装备停产阶段备件末次采购量确定方法

针对装备停产后面临的备件末次采购问题,提出装备停产后续保障时间确定方法,在此基础上,以装备停产备件保障成本为约束,建立以装备完好率最大为目标的备件末次采购量确定模型,采用边际效能分析法对模型进行求解,依据单位价格备件对装备完好率的贡献度得出备件末次采购方案。结合算例分析探讨模型的有效性,结果表明该方法能够为备件保障人员合理规划经费预算并制定备件末次采购计划提供决策依据。     

有限维修能力下多级保障系统装备时变可用度评估及保障方案优化

备件库存和站点维修能力是影响备件维修周转的重要因素，制约装备使用效果。针对备件需求随任务阶段动态变化的装备保障方案评估和优化问题，考虑站点维修能力对备件维修过程的影响，结合METRIC建模方法和动态排队理论，建立了有限维修能力下多级保障系统装备时变可用度评估模型。在评估模型基础之上，以保障费用为优化目标，装备可用度为约束条件，建立了任务期内多级保障系统保障方案优化模型。以任务期内的最低可用度所对应的备件短缺数为观测值，分析了各项资源的边际效益值，采用边际优化算法对各项资源进行优化计算。算例分析表明，评估模型能够计算多级保障系统任务期内各阶段装备可用度；保障方案优化模型和方法能够得到各项保障资源的优化配置方案。提出的模型和优化方法能够为装备保障人员制定合理的保障方案提供决策支持。     

考虑维修因素的随舰备件配备方案研究

针对随舰备件配置问题,首先建立了考虑维修时间的随舰备件保障概率模型与使用可用度模型,研究了部件的使用可用度与备件保障概率之间的关系,并给出了部件寿命服从指数分布、维修时间为定长时的备件保障概率解析表达式;然后,以串联系统为对象,建立了基于使用可用度的系统备件配置优化模型,给出了随舰备件配置优化算法及流程;最后,定量分析了维修时间对装备使用可用度和备件保障概率的影响程度,验证了随舰备件配备方案的制定方法是合理可行的。     

有限维修能力下多级保障系统装备时变可用度评估及保障方案优化

备件库存和站点维修能力是影响备件维修周转的重要因素,制约着装备的使用效果。针对备件需求随任务阶段动态变化时装备保障方案的评估和优化问题,考虑站点维修能力对备件维修过程的影响,结合METRIC建模方法和动态排队理论,建立了有限维修能力下多级保障系统装备时变可用度评估模型。在评估模型基础之上,以保障费用为优化目标、装备可用度为约束条件,建立任务期内多级保障系统保障方案优化模型。以任务期内的最低可用度所对应的备件短缺数为观测值,分析各项资源的边际效益值,采用边际优化算法对各项资源进行优化计算。算例分析表明,评估模型能够计算多级保障系统任务期内各阶段装备可用度;保障方案优化模型和方法能够得到各项保障资源的优化配置方案。提出的模型和优化方法能够为装备保障人员制订合理的保障方案提供决策支持。     

单项法和系统法的备件利用率影响因素分析与比较

针对保障方案制定阶段无备件消耗数据的实际情况,依据数量和费用定义了单项和系统的备件利用率,给出了单项法和系统法两种常用备件保障方案制定方法的备件利用率预计方法。通过分析和对比单项和系统法的备件利用率影响因素,指出随着质量和可靠性的提高,备件利用率呈下降趋势。制定长期备件供应规划、延长保障周期、施行集中存储、采用系统法制定保障方案等措施,能有效提高保障方案的备件利用率。     

装备使用阶段后续备件采购模型Π:可修复件

针对装备使用阶段可修复件的采购优化问题,引入近似拉普拉斯需求概率分布代替正态分布,建立了采购间隔期内的备件短缺函数。根据供应链系统库存控制论,建立了可修备件的采购模型。通过对可修件周转渠道的分析,对采购短缺指标进行了修订,并给出了最优采购点和采购量的计算方法。对两种需求分布下的算例结果进行了对比和分析,结果表明:该模型得到的结果鲁棒性强、偏差小,优化过程简单,为故障率高、消耗量低的可修件采购方案的确定提供了一种新的思路。     

鱼雷装备备件隶属关系的两级库存系统配置优化研究

备件库存系统配置优化是提高武器装备的战备完好性和降低寿命周期费用的重要途径,但在装备组成结构中,由于部件之间存在一定的隶属关系,并不是所有的项目都能够进行串件。针对现有两级库存系统备件配置优化研究的不完善之处,根据装备结构层次特点,通过分析鱼雷装备LRU和SRU备件两级库存系统,提出了备件初始配置方案下的备件库存缺货数模型,并在此基础上建立了基于备件隶属关系的两级库存系统配置优化模型。该模型以鱼雷装备使用度和库存费用为优化目标,通过优化备件库存配置结构,生成较好的备件库存配置方案,从而节约备件配置费用,避免造成资源浪费。     

装备使用阶段后续备件采购模型Ⅱ:可修复件

针对装备使用阶段可修复件的采购优化问题,引入近似拉普拉斯需求概率分布代替正态分布,建立了采购间隔期内的备件短缺函数。根据供应链系统库存控制论,建立了可修备件的采购模型。通过对可修件周转渠道的分析,对采购短缺指标进行了修订,并给出了最优采购点和采购量的计算方法。对两种需求分布下的算例结果进行了对比和分析,结果表明:该模型得到的结果鲁棒性强、偏差小,优化过程简单,为故障率高、消耗量低的可修件采购方案的确定提供了一种新的思路。     

舰船装备限寿备件满足率评估模型

限寿备件(有寿件)作为舰船装备备件的重要组成部分,如何科学确定有寿件需求量,合理制定有寿件的配置方案,成为亟待解决的重要问题。针对目前备件满足率只有针对消耗件、贵重件以及不可修备件等备件的处理方法的问题,研究了部件故障率服从指数分布的有寿件在保障期内的更换规律,确定了有寿件在保障期内的需求数量,并给出了故障率服从指数分布有寿件满足率的处理方案,为合理制定有寿件保障方案提供了决策依据。     

基于两级库存的装备备件配置优化模型

备件库存配置优化是提高装备战备完好性、降低装备寿命周期费用的重要途径。分析了基地级仓储中心、基层级仓库两级装备现场可更换单元(Line-Replacement Unit,LRU)库存系统,提出了备件初始配置方案下库存缺货模型,建立了基于备件隶属关系的两级库存系统配置优化模型。该模型以装备可用度和库存费用为优化目标,通过优化备件库存配置结构,形成合理的备件库存配置方案,从而降低备件配置费用,避免资源浪费。     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.     

Helping hands: external support for the KNU insurgency in Burma

This article analyses to what extent the Burmese KNU insurgency made use of external support from states, refugees, and diasporas. Based on extensive fieldwork it is concluded that support from neighbouring states and refugees has for years kept the Karen rebellion alive. Western countries perceived forms of resistance to the illegitimate Burmese regime as just and have therefore played a crucial role in the continuation of conflict in Karen State. It is important that policymakers and donors as well as executing organizations continue to reflect critically on the way they exercise their work.     

基于GTST-DMLD-ESD的装备RMS建模仿真

装备的RMS是装备的重要设计参数,是影响战备完好和保障能力的关键因素.引入GTST-DMLD作为主要建模工具,建立起装备系统的RMS描述模型,以ESD为补充和扩展,对维修过程进行建模.并以GTST-DMLD-ESD模型作为装备RMS仿真的核心,对装备RMS仿真模型的总体框架进行了研究,并对各模块进行了较为详细的探讨.     

Cyber sheiks and grassroots jihadis: the war in Syria and the devolution of the Bosnian Salafi communities

ABSTRACT

What was the scope of the Bosnian jihadi participation in the war in Syria? Did the Bosnian volunteers tend to join one particular faction? Why did the Bosnian youngsters decide to join the holy war in the Levant? Was this an organized and hierarchical process or was this a grassroots movement? Last, were all the Salafis in Bosnia supportive of this dynamic or did this process cause internal frictions? These are some of the questions that this research will try to answer.     

The UK,interrogation and Iraq, 2003–2008

The UK’s interrogation operations during the conflict in Iraq (2003–2008) are often portrayed by the media as involving significant amounts of mistreatment. This article demonstrates that these practices are not necessarily representative of the UK’s interrogation operations across this conflict. In doing so it contributes to the limited literature on the practice of interrogation and on the UK’s combat operations in Iraq. The UK’s interrogation capability, and therefore its intelligence-gathering capability, is shown to have rested primarily with the military’s Joint Forward Interrogation Team (JFIT). The JFIT suffered from limitations to the number, training and experience of its interrogators and interpreters. It is argued that maintaining a permanent, higher level of preparedness for interrogation by the British armed forces is desirable.     

Remembering and forgetting Mirambo: Histories of war in modern Africa

ABSTRACT

While the study of organised violence is considered essential to understanding the history of the West, and accordingly imbued with various layers of meaning and remembrance, war is widely regarded as inimical to the modern nation in Africa and stable development more broadly. Using examples drawn from primarily from East Africa, this paper considers the ways in which warfare in the deeper (‘precolonial’) past has been framed and envisioned in recent decades, in particular by governments whose own roots lie in revolutionary armed struggle and who began life as guerrilla movements. While in some cases particular elements of the deeper past were indeed mobilised in pursuit of contemporary political goals, in many other scenarios histories of precolonial violence were beheld as problematic and unworthy of remembrance. This paper highlights the paradox and ambiguity which has attended the memory of key aspects of Africa’s deeper past.