消防部队处置生物突发事件辅助决策系统构建

阐述了生物突发事件的重大危害性和建立生物突发事件辅助决策系统的主要目的和意义。从生物突发事件应急救援工作的实际需求出发，对辅助决策系统软件的设计进行了研究，应用Access数据库和VB6．0，编制出消防部队处置生物突发事件辅助决策系统，并对该软件的相关功能进行了必要的说明。     

基于情景模型的重大突发事件人员应急疏散方法

针对重大突发事件人员应急疏散难题,提出了基于情景应对的应急决策方法.将重大突发事件相关关键属性表示为一系列情景,对情景进行定性与定量相结合的描述.以疏散时间作为决策收益的判断标准,引入交通流量算法并考虑安全距离,建立数学模型.通过计算机仿真应急疏散算例,求解决策的最优解,验证了方法的有效性.     

浅谈搞好民兵应急力量建设

省军区系统贯彻落实中央军委习主席"听党指挥、能打胜仗、作风优良"的强军战略思想,非常重要的一点就是要大力加强民兵应急力量建设,使其成为应对处置突发事件、维护社会安全稳定的重要力量。为此,一是要建立健全军地指挥协调机制。建立军警民联合指挥机构,吸纳军队、武警、公安、政府应急办等相关单位参加,对应急力量实行统一组织、同步决策、统     

改革应急机动作战部队形势战备教育

应急机动作战部队形势战备教育改革,是适应应急机动作战部队建设的必然要求。我军的应急机动作战部队,是在多极、多事、多变的国际态势中建立的,是军委的一项战略性决策。就其“应急”的使命而言,这支部队是应付局部战争和突发事件的突击力量,是直接显示军威、国威,...     

论口岸突发事件应急处置措施的扩张性

国家对外开放口岸容易发生各种各样的突发事件。边检机关在处置口岸突发事件时,应急处置措施的作用对象、使用强度、持续时间、法律依据等方面相对于常规状态都发生了明显扩张。论述了口岸突发事件应急处置措施的扩张性,分析口岸突发事件应急处置措施扩张的现实基础,总结口岸突发事件应急处置措施扩张的内容,以利于执法部门正确行使应急处置措施。     

提高军队处置应急突发事件能力研究

文章首先根据军队处置应急突发事件的任务，具体分析了军队处置应急突发事件的行动特点，详细地阐明了军队处置应急突发事件的原则方法，提出了军队着力要解决应急突发事件的几个重要问题，分析了军队处置应急突发事件的能力。     

谈国民经济动员的应急功能

国民经济动员作为国家安全机制的重要组成部分，具有应对突发事件的功能。国民经济动员应急功能主要体现为保障应急与民生的能力、维护经济稳定的能力、公共沟通与动员的协调能力。为实现国民经济动员的应急功能，必须理顺机制，将经济动员办公室纳入政府应急体系；明确职责，发挥经济动员办公室应急功能优势；拓展功能，提高国民经济动员应对突发事件的专业性。     

国外应急物流军民一体化建设的四大措施

<正>应急物流是指以提供突发性自然灾害、突发性公共卫生事件等突发性事件所需应急物资为目的,以追求时间效益最大化和灾害损失最小化为目标的一种特殊的物流活动,主要表现为在突发战争、自然灾害、突发事件等三种紧急状态下的应急物流活动。当面对突发事件时,应急物流系统与组织通过快速识别和动态地确定危机级别,对应急物资调配、人员救助等活动进行     

非常规突发事件中军民一体的指挥体系研究

军队是我国处理突发事件的主力军。在处理突发事件中，需要构建军民一体的指挥体系。文章从突发事件区域态势感知系统、通信系统、指挥决策系统三个层面描述军民一体化指挥体系的构成。     

美国突发事件应急处置系统探析

自9·11事件之后，美国便在全国范围内采取措施以提高突发事件的预防、应急准备、响应、复原和缓解能力。制定并执行美国紧急事件应急处置系统。介绍该系统的主要组成，以便为我国应急处置建设提供借鉴。     

Optimal policies for a multi-product inventory system with negotiable lead times

The objective of this paper is to determine the optimum inventory policy for a multi-product periodic review dynamic inventory system. At the beginning of each period two decisions are made for each product. How much to “normal order” with a lead time of λ_n periods and how much to “emergency order” with a lead time of λ_e periods, where λe = λ_n - 1. It is assumed that the emergency ordering costs are higher than the normal ordering costs. The demands for each product in successive periods are assumed to form a sequence of independent identically distributed random variables with known densities. Demands for individual products within a period are assumed to be non-negative, but they need not be independent. Whenever demand exceeds inventory their difference is backlogged rather than lost. The ordering decisions are based on certain costs and two revenue functions. Namely, the procurement costs which are assumed to be linear for both methods of ordering, convex holding and penalty costs, concave salvage gain functions, and linear credit functions. There is a restriction on the total amount that can be emergency ordered for all products. The optimal ordering policy is determined for the one and N-period models.     

Value management of diagnostic equipment with cancelation,no‐show,and emergency patients

Magnetic resonance imaging and other multifunctional diagnostic facilities, which are considered as scarce resources of hospitals, typically provide services to patients with different medical needs. This article examines the admission policies during the appointment management of such facilities. We consider two categories of patients: regular patients who are scheduled in advance through an appointment system and emergency patients with randomly generated demands during the workday that must be served as soon as possible. According to the actual medical needs of patients, regular patients are segmented into multiple classes with different cancelation rates, no‐show probabilities, unit value contributions, and average service times. Management makes admission decisions on whether or not to accept a service request from a regular patient during the booking horizon to improve the overall value that could be generated during the workday. The decisions should be made by considering the cancelation and no‐show behavior of booked patients as well as the emergency patients that would have to be served because any overtime service would lead to higher costs. We studied the optimal admission decision using a continuous‐time discrete‐state dynamic programming model. Identifying an optimal policy for this discrete model is analytically intractable and numerically inefficient because the state is multidimensional and infinite. We propose to study a deterministic counterpart of the problem (i.e., the fluid control problem) and to develop a time‐based fluid policy that is shown to be asymptotically optimal for large‐scale problems. Furthermore, we propose to adopt a mixed fluid policy that is developed based on the information obtained from the fluid control problem. Numerical experiments demonstrate that this improved policy works effectively for small‐scale problems. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 63: 287–304, 2016     

发达国家突发公共事件应急管理对我国的启示

从应急管理理念、应急力量整合、应急法律制度和应对计划、社会参与、应急资源保障、人才培养体系、应急组织机构、联合应急方式等八个方面归纳总结了发达国家应急管理的共同特点,从突发公共事件应急组织体系、应急管理模式、整合信息资源、联合应急方式、应急保障、纲领性的公共突发事件应急管理基本法和应急计划等六个方面分析了我国突发公共事件应急管理方面存在的不足,并提出了改进的措施。     

长寿化工园区应急救援体系建设方案

随着重庆市长寿化工园区的建立和发展，园区化学灾害事故的发生几率增加，完善园区化学灾害事故应急救援体系刻不容缓。目前，园区化学灾害事故应急救援力量分散于各部门、各企业，发展不平衡，协调统一的指挥工作机制尚未形成，难于协同作战，整体实力不足。以长寿化工园区应急救援体系建设方案为例，详细论述了长寿化工园区应急救援体系建设的现状及存在的问题，应急救援体系建设的目标和原则，以及应急救援体系运行管理体制和应急响应机制。     

试论应急管理体系的财政支撑

从2003年的“非典”开始，我国逐步建立起了一套应急管理体系，在南方冰雪灾害、汶川地震以及今年的玉树地震和南方水灾等抗震救灾工作中发挥作用并不断完善。财政支撑在应急管理体系中有着至关重要的作用。对目前我国应急财政管理现状进行分析，结合对外国应急管理体系先进做法的借鉴，提出了对建立健全应急财政支撑体系的政策建议。     

Lateral capacity exchange and its impact on capacity investment decisions

We study the problem of capacity exchange between two firms in anticipation of the mismatch between demand and capacity, and its impact on firm's capacity investment decisions. For given capacity investment levels of the two firms, we demonstrate how capacity price may be determined and how much capacity should be exchanged when either manufacturer acts as a Stackelberg leader in the capacity exchange game. By benchmarking against the centralized system, we show that a side payment may be used to coordinate the capacity exchange decisions. We then study the firms' capacity investment decisions using a biform game framework in which capacity investment decisions are made individually and exchange decisions are made as in a centralized system. We demonstrate the existence and uniqueness of the Nash equilibrium capacity investment levels and study the impact of firms' share of the capacity exchange surplus on their capacity investment levels.© 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

关于我国突发事件应急救援体系的思考

进入新世纪以来,如何构建我国突发事件应急救援体系,形成灵活、高效、统一的政府应急救援联动机制,是当前急需着手解决的问题,是积极应对各种突发公共事件、保障社会和谐安全的主要对策。从突发事件应急管理现状出发,剖析了当前应急救援体系建设中存在的问题,提出了增强我国突发事件应急救援能力建设的方法,探讨了整体推进应急救援体系建设的途径。     

灾害应急反应建模与仿真

为了满足多智能体应急反应仿真的需求,首先对构建多智能体应急反应仿真模拟框架的复杂性进行了分析,在此基础上提出并设计了组件式仿真模拟框架.采用本体(Ontology)建模、语义网模型及产生式规则推理等理论方法构建了仿真模拟框架的场景建模模块、人员Agent建模模块等组件.最后对依照上述研究内容所开发的原型系统进行了测试,对测试结果进行了分析,结果表明该框架能够有效满足多智能体应急反应仿真的建模需求.     

PDA在应急事故指挥中的应用研究

在分析当前部队应急事故指挥现状与PDA(Personal Digital Assistant)应用现状的基础上,提出集成EGIS,GPS,GPRS的PDA系统在应急事故指挥中的应用原型,用于解决应急事故指挥中移动困难的问题,加快应急事故指挥系统的响应速度,降低事故造成的损失.介绍了Windows CE与嵌入式开发、系统组成、工作原理及系统功能,为PDA在应急事故指挥中的应用提出一个可行性方案.