武器装备体系贡献率模型研究

采用效能评估的相关理论,通过建立效能与任务完成概率之间的映射关系,提出了基于"观察—定位—决策—行动"(OODA)过程的武器装备体系贡献率评估模型。对OODA模型中的观察、定位、决策、行动要素按照装备对任务行动的支撑关系及子任务之间的综合关系,分别建立了描述侦察预警装备、指控通信装备和火力打击装备的数学模型,并采用对比方法建立了体系贡献率模型。所附算例验证了建模方法的可行性,能够在一定程度上支撑装备论证研究。     

作战任务分解策略与规范化描述方法研究

现代战争呈现多域协同、多任务并发、多要素耦合的新形态,对作战任务规划提出了新的挑战。对复杂的作战任务进行合理分解和规范化描述是提高任务规划科学性、提升任务规划效率和任务完成质量的有效手段。在系统阐释作战任务分解相关概念的基础上,提出作战任务分解的基本原则,借鉴“霍尔三维结构”模型,提出基于“时间维、逻辑维、活动维”的作战任务分解策略,定义了元任务的规范化描述形式,从时序、逻辑和功能三方面对元任务之间的关系进行了规范化描述,应用案例研究表明,所提出的方法对于复杂作战任务的合理化分解和规范化描述可行且有效。     

多作战任务时间协同规划方法

通过分析多作战任务的特点,考虑到多任务之间的时间协同关系,提出一种作战任务的时间规划方法。采用时间网络图描述作战行动,分析作战计划的时间分配合理性,设计一种基于关键任务的时间冲突消解方法对作战任务的时间冲突进行消解。最后,以抢滩登陆作战的作战背影,合理规划了兵力运送和火力压制的作战任务。仿真结果表明,该方法可以有效辅助指挥员快速进行作战任务时间规划,帮助指挥员实时调整作战计划,对作战指挥具有重要的指导价值。     

空中突击部队装备体系作战任务建模方法研究

空中突击部队是由多装备系统组成的装备体系,在执行任务过程中体现多阶段多任务的特点。基于DoDAF体系框架,结合美军空中突击部队装备体系作战任务展开研究。首先,通过作战任务的形式化描述,建立了装备体系作战任务的四元组描述模型;其次,在DoDAF体系框架下,提出建立空中突击部队装备体系作战任务的静态模型和动态模型;最后通过仿真方法对动态模型进行验证,证明了该模型的可信性。     

基于IDEF3的指挥控制任务描述方法

指挥控制任务的描述是实现任务和资源优化匹配的基础.给出了指挥控制任务的形式化定义,提出了一种基于IDEF3的指挥控制任务描述方法.在IDEF3的过程流网中可能存在死锁和同步丢失这两类结构性冲突.为了确保所建立的指挥控制任务描述模型的正确性.提出了基于图化简方法的IDEF3过程流网检验方法,其主要思路是利用三条规则对过程流网进行化简,如最终能将模型规约为空则表示不存在这两类冲突.最后给出了一个简单的示例.     

面向装备体系试验评估不确定性的两类模型对比

面向装备体系试验评估的不确定性,采用响应函数、复杂网络等两类模型分析待评估的数据源及方法特点的差异。结合装备体系效能典型指标及体系适用性,一类采用“试验设计-响应函数-迭代优化”方法对装备体系的作战效能进行评估,另一类采用“单元-多层网络-体系”模式构设多层网络化模型。在此基础上,对装备体系的适用性进行分析。分析两类方法对任务完成度的支撑力度,并基于不确定性对比两类方法所得结果。两类模型从不同角度考虑了装备单元固有特性、单元之间关系、装备体系的耦合效应与涌现效应。该研究可为装备体系试验评估提供不同对比思路。     

基于协同相关度的作战任务分解优化

针对协同作战中任务分解的优化问题,构建了任务协同相关度的量化模型。对作战任务中几个基本概念进行定义,从时间、逻辑、功能3个维度对任务间的协同关系进行了形式化描述,在此基础上,建立了任务协同关系的综合度量模型。最后,通过设置任务协同度阈值的方法,对协同紧密的任务进行聚合,实现任务分解的优化。通过仿真实验验证了模型的可行性和有效性。     

信息时代作战体系的概念模型及其描述

提出了信息化战场作战体系的概念与定义，给出了作战体系的描述，把信息化战场作战体系的组成划分为三类基本元素和六种关系，这些关系包括任务序列关系、任务分配关系、作战单元间的协作关系、作战单元间的指挥控制关系、任务信息流和体系的信息网络拓扑，并给出了这些关系的描述途径与方法。信息化战场作战体系的描述为作战体系自同步构建与重组的实现奠定了基础。     

多视图作战系统描述模型

从适应面向作战任务的作战系统动态集成需求出发,针对缺乏对现有作战系统描述模型的现状,借鉴Zachman框架和C4ISR体系结构框架理论和方法,给出了作战系统的形式化描述,提出了一种新的多视图作战系统描述模型,并对各个视图给出详细的描述,为实现以作战任务为中心对作战系统的分析、评估与选择奠定了基础,最后进行了总结.     

复杂约束下的导弹作战任务规划模型和算法研究

导弹作战任务规划是一个涉及时间、资源、质量和其他关系约束的复杂问题。首先通过定义约束满足效用对基本约束满足模型进行了扩展，建立了导弹任务规划的约束满足优化模型。在此基础上，研究了任务规划模型求解的时间和效用传播算法，提出了基于综合效用的优化求解框架。该模型和求解框架易于解决具有多种约束因素的复杂问题，具有较好的通用性。通过定义软、硬约束效用，使得实际任务规划问题求解具有更好的灵活性。     

Putin – the masked nemesis of the strategy of ambiguity

Recent events demonstrate the complex and adaptive approach employed by Russia to reassert influence in Europe. The changing face of Russia’s strategy commenced in 2007 when it launched a crippling cyber-attack against Estonia. This was followed by a large Russian conventional attack against Georgia in 2008, occupying two large areas of the nation. 2014 witnessed the Russian annexation of Crimea where in just a week, Russia seized control of Crimea “without firing a shot.” The annexation of Crimea was rapidly followed by a Russian inspired and led subversive war in eastern Ukraine. The common thread among these diverse Russian operations is its use of ambiguity to confound and confuse decision makers in the West.     

India's counter-insurgency experience: the ‘trust and nurture’ strategy

The Indian Army, a force trained primarily for conventional warfare, has been engaged in internal counter-insurgency operations since the 1950s. Despite such a long innings on a counter-insurgency mode, little attention has been accorded within military circles to doctrinal innovation for waging sub-conventional warfare in India's democratic political context. At best, the Army continues to view counter-insurgency duty as secondary to its primary duty of defending India from external conventional threats. By conceptualizing a counter-insurgency strategy of ‘trust and nurture’, this article aims to fill this critical doctrinal gap in India's military policy. The author argues that a counter-insurgency strategy of ‘trust and nurture’ based on democratic political culture, measured military methods, special counter-insurgency forces, local social and cultural awareness and an integrative nation-building approach will result in positive handling of India's internal security problems. The author utilizes India's counter-insurgency experiences in Assam, Mizoram, Nagaland, Punjab, and Operation ‘Sadhbhavana’ in Jammu and Kashmir as illustrative empirical indicants in order to validate the ‘trust and nurture’ strategy.     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.     

Reviews

Douglas S. Derrer, We Are All the Target: A Handbook of Terrorism Avoidance and Hostage Survival. Annapolis, MD: US Naval Institute Press, 1992. Pp. x+135, notes, index. $14.95. ISBN 01–55750–150–5

Ian Knight, Zulu: Isandlwana and Rorke's Drift, 22–23 January 1879. London: Windrow & Greene, 1992. Pp.136, 150 illus., incl 8 colour plates, maps, biblio. £35. ISBN 1–872004–23–7

Ian Knight, By the Orders of the Great White Queen: Campaigning in Zululand through the Eyes of the British Soldiers, 1879. London: Greenhill Books and Novato: Presidio Press, 1992. Pp. 272, 17 illus., 1 map. £18.95. ISBN 1–85367–122–3

Manfried Rauchensteiner and Erwin A. Schmidl (eds.), Formen des Krieges: vom Mittelalter zum ‘Low‐intensity’ Conflict’. Graz : Verlag Styria, 1991. Pp.208. DM35. ISBN 3–22–12139–7

Harold J. Kearsley, Maritime Power and the Twenty‐First Century. Dartmouth: Dartmouth Publishing Company, Limited, 1992. Pp.xv + 203, 13 diagrams, index. £32.50. ISBN 1–85521–288–9     

Helping hands: external support for the KNU insurgency in Burma

This article analyses to what extent the Burmese KNU insurgency made use of external support from states, refugees, and diasporas. Based on extensive fieldwork it is concluded that support from neighbouring states and refugees has for years kept the Karen rebellion alive. Western countries perceived forms of resistance to the illegitimate Burmese regime as just and have therefore played a crucial role in the continuation of conflict in Karen State. It is important that policymakers and donors as well as executing organizations continue to reflect critically on the way they exercise their work.     

基于GTST-DMLD-ESD的装备RMS建模仿真

装备的RMS是装备的重要设计参数,是影响战备完好和保障能力的关键因素.引入GTST-DMLD作为主要建模工具,建立起装备系统的RMS描述模型,以ESD为补充和扩展,对维修过程进行建模.并以GTST-DMLD-ESD模型作为装备RMS仿真的核心,对装备RMS仿真模型的总体框架进行了研究,并对各模块进行了较为详细的探讨.