. Relative to manufacturing, environmental regulation is different in project‐based industries, due to the uniqueness and geographical diversity of projects, and a lack of product takeback programs. Because the amount of waste and pollution generated by project companies can be large, regulators need environmental policies to ensure reduction of waste and pollution. We consider a regulator who attempts to maximize social welfare. We model this problem as a bilevel nonlinear program. The upper level regulator specifies waste reduction targets, which the lower level project companies meet using waste stream reduction and remediation of pollution, while attempting to control their project costs. We find that high waste diversion targets lead to outcomes with little pollution, but excessive project costs and only modest waste stream reduction. Projects that have lower task precedence density, or that have pollutants with different environmental impacts, show larger increases in project cost and time resulting from regulation. We describe a subsidy for waste stream reduction that coordinates the system, and we estimate the value of coordination. We also describe a bonus that encourages truthful reporting by project companies, and evaluate the relative cost and effectiveness of the subsidy and the bonus. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 228–247, 2015     

The Tacit Evolution of Coordination and Strategic Outcomes in Highly Fragmented Insurgencies: Evidence from the Soviet War in Afghanistan

Highly fragmented insurgencies often lack explicit coordination mechanisms such as plans, direct means of communication, or hierarchical organization. Many such insurgencies nevertheless obtain a high degree of coordination that produces strategic-level effects. This article presents a theory of how coordination can emerge tacitly in highly fragmented insurgencies, and how this can produce strategic-level effects. Strategic effects emerge through a combination of complementary and supplementary tactical-level actions between commonly positioned insurgent groups. The theory is then tested again evidence from the Soviet–Afghan War. The evidence presented shows that some of the Mujahidin's strategic-level effectiveness was produced through tacit coordination.     

俄罗斯等国对军警遂行反恐任务中权益的保护及启示

俄罗斯等国对军警遂行反恐任务中的权益作出五点保护：遂行反恐任务身体受到伤害、牺牲者,国家给予补偿金赔偿;因遂行反恐任务人身安全受到恐怖威胁,提出整容要求者国家予以解决;遂行反恐任务期间的军龄优惠计算;处置恐怖事件造成的损害免于法律追究;处置恐怖事件损失的个人财产由国家赔偿。俄罗斯等国对军警遂行反恐任务中权益保护的做法,对我国有两点启示：要进一步完善保护遂行反恐任务的武警官兵生命权等权利的法律;要进一步完善保护遂行反恐任务的武警官兵经济权利的法律。     

Contracts and coordination: Supply chains with uncertain demand and supply

Considering a supply chain with a supplier subject to yield uncertainty selling to a retailer facing stochastic demand, we find that commonly studied classical coordination contracts fail to coordinate both the supplier's production and the retailer's procurement decisions and achieve efficient performance. First, we study the vendor managed inventory (VMI) partnership. We find that a consignment VMI partnership coupled with a production cost subsidy achieves perfect coordination and a win‐win outcome; it is simple to implement and arbitrarily allocates total channel profit. The production cost subsidy optimally chosen through Nash bargaining analysis depends on the bargaining power of the supplier and the retailer. Further, motivated by the practice that sometimes the retailer and the supplier can arrange a “late order,” we also analyze the behavior of an advance‐purchase discount (APD) contract. We find that an APD with a revenue sharing contract can efficiently coordinate the supply chain as well as achieve flexible profit allocation. Finally, we explore which coordination contract works better for the supplier vs. the retailer. It is interesting to observe that Nash bargaining solutions for the two coordination contracts are equivalent. We further provide recommendations on the applications of these contracts. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 63: 305–319, 2016     

Detecting Problems in Military Expenditure Data Using Digital Analysis

The UN asks governments to report key figures of their annual military budgets with the aim of creating trust among member states. This goal can only be achieved if the data reported is accurate. However, although there are many reasons for governments to falsify data, the UN does not check for manipulation. In this paper, we apply Benford’s law to the military expenditure data of 27 states taken from the UN register. Our analysis of the first digits shows that the states with the greatest deviations from the expected Benford distribution and therefore the lowest data quality are the USA and the UK.     

Party preferences and institutional transformation: revisiting France’s relationship with NATO (and the common wisdom on Gaullism)

ABSTRACT

France’s so-called exceptionalism in multilateral security policy is often explained with its Gaullist political culture. However, a closer look shows that Gaullism cannot easily capture different French policies, particularly toward NATO. To unearth what can explain policy variance, this paper asks the question of whether French political parties value NATO differently and, if so, to what effect? Looking at French governments from 1991 to 2014, I argue that political parties in France carry different values, which lead them to interpret NATO’s role for France’s security policy differently. As a result, French parties in power encouraged, delayed, or halted NATO institutional transformation at specific junctures. This argument builds on the insights of the study of ideational factors in IR and the study of party politics in Comparative Politics. Through an analysis of French governments’ policy preferences toward NATO, this paper stresses that institutional transformation can be understood through the study of veto points in conjunction with national preference formation.     

COURTING THE GLOBAL SOUTH WITH “DUAL-BENEFIT” NONPROLIFERATION ENGAGEMENT

President Barack Obama and an array of other Western leaders continue to assert that the spread of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) to non-state actors is one of most pressing challenges to global security today. Yet, Western efforts to engage governments—particularly governments across the global South—in a practical nonproliferation dialogue have largely yielded disappointing results. This viewpoint examines the need for a new strategy to engage the developing world in nonproliferation programs. It argues that strategies focused strictly on WMD nonproliferation are unsustainable, and ultimately are destined for failure. An alternative “dual-benefit” nonproliferation engagement strategy utilizes the enlightened self-interest of partner governments needed to achieve broad-based buy-in among all partners. In a concluding section, we recommend that the “Group of 8” Global Partnership Against the Spread of Weapons and Materials of Mass Destruction standardize this model of nonproliferation engagement as it sets out to identify and fund WMD nonproliferation capacity-building initiatives beyond the states of the former Soviet Union.     

Trade credit contract in the presence of retailer investment opportunity

This paper presents a model for designing a trade credit contract between a supplier and a retailer that would coordinate a supply chain in the presence of investment opportunity for the retailer. Specifically, we study a newsvendor model where the supplier offers a trade credit contract to the retailer who, by delaying the payment, can invest the accounts payable amount and earn returns. We find that when the channel partners have symmetric information about the retailer's investment return, a conditionally concessional trade credit (CTC) contract, which includes a wholesale price, an interest‐free period, and a minimum order requirement, can achieve channel coordination. We then extend the model to the information asymmetry setting in which the retailer's investment return is unobservable by the supplier. We show that, although the CTC contract cannot achieve the coordination in this setting, it can effectively improve channel efficiency as well as profitability for individual partners.     

HESTool:基于层次链知识组织的专家系统工具

提出了任务 (Task)的概念 ,每个任务代表一种知识源。不同的任务可以采用不同知识表示形式及推理策略。一个知识库由一组前向或后向链构成的任务链组成 ,实现了知识库的结构化、可视化 ,支持知识部件的可重用与共享。同时 ,结合可视化技术、数据库技术 ,开发出实用性较强的专家系统工具HESTool,该工具提供了一种知识建模机制     

MODERN-DAY SLAVERY?

Hundreds of thousands of African men, women and children are being forced into situations of labour and sexual exploitation both on the continent and abroad every year. Internationally, trafficking in persons has been identified as a serious threat to human security and development by governments, pressure groups and the UN. But for many African governments, the problem has only recently been acknowledged. This article, the first in a two part series on the issue, outlines the types and extent of trafficking in Africa, with a focus on West and Central Africa. Contributing factors, in particular the high profit margins and low risk of arrest and conviction, are reviewed as well as the impact on human rights, public health, community and family development and the growth of organised crime. The second article in the series will consider successful strategies and international programmes, with a focus on the lessons learned for Africa from West Africa.     

Driving force coordinated control of an 8 ×8 in-wheel motor drive vehicle with tire-road friction coefficient identification

Because of the complexities of tire-road interaction,the wheels of a multi-wheel distributed electric drive vehicle can easily slip under certain working conditions.As wheel slip affects the dynamic per-formance and stability of the vehicle,it is crucial to control it and coordinate the driving force.With this aim,this paper presents a driving force coordination control strategy with road identification for eight-wheeled electric vehicles equipped with an in-wheel motor for each wheel.In the proposed control strategy,the road identification module estimates tire-road forces using an unscented Kalman filter al-gorithm and recognizes the road adhesion coefficient by employing the recursive least-square method.According to road identification,the optimal slip ratio under the current driving condition is obtained,and a controller based on sliding mode control with a conditional integrator uses this value for accel-eration slip regulation.The anti-slip controller obtains the adjusting torque,which is integrated with the driver-command-based feedforward control torque to implement driving force coordination control.The results of hardware-in-loop simulation show that this control strategy can accurately estimate tire-road forces as well as the friction coefficient,and thus,can effectively fulfill the purpose of driving force coordinated control under different driving conditions.     

舰艇编队舰机协同反潜警戒模型研究

反潜作战是联合机动编队的主要作战任务之一, 舰机协同反潜研究有着十分广阔的应用前景。根据舰机协同反潜行动的特点,给出了联合机动编队警戒范围的数学模型,以直升机吊放声纳和舰艇拖曳声纳为主要因素,重点研究联合机动编队及其舰载反潜直升机协同反潜作战过程中的建模与仿真问题,建立了单机和双机联合舰艇编队反潜模型。