第27届国际军事历史大会综述

２００１年８月１９日至２５日,由国际军事历史委员会和希腊军事历史委员会共同主办的第２７届国际军事历史大会,在希腊首都雅典召开。大会的主题是“地缘政治与军事冲突”。出席大会的代表计１５５名,分别来自３５个国家。由军事科学院军事历史研究部萧裕声副部长率领的中国军事历史代表团一行４人出席了此次大会,萧裕声副部长在会上作了题为“地缘关系：中国和平与发展的战略选择”的重要发言,受到与会代表的好评。按照大会的日程,７天中共有来自２９个国家的４７名代表作了大会发言。大会分为５个专题、１０次会议对“地缘政治与军…     

加强防务合作 促进中巴友好关系 中国国家展团亮相第九届巴基斯坦防务展

正习近平主席曾用"比山高、比海深、比蜜甜"形容中巴两国友谊。随着中巴经济走廊的稳步推进和中巴命运共同体的建设,中巴友好关系也成为国家间合作的典范之一。一直以来,中巴防务领域的合作,为巴基斯坦确保稳定局势、促进国内经济发展和人民生活水平提高,起到了非常重要的作用。     

从国家政体的演进看周代军礼的兴衰

西周、春秋军事制度与军事文化是以井田制、分封制和宗法制为基础,反映了分封制国家政体下的血缘政治关系;而战国军事制度与军事文化是以战国变法运动以后新的政治、经济制度为基础,反映了郡县制国家政体下的地缘政治关系。周代军礼兴衰的历史,是周代从血缘政治向地缘政治演进的一个缩影。     

2010年全球武器装备发展盘点

战略层面：新概念,新威慑 2010年,世界总体防务开支依然吃紧,军队和主要军工企业仍有＂勒紧裤带＂的感受。同时世界地缘政治格局和力量对比继续演变,战争样式和军事能力破旧立新。这给武器装备的发展增加了诸多变数。     

大国关系不断调整变化 各种力量交汇错综复杂 中俄建立新型的战略协作伙伴关系

经过90年代初期的调整,中国与俄罗斯两国关系以1996年4月叶利钦访华并签定相关协议为标志,进入了战略协作伙伴关系的新阶段。中、俄两国协作伙伴关系的建立,以及双方在政治、经济、外交、军事等方面的合作,不仅给两国带来了直接的利益,而且对整个世界格局的发展将产生重要的影响。中俄关系的发展是由两国国家利益为核心的地缘政治、经济发展、地区安全以及在国际格局中所处的战略态势等因素决定的。第一,两国在地缘政治上有着共同的利益。中俄两国的共同边界长达4300多公里,双方都需要一个和平稳定的周边环境,以致力于各自的经济建设;第二,两国在国     

面向未来,谋划跨世纪发展的国防和军队建设

新的历史时期 ,以江泽民为核心的党的第三代领导集体创造性地发展了邓小平新时期国防和军队建设思想 :在国际格局转换和世界军事变革面前 ,军队要担当起维护国家主权和安全的历史责任 ;国防建设要与国家经济建设相协调实现两大战略任务的统一 ;坚持改革创新 ,推进军事斗争准备和军队发展模式的“两个根本性转变” ;按照“政治合格 ,军事过硬 ,作风优良 ,纪律严明 ,保障有力”的五句话总要求 ,实现军队“三化”建设的总目标     

国防工业布局制约因素的分析

一定的国防工业布局,总是特定客观条件的产物。研究国防工业布局的制约因素,对于认识我国国防工业布局的历史和现状,寻求完善它的途径,都具有非常重要的意义。国防工业的制约因素大体可划分为三个方面:国家的政治军事条件、经济技术条件和自然地理条件。下面分别探讨各因素对国防工业布局的影响。一、国家的政治军事条件对国防工业布局的影响国家的政治军事条件包括国家的国际环     

太空合作对缓解太空冲突的影响研究

通过太空合作缓解太空冲突对国家太空安全具有重要意义。在梳理美苏(俄)太空冲突和太空合作历史进程的基础上,结合太空合作现状阐述技术、政治和军事对太空冲突和太空合作的影响;从技术和政治角度分析协商、配合、互助和融合4种现有太空合作模式在太空冲突中的局限性;提出更加有利于缓解太空冲突的"共享"模式。     

“多极”外交政策下的俄罗斯对印度军售现状分析与前景

俄印是传统友好国家,俄罗斯也是印度最大的武器和军事装备供应国。在俄奉行"多极"外交政策的背景下,同时印度作为世界最大的武器和军事装备进口国,其军火市场受到多方觊觎,俄对印军售也面临着严峻的挑战。俄专家认为,"俄中印"战略大三角的构想应做出调整,且"多极"外交政策无助于加强俄罗斯与印度关系。文章分析和预测了俄对印的军售现状和前景。俄印这两个传统与新兴大国间的军事技术乃至政治-军事合作,已经和继续对亚太地区乃至全球政治格局施加重大影响。     

日本在东印度在南——评日印结成海上战略伙伴

2001年春夏以来,日本、印度两国政治及军事首脑互访频频,包括军事网络人才交流在内的军事交往活动更引人注目,这在事实上改变了1998年印度核试事件后,两国的冷淡关系。再回溯过去的2000年,日、印两国在军事领域中的合作始终处于积极发展的阶段,其中双方在南中国海及东印度洋的多次联合演习便是突出的表现。日印海上“伙伴关系”的确立发生在东亚、南亚如今这样多事之秋的时刻,不得不使人做更深层的解读,如其中最为突出的一点,便是在地缘上围堵中国、围堵中国海上力量延伸的     

CHINA AND THE U.S. BEYOND THE KOREAN PENINSULA

China-U.S. cooperation over the most difficult security problem in Northeast Asia—the North Korean nuclear issue—in essence projects its bigger power game amid the tectonic shifts of Asian geopolitics. The nuclear issue affords a test case to gauge the future posture of China and the United States in East Asia and their partnership in that conflict-prone region. Approaches to resolving this issue must take into account the geopolitical realignment of Asia, Washington's reorientation of relations with its Asian allies, and China's rise as an influential regional player and the subsequent regional response. However, the long-standing mistrust between China and the United States is contributing to a lack of substantial progress in Korean nonproliferation efforts. The declared nuclear test by Pyongyang further put the denuclearization cooperation between China and the Unites States on the line. China-U.S. cooperation in denuclearizing Pyongyang may either produce lasting stability for the region or create ‘‘collateral damage,’’ with the North Korean issue paling in comparison.     

韩日签订《军事情报保护协定》的影响分析

在美国大力推动下,韩日政府于2016年11月签署《军事情报保护协定》。本文对韩日签署《军事情报保护协定》的背景和过程进行了梳理,指出了韩日政府关于该协定所存在的主要分歧,分析了该协定签署对东北亚乃至亚太地缘政治安全形势产生的深远影响。     

Multilateral defense cooperation in the Indo-Asia-Pacific region: Tentative steps toward a regional NATO?

Some U.S. military leaders have asserted that the United States, Japan, Australia, and India and the Republic of Korea are developing multilateral defense cooperation to deter aggression and uphold norms much like North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has in Europe. Frequent military exercises and China’s threats to freedom of navigation (FoN) and North Korea’s nuclear missiles comprise the motive force for such cooperation. However, cooperation thus far has been trilateral and minimal, given divergent national interests and dispersed geopolitical locations. Cooperation among Japan, Republic of Korea (ROK), and the United States is increasing given the threat, but ROK’s public opinion is divided about Japan. Australia, Japan, and India have increased cooperation with the United States but are reluctant to conduct FoN operations with the United States to challenge China’s expansionism in the South China Sea. If China becomes more aggressive and blocks FoN or seizes territory, development toward an Asian NATO is possible.     

Pakistan’s response to US foreign policy towards South Asia 1977–1993

Relations between the USA and Pakistan have been tenuous since the 1947 partition of British India and the subsequent creation of the former. The 1979 Soviet intervention in Afghanistan focused the attention of the international community on South Asia. This article will examine the foreign policies of three successive US Presidential Administrations between 1977 and 1993, and how their decisions and corresponding actions were interpreted by the Pakistani government and its people. The key finding is the trend of the ebb and flow of US interest in Pakistan. The primary research conducted for this article shows that Pakistanis recognize this trend and consider it hypocritical of the US government. The current conditions in South Asia are ominously similar to those of 1992 with the drawdown of US and NATO troops from Afghanistan. Policy-makers would be wise to review the events of 1977–1993 so that the cycle is not repeated again.     

CONTRIBUTORS

Conventional wisdom states that the stability-instability paradox does not explain the effect of nuclear proliferation on the conflict propensity of South Asia, and that nuclear weapons have had a different and more dangerous impact in South Asia than Cold War Europe. I argue that the paradox explains nuclear South Asia; that the similarities between nuclear South Asia and Cold War Europe are strong; and that conventional instability does not cause revisionist challenges in the long run. I develop and probe a psychological causal mechanism that explains the impact of nuclear weapons on Cold War Europe and South Asia. Following the ten-month mobilized crisis in 2002, Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf may have adopted a more moderate foreign policy toward India after experiencing fear of imminent nuclear war, as Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev did forty years earlier. I argue that the stability-instability paradox explains Cold War Europe and nuclear South Asia and will, conditional on Iranian and North Korean revisionism, predict the impact of nuclear weapon development on these states' conflict propensities.     

MILITARY SPENDING AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN SOUTH ASIA: A REPLY

We review some critical comments upon our earlier paper in this journal and respond to these. We also critically evaluate a proposed alternative methodology giving reasons why our own provides a more robust approach for examining the nexus between military spending and economic growth in South Asia.     

全球治理视角下奥巴马政府太空战略解读

作为重要的全球公域范围与全球治理对象之一,太空既面临着日益严峻的资源、环境与安全问题,又不断彰显着其极具地缘政治意义的战略地位,攸关国家利益与安全。自进入太空时代以来,争夺和维持太空领域的领先地位一直是美国不懈追求的目标。美国的经济、军事等国家实力越来越依赖太空,同时其太空资产的脆弱性也愈发凸显。面对新的国际国内形势与外空态势的复合挑战,奥巴马政府适时调整了美国的太空战略。文章以全球公域和全球治理为切入视角,在分析太空领域全球治理现状的基础上,从太空活动行为准则的制定、太空国际合作的深入、太空军备竞赛的规制三个层面解读奥巴马政府的新版太空战略,并探讨其深层次的动因与影响,进而为中国参与太空领域的全球治理提供有益的理论支撑与现实参考。     

信息融合中的态势关联方法研究

在研究了态势目标航迹关联特点的基础上 ,建立了航迹预测和样条拟合关联模型 .该关联模型首先将前后两段航迹进行预测 ,然后进行样条拟合关联检验 ,从而实现了多目标环境中中断目标态势的关联判断 .经仿真计算 ,此关联模型是可行实用的     

Nuclear weapons,the United States and alliances in Europe and Asia: Toward an institutional perspective

America’s alliances in Europe and East Asia all involve some institutional cooperation on U.S. nuclear weapons policy, planning or employment—from consultative fora in Asia to joint policy and sharing of nuclear warheads in NATO. Such cooperation is often analyzed through the prism of “extended nuclear deterrence,” which focuses on the extension of U.S. security guarantees and their effect on potential adversaries. This article argues that this underplays the importance of institutional factors: Allies have historically addressed a range of objectives through such cooperation, which has helped to catalyze agreements about broader alliance strategy. The varied form such cooperation takes in different alliances also flows from the respective bargaining power of allies and the relative importance of consensus, rather than perceived threats. The article concludes that nuclear weapons cooperation will remain crucial in successful U.S. alliance management, as allies negotiate their relationship with each other in the face of geostrategic change.     

陆战Agent自主协作机制模型研究

陆战Agent是陆军作战复杂系统ABMS核心的基础要素,友方陆战Agent之间的协作机制是陆军作战复杂系统演化运行的关键支撑之一。陆战Agent之间的协作可归纳为自主协作和上级统一组织协作两种模式。陆战Agent之间的自主协作,与一般Agent系统中的协作模式相同,但由于陆军作战的特殊性,必须研究符合作战特点的陆战Agent自主协作机制。针对陆战Agent自主协作特点,对合同网协议进行了改进,探讨了陆战Agent自主协作机制模型的功能结构、框架、策略、流程和实施步骤,为陆军作战复杂系统的ABMS奠定了基础。