BP神经网络的潜艇系统可靠性分析

基于BP神经网络理论,提出分析某型潜艇的人-艇-环境系统可靠性的方法.综合考虑潜艇本身、环境条件和人为操作等因素,给出潜艇人-艇-环境系统可靠性分析的指标-可用度的公式;并利用BP神经网络理论以及已有的某型潜艇本身的可靠性数据进行建模.实验数据表明,该方法建模简单,对潜艇系统的可靠性分析及可靠性预测具有一定的现实意义.     

常规潜艇事故与安全性的统计分析

本文应用可靠性理论,对常规潜艇重大事故与安全性进行了统计分析,得出了潜般重大事故的分布规律是具有卜松事件流性质的指数分布律。运用该结论对常规潜艇重大事故潜在趋势作了预测,对常规潜舰航海安全性作了评价,对如何减少潜艇重大事故、提高潜艇安全性作了分析。此文对潜艇部队制订重大事故的预防对策,修改有关条令,保障潜艇的日常航海安全性具有实际意义;对潜艇设计者如何从技术装备上提高潜艇的安全性,保障潜艇的生命力也有一定的参考价值。     

鱼雷卡箍联接结构模糊可靠性优化设计

针对目前鱼雷卡箍联接结构设计主要采用静强度方法,尚缺乏科学性,将优化技术、可靠性理论和模糊数学有机结构,对鱼雷卡箍联接结构提出基于模糊可靠性的优化设计.以某型鱼雷卡箍联接结构为例,所得结果与常规优化结构进行比较表明,这种方法不但充分考虑了可靠性指标的要求,而且还考虑了有关设计参量所具有的随机性和模糊性,具有一定的理论先进性,对提高鱼雷结构设计水平有着重要意义.     

潜艇磁场外推的数学模型研究

应用磁体模拟理论,根据潜艇包络面上的磁场数据提出了潜艇磁场外推的数学模型,论述了该模型的数学原理、磁位函数计算方法及具体应用时有关参数的确定方法等,并对计算精度作了考核.结果表明:该模型精度较高,具有一定参考价值.     

基于潜艇指控系统的软件模块化研究

针对目前潜艇装备软件的现状,结合工程实践,运用软件模块化思想,提出了基于构件的潜艇指控系统软件开发模型和层次化的潜艇指控系统软件体系结构,并在此基础之上,对潜艇指控系统软件进行了模块化研究,给出了潜艇指控系统软件模块框架。实践表明,该设计方法实现了软件与其他系统的集成,提高了软件的质量与可靠性。     

潜艇上浮运动数值计算方法的研究与验证

预报潜艇上浮运动是探索研究潜艇上浮运动控制规律以及潜艇安全上浮的前提。就潜艇上浮运动的数值计算方法和计算流程进行了详细介绍,对数值计算方法中的湍流模型及离散格式等进行了优选。基于模型上浮试验结果,对数值计算的不确定度进行了分析且对数值计算结果进行了验证。证明了该数值计算的可靠性,并发现数值计算结果与试验结果很接近,验证了该数值计算方法的可行性,说明该数值计算方法和试验可为潜艇上浮运动的研究提供参考和借鉴。     

潜艇耐压船体结构选优设计及其重量重心计算程序PHODW

本文介绍了潜艇耐压船体结构选优设计及其重量重心计算的计算机程序PHODW,提供了一种在潜艇方案设计阶段利用微型计算机进行耐压船体结构选优设计的方法,并且将该程序对照计算的结果与实艇结构相比较,表明该程序能给出令人满意的结构设计结果,重量计算的误差在-5％左右。     

潜艇自航模系统可靠性优化设计

针对潜艇自航模系统可靠性设计问题,提出了有针对性的可靠性优化设计方法;在构建矩阵式任务剖面的基础上,应用多阶段任务系统可靠性建模理论建立系统可靠性模型并开展预计;根据FMEA分析结果提出技术改进措施,以体积、重量、成本为约束构建可靠性冗余优化模型并利用微粒群算法求解.案例证明了该优化设计的有效性及可行性.     

腐蚀损伤下船体总纵极限强度可靠性分析方法探讨

针对腐蚀损伤下船体结构安全性评估问题,基于实船腐蚀勘验数据,引入非概率可靠性评估理论,提出舰艇现时状态下船体结构总纵极限强度非概率可靠性分析方法,建立船体结构非概率可靠性分析模型。对某舰艇船体结构现时状态下的总纵极限强度可靠性及非概率可靠性分析方法在船体结构安全状态评估方面的应用性进行了分析。结果表明:非概率可靠性分析方法克服了过度依赖样本数据的缺陷,较确定性方法更贴近客观实际,在舰艇船体结构技术状态评估方面具有较好的应用前景。     

英国海军潜艇结构的设计思想和设计方法述评

本文对英国海军关于潜艇耐压艇体的结构设计思想和设计方法以及在初步设计阶段适于手算的强度计算公式进行综述。在本文的后部分,作者对上述内容进行了评论。     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.     

Helping hands: external support for the KNU insurgency in Burma

This article analyses to what extent the Burmese KNU insurgency made use of external support from states, refugees, and diasporas. Based on extensive fieldwork it is concluded that support from neighbouring states and refugees has for years kept the Karen rebellion alive. Western countries perceived forms of resistance to the illegitimate Burmese regime as just and have therefore played a crucial role in the continuation of conflict in Karen State. It is important that policymakers and donors as well as executing organizations continue to reflect critically on the way they exercise their work.     

Reviews

Douglas S. Derrer, We Are All the Target: A Handbook of Terrorism Avoidance and Hostage Survival. Annapolis, MD: US Naval Institute Press, 1992. Pp. x+135, notes, index. $14.95. ISBN 01–55750–150–5

Ian Knight, Zulu: Isandlwana and Rorke's Drift, 22–23 January 1879. London: Windrow & Greene, 1992. Pp.136, 150 illus., incl 8 colour plates, maps, biblio. £35. ISBN 1–872004–23–7

Ian Knight, By the Orders of the Great White Queen: Campaigning in Zululand through the Eyes of the British Soldiers, 1879. London: Greenhill Books and Novato: Presidio Press, 1992. Pp. 272, 17 illus., 1 map. £18.95. ISBN 1–85367–122–3

Manfried Rauchensteiner and Erwin A. Schmidl (eds.), Formen des Krieges: vom Mittelalter zum ‘Low‐intensity’ Conflict’. Graz : Verlag Styria, 1991. Pp.208. DM35. ISBN 3–22–12139–7

Harold J. Kearsley, Maritime Power and the Twenty‐First Century. Dartmouth: Dartmouth Publishing Company, Limited, 1992. Pp.xv + 203, 13 diagrams, index. £32.50. ISBN 1–85521–288–9     

基于GTST-DMLD-ESD的装备RMS建模仿真

装备的RMS是装备的重要设计参数,是影响战备完好和保障能力的关键因素.引入GTST-DMLD作为主要建模工具,建立起装备系统的RMS描述模型,以ESD为补充和扩展,对维修过程进行建模.并以GTST-DMLD-ESD模型作为装备RMS仿真的核心,对装备RMS仿真模型的总体框架进行了研究,并对各模块进行了较为详细的探讨.     

Cyber sheiks and grassroots jihadis: the war in Syria and the devolution of the Bosnian Salafi communities

ABSTRACT

What was the scope of the Bosnian jihadi participation in the war in Syria? Did the Bosnian volunteers tend to join one particular faction? Why did the Bosnian youngsters decide to join the holy war in the Levant? Was this an organized and hierarchical process or was this a grassroots movement? Last, were all the Salafis in Bosnia supportive of this dynamic or did this process cause internal frictions? These are some of the questions that this research will try to answer.