Sample sizes for β-expectation tolerance limits which control both tails of the normal distribution

Sample sizes for tolerance limits are given on a normal distribution. β-Expectation tolerance intervals are defined and constructed to control the proportion in each tail of the normal distribution. We also require with a high probability that the proportion in each tail is close to its corresponding expected coverage. Under these conditions. we dctcrniine a minimum sample size and its accompanying tolerance limits. Graphs of minimum sample sizes for the tolerance limits are provided. The computation for minimum samplc sizes is based on the bivariate noncentral t distribution. Examples are given to illustrate the use of the graphs.     

超算环境科学工作流应用的容错

超算环境中科学工作流技术广泛应用于科学研究和工程仿真领域。复杂多物理过程数值模拟、多阶段数据处理等应用往往需要使用多种应用软件相互协作,构建业务流程自动执行来提升工作效率。然而在超算环境中执行科学工作流应用面临着资源失效、任务配置错误等异常情况,造成工作流执行中断,严重影响完成效率,故容错功能对超算工作流应用的稳定持续运行有重要意义。介绍了科学工作流的容错设计分类,并对典型工作流系统的容错设计进行分析评述;提出了基于决策树的事件-条件-动作容错模型,设计了非侵入式可扩展的容错架构,并针对自主研发的部署在超算环境下的科学工作流应用平台HSWAP,实现了运行时可配置的容错策略。在实际的工程仿真任务中,基于所提出模型和架构实现的容错机制为提高工作流执行效率发挥了重要作用。     

On the reliability,availability and bayes confidence intervals for multicomponent systems

The problem of computing reliability and availability and their associated confidence limits for multi-component systems has appeared often in the literature. This problem arises where some or all of the component reliabilities and availabilities are statistical estimates (random variables) from test and other data. The problem of computing confidence limits has generally been considered difficult and treated only on a case-by-case basis. This paper deals with Bayes confidence limits on reliability and availability for a more general class of systems than previously considered including, as special cases, series-parallel and standby systems applications. The posterior distributions obtained are exact in theory and their numerical evaluation is limited only by computing resources, data representation and round-off in calculations. This paper collects and generalizes previous results of the authors and others. The methods presented in this paper apply both to reliability and availability analysis. The conceptual development requires only that system reliability or availability be probabilities defined in terms acceptable for a particular application. The emphasis is on Bayes Analysis and the determination of the posterior distribution functions. Having these, the calculation of point estimates and confidence limits is routine. This paper includes several examples of estimating system reliability and confidence limits based on observed component test data. Also included is an example of the numerical procedure for computing Bayes confidence limits for the reliability of a system consisting of N failure independent components connected in series. Both an exact and a new approximate numerical procedure for computing point and interval estimates of reliability are presented. A comparison is made of the results obtained from the two procedures. It is shown that the approximation is entirely sufficient for most reliability engineering analysis.     

An F approximation for two-parameter weibull and log-normal tolerance bounds based on possibly censored data

An approximation suggested in Mann, Schafer and Singpurwalla [18] for obtaining small-sample tolerance bounds based on possibly censored two-parameter Weibull and lognormal samples is investigated. The tolerance bounds obtained are those that effectively make most efficient use of sample data. Values based on the approximation are compared with some available exact values and shown to be in surprisingly good agreement, even in certain cases in which sample sizes are very small or censoring is extensive. Ranges over which error in the approximation is less than about 1 or 2 percent are determined. The investigation of the precision of the approximation extends results of Lawless [8], who considered large-sample maximum-likelihood estimates of parameters as the basis for approximate 95 percent Weibull tolerance bounds obtained by the general approach described in [18]. For Weibull (or extreme-value) data the approximation is particularly useful when sample sizes are moderately large (more than 25), but not large enough (well over 100 for severely censored data) for asymptotic normality of estimators to apply. For such cases simplified efficient linear estimates or maximum-likelihood estimates may be used to obtain the approximate tolerance bounds. For lognormal censored data, best linear unbiased estimates may be used, or any efficient unbiased estimators for which variances and covariances are known as functions of the square of the distribution variance.     

Lower confidence limits for the impact probability within a circle in the normal case

Lower confidence limits are derived for the impact probability within a circle of fixed radius. The bivariate normal distribution with zero means, unequal variances, and zero correlation is the probability model for impacts. A new representation of the impact probability function is offered. This presentation is valid also for the dependent case, where the eigenvalues of the covariance matrix replace the variances. When the ratio of variances is known the lower confidence limits are uniformly most accurate (UMA). A few alternative approaches are compared by simulation when the ratio of variances is unknown.     

Testing goodness of fit to the increasing failure rate family

One branch of the reliability literature is concerned with devising statistical procedures with various nonparametric “restricted family” model assumptions because of the potential improved operating characteristics of such procedures over totally nonparametric ones. In the single-sample problem with unknown increasing failure rate (IFR) distribution F, (1) maximum-likelihood estimators of F have been calculated, (2) upper or lower tolerance limits for F have been determined, and (3) tests of the null hypothesis that F is exponential have been constructed. Barlow and Campo proposed graphical methods for assessing goodness of fit to the IFR model when the validity of this assumption is unknown. This article proposes several analytic tests of the IFR null hypothesis based on the maximum distance and area between the cumulative hazard function and its greatest convex minorant (GCM), and the maximum distance and area between the total time on test statistic and its GCM. A table of critical points is provided to implement a specific test having good overall power properties.     

高速精密混合陶瓷轴承套圈加工误差产生原因及工艺改进方法

分析了高速精密混合陶瓷轴承套圈磨削及超精加工过程中误差产生的原因及对后续工序的影响,针对不同工序中误差产生的原因,提出了减小加工误差的工艺改进措施。在磨削加工阶段,引入了双端面磨削加工方法;建立了外圆无心磨削工件中心最佳高度计算模型;根据无心磨削复映规律,提出了减小复映误差的具体措施,并验证了其合理性。在超精加工阶段,提出了采用分阶段选取不同参数的方法来提高超精加工的精度。     

基于网格的分布式仿真系统容错机制

针对分布式仿真的需求,在网格的基础上构建了通用的分布式仿真容错系统。该系统由三部分组成:仿真资源状态监控模块、数据保存模块及错误恢复模块。其中仿真资源状态监控基于网格的MDS实现;数据保存(包括进程空间、进程间交互关系的保存)及错误恢复基于检查点机制在用户空间实现。就所增加的容错机制跟仿真系统原有功能模块的关系进行了分析。最后,基于网格及上述容错模块设计并实现了一个C/S模式的容错代理,用来实现仿真系统的自动容错。     

Kurtosis correction method for X̄ and R control charts for long‐tailed symmetrical distributions

This paper proposes a kurtosis correction (KC) method for constructing the X? and R control charts for symmetrical long‐tailed (leptokurtic) distributions. The control charts are similar to the Shewhart control charts and are very easy to use. The control limits are derived based on the degree of kurtosis estimated from the actual (subgroup) data. It is assumed that the underlying quality characteristic is symmetrically distributed and no other distributional and/or parameter assumptions are made. The control chart constants are tabulated and the performance of these charts is compared with that of the Shewhart control charts. For the case of the logistic distribution, the exact control limits are derived and are compared with the KC method and the Shewhart method. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

Adaptive forecasting of the size of a work force subject to random withdrawals

Adaptive forecasting procedures are developed for predicting the size of a work force which is subject to random withdrawals. The procedures are illustrated using Marine Corps data in which four stages of service for incoming cohorts are distinguished. Using these data, three forecasting procedures—conditional maximum likelihood estimation of prediction intervals; tolerance intervals; and Bayes prediction intervals—are compared.     

星载寄生式SAR系统干涉信号模型与相对高程测量性能分析

以星载寄生式SAR系统成像信号模型为基础,给出了该系统的干涉模型,分析了其特点和限制条件,提出了距离向有效基线和方位向有效基线的新概念。以Cartwheel和Pendulum两种编队构形为实例,分析了寄生式SAR系统有效基线的限制和相对高程测量的性能,结果表明:编队形式固有的基线耦合给性能造成不利影响,在这方面Pendulum编队优于Cartwheel编队构形;距离向和方位向预滤波处理可提高图像对的相关性,但并不能完全去除几何去相关对性能的影响。     

Weibull tolerance intervals associated with moderate to small survival proportions for use in a new formulation of lanchester combat theory

Given herein is an easily implemented method for obtaining, from complete or censored data, approximate tolerance intervals associated with the upper tail of a Weibull distribution. These approximate intervals are based on point estimators that make essentially most efficient use of sample data. They agree extremely well with exact intervals (obtained by Monte Carlo simulation procedures) for sample sizes of about 10 or larger when specified survival proportions are sufficiently small. Ranges over which the error in the approximation is within 2 percent are determined. The motivation for investigation of the methodology for obtaining the approximate tolerance intervals was provided by the new formulation of Lanchester Combat Theory by Grubbs and Shuford [3], which suggests a Weibull assumption for time-to-incapacitation of key targets. With the procedures investigated herein, one can use (censored) data from battle simulations to obtain confidence intervals on battle times associated with given low survivor proportions of key targets belonging to either specified side in a future battle. It is also possible to calculate confidence intervals on a survival proportion of key targets corresponding to a given battle duration time.     

面向验证的启发技术设计

采用有效的人工智能技术提高验证效率正成为解决验证复杂性的手段之一。本文针对STG（State Transition Graph）中状态枚举数据量大的问题,提出隐含遍历的状态映射策略。并根据状态存储和电路结构特征,重点研究了HASH表状态冲突处理、函数域限定、函数不相交分解和混合搜索等启发技术策略。     

Revenue management with aircraft reassignment flexibility

A well‐studied problem in airline revenue management is the optimal allocation of seat inventory among different fare‐classes, given a capacity for the flight and a demand distribution for each class. In practice, capacity on a flight does not have to be fixed; airlines can exercise some flexibility on the supply side by swapping aircraft of different capacities between flights as partial booking information is gathered. This provides the airline with the capability to more effectively match their supply and demand. In this paper, we study the seat inventory control problem considering the aircraft swapping option. For theoretical and practical purposes, we restrict our attention to the class of booking limit policies. Our analytical results demonstrate that booking limits considering the swapping option can be considerably different from those under fixed capacity. We also show that principles on the relationship between the optimal booking limits and demand characteristics (size and risk) developed for the fixed‐capacity problem no longer hold when swapping is an option. We develop new principles and insights on how demand characteristics affect the optimal booking limits under the swapping possibility. We also develop an easy to implement heuristic for determining the booking limits under the swapping option and show, through a numerical study, that the heuristic generates revenues close to those under the optimal booking limits. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

面向容侵的秘密共享系统的设计

针对Intemet服务器间安全连接所使用的会话密钥面临的威胁,利用秘密共享理论,结合Shamir有限域Zp中的多项式方程,提出面向容侵的(w,t)丁限设计方案.此方案是将会话密钥K分成W个子密钥,并秘密存储在不同的共享服务器中,若恢复会话密钥K,只需W个子密钥中的t个子密钥.而入侵者得到t个子密钥要比得到一个会话密钥更难,因此系统具有一定容侵功能,以保证会话密钥的安全.从结构、协议工作和特点等方面加以描述,并对安全性作了分析.初步建立了基于(w,t)秘密共享理论的网络容侵模型.     

操纵手考核成果的操纵手模型参数辨识

以半自动跟踪的人机系统为研究对象,从工程实际中提取了描述操纵手操控水平的指标集:静态灵敏度、平均超差度及平均超差频率指标,并依据这些指标的考核结果,构建了一种操纵手数学模型的辨识方法.最后由靶场试验数据辨识了相应的模型参数,从而验证了该方法的可行性.     

SN-PDB 中一种先进的结点容错法

本文简单介绍了无共享并行数据库（ＳＮ－ＰＤＢ）中几种常见的结点容错方法,重点叙述了链式分布法,给出了此方法的负载平衡算法。     

Monitoring poisson count data with probability control limits when sample sizes are time varying

This article considers the problem of monitoring Poisson count data when sample sizes are time varying without assuming a priori knowledge of sample sizes. Traditional control charts, whose control limits are often determined before the control charts are activated, are constructed based on perfect knowledge of sample sizes. In practice, however, future sample sizes are often unknown. Making an inappropriate assumption of the distribution function could lead to unexpected performance of the control charts, for example, excessive false alarms in the early runs of the control charts, which would in turn hurt an operator's confidence in valid alarms. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of probability control limits, which are determined based on the realization of sample sizes online. The conditional probability that the charting statistic exceeds the control limit at present given that there has not been a single alarm before can be guaranteed to meet a specified false alarm rate. Simulation studies show that our proposed control chart is able to deliver satisfactory run length performance for any time‐varying sample sizes. The idea presented in this article can be applied to any effective control charts such as the exponentially weighted moving average or cumulative sum chart. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 60: 625–636, 2013     

A guarantee rate optimization model for wastewater treatment system design under uncertainty

We consider a design problem for wastewater treatment systems that considers uncertainty in pollutant concentration levels at water sources. The goal is to optimize the selection of treatment technologies and pipeline connections, so that treated wastewater can achieve specified effluents discharge limits as well as possible. We propose a new two-stage model to optimize a set of guarantee levels, that is, the maximum concentration level of source pollutants for which treated wastewater can be compliant with discharge limits. In the first stage, treatment technologies and pipeline connections are selected. In the second stage, when pollutant concentration levels are revealed, wastewater distribution and mixing are determined. A key attractiveness of the proposed guarantee rate optimization model is that it can be simplified into a single-stage mixed-integer linear program. In our numerical experiments based on real-world pollutants data, the guarantee rate model demonstrates its advantages in terms of computational efficiency, scalability and solution quality, compared with the standard probability maximization model. Finally, the methodology proposed in this paper can also be applied to other two-stage problems under uncertainty with similar uncertainty characteristics.     

矿区生态型和非矿区生态型蜈蚣草对铅胁迫的生理响应

探讨不同矿区生态型蜈蚣草对铅的耐性及其耐铅机理,为进一步研究蜈蚣草植物修复射击场土壤的铅污染提供理论依据。在水培铅胁迫的环境条件,对矿区生态型和非矿区生态型蜈蚣草生长过程中的生物量、色素含量、MDA质量摩尔浓度和CAT,POD,SOD活性等进行了研究。研究发现,营养液中铅的加入抑制了蜈蚣草的生长,降低了羽叶中的色素含量,大幅度提高了MDA质量摩尔浓度和CAT,POD,SOD活性。结果表明,蜈蚣草对铅有一定的耐性,并且矿区生态型蜈蚣草的耐性明显高于非矿区生态型。主要表现为矿区生态型蜈蚣草的抗氧化酶活性高于非矿区生态型,生物量和色素含量受铅胁迫影响的程度相对较小。当铅质量浓度达到300 mg/L,铅胁迫15 d后,非矿区生态型蜈蚣草抗氧化酶系统紊乱,植株接近枯死状态,而矿区生态型蜈蚣草的耐性表现相对较好。