The politics of population

This article suggests some of the principal factors behind the decisions by an increasing number of countries deciding that the achievement of their national objectives required a policy for population, and the way that they are likely to work out. By 1983, 35 developing countries had an official policy to reduce their population growth rate, and in 34 others, the government supported family planning activities--usually for reasons of health or as a human right. The number is remarkable given the many compelling reasons that governments have for not attempting anything so difficult as to modify demographic trends. The future results of population programs, in social and economic terms, are very difficult to quantify, thus defying cost-benefit analysis of the desirability of investing resources in this area, rather than in something else. There are also powerful political reasons why a government might well hesitate before embarking on a policy to reduce the nation's fertility. At the very least, it implies government interference in the most private and personal of human relations, an invasion of human rights, and a disturbance of the traditional patterns of society and behavior. For many countries that are pursuing a policy to limit population growth, the decision has been taken only after the grievous consequences of not having such a policy have already become manifest. The critical question is how soon a government will make the connection among political disobedience, economic and social distress, and the population explosion, and adopt a population policy. Although the number of developing countries that have officially proclaimed a strongly pro-natalist population policy is relatively small, many have Marxist governments. Overall, governments have several strategies at their disposal: 1) improving the accessability and the quality of the service; 2) promoting population education and family planning motivation (with the assistance of the media, folk art, and personal persuasion); and 3) applying a judicious mixture of incentives and disincentives.     

UNITED NATIONS SECURITY COUNCIL REFORM

Much has changed since the United Nations was established in 1945. New challenges confront the organization including global warming, global diseases and global terrorism. Responding to these challenges requires continual change, adaptation and learning—a hallmark of the stewardship of current UN Secretary General Kofi Annan. In 1997 Annan announced major structural changes to streamline the organization, follow up five years later by another initiative to clarify, simplify and rationalize the organization and subsequent efforts to streamline UN peacekeeping. The UN has also forged new partnerships with civil society and the private sector. Important as these changes are, reform of the General Assembly and the Security Council hold the organization hostage to the vested interests of key member states. There are a number of options to make the Council more representative including regionalism, population distribution, economic weight, culture/religion/civilization and democracy. Clearly the largest challenge is the absence of representation for Asia, Africa and Latin America. Currently Germany, Japan, India and Brazil have strong claims—plus at least one candidate from Africa. Should these four countries decide to act in unison, they could force reform of the Security Council     

State and society in Asia

India and China are the 2 most populous countries of the world; in the 1950s, both countries initiated a centrally planned program for rapid development within vastly differing political systems. China embarked India's policy encouraged only voluntary acceptance of family planning. In both cases, however, government involvement in population forms a part of comprehensive national planning. Both countries rely on a limited resource base and technological sophistication in order to alleviate mass poverty and misery. The political implications of population growth cannot be neatly isolated from those that are generated by social and economic forces of change in a society that is in a transitional stage of modernization and development. Development has not been an unmixed bleesing; population growth is one of its counterproductive outcomes. The development process has begun to draw increasing attention to hitherto neglected correlates of fertility decline, such as a reduction in infant mortality, universal education, improvement in women's status, and women's participation in economic activity outside the home, all of which eventually result in greater demand for family planning services. Both the Indian and Chinese models highlight the importance of taking the people into one's confidence; the response of the common people to official initiatives is critical in securing a reduction in fertility levels. China has adopted a 1 child family policy, yet it is unreasonable to expect that the Indian people would agree to a nationally prescribed family size norm below 2 children. The principal determinant of future population trends in both these countries is the course of their politics. The success of developing countries will be assured if the developed nations support their progress without being worried about their population growth, which is the result of their unavoidable failure to modernize their social and economic structures.     

What is the global landpower network and what value might it provide?

US national security guidance, as well as the US Army’s operational experiences since 2001, emphasizes the importance of working closely with partner countries to achieve US strategic objectives. The US Army has introduced the global landpower network (GLN) concept as a means to integrate, sustain and advance the Army’s considerable ongoing efforts to meet US national security guidance. This study develops the GLN concept further, and addresses three questions. What benefits can the GLN provide the Army? What are the essential components of the GLN? What options exist for implementing the GLN concept? By developing the GLN concept, the Army has the opportunity to transition the GLN from an often ad hoc and reactive set of relationships to one that the Army more self-consciously prioritizes and leverages as a resource to meet US strategic objectives.     

Looking ahead in India

India and China contain more than 40% of the world's population, yet in India it is painfully clear that the political commitment necessary to tackle India's greatest problem is not there in full measure. India's present per capita income is less than $300, and nearly 65% of the people live below the poverty line. The average Indian woman produces 5 children; even if the Indian government's efforts to reduce family size to 2 children is successful by the year 2040, India will have a population of 2.5 billion. The possibility that India will succeed in reducing average family size to 2 children appears remote. 30 years ago, India became the 1st developing country to formally make family planning a matter of national policy. In the early years of the national family planning programs, practitioners had access mostly to sterilization and condoms. Over the years, theIndian government persuaded the US and other western donors to give $2 billion to population control programs. Still, the population continues to grow annually at the rate of 2.1%. Government statistics reflect the ups and downs of national population control policies; thenumber of new family planning users increased from 4.3 million in 1974-1975 to 12.5 million in 1976-1977, due largely to a dramatic increase in vasectomies. Tge number of new contraceptive users fell to 4.5 million after the "emergency" was lifted in 1977. The present Indian generation is far more receptive culturally as well as sociologically to the concept of population control than most other developing countries. What is needed now is renewed political committment by the Gandhi adminiostration. India cannot afford to replicate the Chinese way of tackling overpopulation without inflicting human abuses and without undermining its painstakingly cultivated democratic system.     

Turkey’s strategic choice: buy or make weapons?

Turkey has been investing in its national defence industrial base since the 1980s. As with other developing countries, Turkey’s motivations for investing in national defence industries can be boiled down to the pursuit of defence autarky, economic benefits and international prestige. However, after 40 years of investment, Turkey is unable to reach the primary goals of defence industrialisation. We argue that three factors are important to understanding Turkey’s persistence in these primary goals. First, Turkey believes that there is an overall improvement in its defence industrial capabilities and the goal of autarky is still reachable. Second, increased defence exports support the belief that Turkish defence industries have become sustainable and the trend will continue in the future. The third reason, perhaps most important of all, has to do with the domestic political gains of defence industrialisation: the AKP uses defence industry and indigenous weapon systems for prestige and, therefore, garners broader support.     

MONGOLIA

Formed according to broad principles laid out by the United Nations, nuclear-weapon-free zones (NWFZs) play an important role in promoting nuclear nonproliferation, paralleling and complementing the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. But the traditional regional treaty-based path to establishing NWFZs is not open to all states. Owing to various factors, some countries cannot realistically follow the path of states that have established traditional NWFZs. Mongolia, having declared itself a single-state NWFZ in 1992 and gained UN General Assembly recognition of this status in 1998, may provide an example for other countries to follow. This viewpoint presents Mongolia's case as a state seeking to acquire a nontraditional nuclear-weapon-free status despite unfavorable geopolitical circumstances. The case of Mongolia clearly demonstrates that the creation of a credible, single-state NWFZ status is possible, but demands the support and flexibility of both neighboring states and the nuclear weapon states.     

Domestic violence legislation for development,peace and security in Nigeria

Though laws have been enacted in different parts of Nigeria to address some aspects of gender-based violence, domestic violence persists with serious consequences for social and economic development. Nigeria has not enacted specific domestic law that is applicable throughout the federation, despite the United Nations mandate to all countries to adopt and enforce such laws by 2015. This article examines the causes and nature of domestic violence in Nigeria, and the legal reform needed to address the situation. In addition to library sources, the study used focus group discussions and individual interviews (involving the general population, key informants, legislators and traditional rulers) to discover that enacting specific national domestic violence legislation is necessary to address the problem in Nigeria, but enacting laws alone is not a magic bullet.     

The Gravity of Arms

The aim of this paper is to investigate the determinants of international arms transfers in a gravity model framework. By distinguishing between the decision to export arms (extensive margin) and the value of the arms exported (intensive margin), while also considering its interdependence, is what differentiates this paper from previous research. A theoretically justified gravity model of trade augmented with political and security motives is estimated using a two-stage panel data approach for 104 exporting countries over the period from 1950 to 2007. In addition to the usual gravity variables related to the economic mass of the trading countries and the trade cost factors, the model is extended with political and security factors. The level of democracy in both trading partners, political differences between trading partners and voting similarity with the United States in the UN General Assembly of the countries engaged in trade are the main political factors, whereas the existence of conflicts, military pacts, and embargoes are taken as security motives. The key result indicates that both political and security motives are an important determinant of an arms trade, but their effects on the extensive margin of exports (the decision to order a transfer) differs from their effect on the intensive margin (average value of exports). Moreover, the relative importance of the factors under study has changed since 1989. In the post-cold war period, countries that are less democratic are more likely to export arms, military pacts are less relevant and embargoes play a role.     

Conflict management in the Central African Republic: making genocide prevention work

This commentary analyses the international response to the crisis that struck the Central African Republic (CAR) in early December 2013. It examines three intertwined dimensions defining the courses of action available to policymakers dealing with pre-genocidal crises: the politics and institutional manoeuvring shaping the United Nations (UN) Security Council's decision to authorise an enforcement mission without deploying ‘blue helmets’ on the ground; the operational complexities involved in launching rapid reaction forces; and the interdependent logics between peacebuilding and atrocity prevention. The author argues that there are three ways for the UN Secretariat to ensure a more effective response to CAR-type situations: generating political will to respond swiftly to deteriorating crises leading to widespread abuses of human rights by advancing the concept of Responsibility to Protect as a core component of states' national interests; developing strategic frameworks for the deployment of multi-plural missions equipped to avert the actual or potential threat of atrocities; and developing joint early warning and scenario planning between peacebuilding and atrocity prevention agencies.     

United States Internal Security Assistance to Pakistan1

Pakistan confronts numerous domestic security challenges including jihadist extremism, Sunni-Shi'a sectarian violence, drug trafficking, illegal commodity smuggling, endemic corruption, and systemic problems with the provision of justice and law enforcement. While much has been written about US military assistance to the Government of Pakistan (GOP) and the ever-evolving political relations between the two countries, basic questions of highest policy significance related to Pakistan's internal security have never been fully studied or considered. This essay begins to address these empirical lacunae. It first provides a comprehensive examination of Pakistan's internal security environment and the effectiveness of the GOP's criminal justice structures in dealing with these challenges. The paper then goes on to assess the impact and utility of the current suite of US law enforcement assistance in helping to fortify Pakistan's domestic security environment. The study raises a number of difficult questions pertinent to the long-term impact of this support, particularly in terms of its effect on fostering a viable, accountable and transparent system of civilian governance and policing.     

Subcontracting State-Building

Abstract

Contemporary development assistance often takes the form of subcontracted state-building. Foreign donors hire for-profit firms to provide services and to improve or create institutions in developing countries, particularly those experiencing internal conflict. This arrangement creates two counterproductive dynamics: first, it introduces agency problems between donors, recipient states, subcontractors, and citizens; and second, it undermines the long-run development of domestic bureaucratic capacity by creating disincentives for the host government to invest. These dynamics hinder, rather than foster, the legitimacy of state institutions. This paper summarizes trends in external support to state-building since the 1970s and illustrates subcontracted state-building with examples from Colombia.     

Mexico: a model for success

In Mexico, a 40 year period of political stability and economic advancement, hailed for its high rates of growth in income per capita, rapid urbanization, and impressive gains in indicators of health and education, seemed to come to a halt in the early 1980s. Since the early 1970s, fertility has declined sharply in chronological association with a new population policy and the implementation of a national family planning program. If in 1940 there was no apparent reason for the Mexican state to have much interest in limiting fertility, such was no longer the case by 1970. The General Law of Population that had been passed in 1947 was laced with the expansionist ideology that dominated demographic issues for more that a century; its pro-natalism had been reinforced by health regulations prohibiting the sale and use of contraceptives and by a penal code that made abortion a crime. Between 1970 and 1981 the total fertility rate fell by about 39%. Since 1975, change in contraceptive practice accounts for the bulk of the measured fertility decline. Between 1976 and 1982 there was a 66% increase in contraceptive prevalence. The government's involvement in family planning activities helped to: 1) develop an effective contraceptive distribution system; 2) circulate extensive information, education, and communication publicizing fertility and images of the small family; and 3) mobilize health practitioners in public institutions to counsel and persuade their clients to accept and practice contraception. The emerging debate over population policy in Brazil may well prefigure debates in other Latin American countries; the recent democratization in Brazil is the vocalization of a demand from women's groups and the left for government provided family planning services. Overall, Mexico's willingness to take the long view tackle the birth rate issue head on is likely to remain an exception in Latin America.     

建国以来我国民族团结思想在新疆的发展分析

世界上大部分国家都是多民族国家,但对各国政府来讲,如何在风云变幻的国际、国内形势下,始终保持国内各民族的团结,则是一个十分棘手的问题。我国党和政府始终坚持马克思主义的民族理论和政策,在各民族团结、和谐共存方面作出了很好的探索。其中,坚持各民族团结的思想是首要的和基本的。本文就我国建国以来民族团结的思想及其在新疆的发展作了较深入的研究。     

COUNTRY SURVEY XX: DEFENCE SPENDING AND PEACEKEEPING IN URUGUAY

Uruguay is a country with a very unusual profile, since it has just 3.4 million inhabitants but is among the top ten troop contributors to the UN PKO (Peace Keeping Operations) and is the first contributor per capita. In 2002 and 2003 it was the seventh troop contributor to the UN, and by the end of 2005 it was eighth in the UN ranking. Uruguay has never had any imminent external threat to its security after its independence in 1828, and it has had no internal threat since the end of the urban guerrillas’ actions in the 1970s. The country has no defence industry, and has always had an all‐volunteer military service, which presently involves almost 1% of the total population, and about 2% of the labour force. The empirical evidence presented in this paper shows that, in the past decades, Uruguayan defence spending has been influenced mainly by internal factors, most of them of an economic nature. The high participation in PKO has not increased military expenditure and it has produced a positive impact on the country’s economy.     

美国创新体系军民深度融合发展特点及启示

美国具有全球最为先进的军事科技实力、军事科技创新能力和国防保障能力,美国的科技创新体系具有军民融合深度发展的特点,在军民融合创新发展上没有明显的时间滞后,是世界上军民融合科技创新体系发展最好的典型样板国家。论文梳理分析美国国防创新系统及其特点,分析美国国防科技经费预算、研究方向和项目流程,研究分析美国促进军民融合创新与发展的制度保障体系,总结美国创新体系中军民深度融合发展的特点,解析美国军民融合发展中的典型案例、各自成功的模式和主要经验,并结合我国军民融合发展的实际情况提出建议。     

The contexts of strategy as a guide for defense planning in the Philippines

Efforts toward developing an independent and credible Philippine defense policy were revived when Benigno Simeon C. Aquino III was elected President of the Philippines in 2010. President Aquino renewed the military modernization program in 2012 and emphasized the necessity of a “minimum credible defense posture.” Given the modernization efforts of the government, this article aims to contribute to the development of the concept of minimum credible defense posture by exploring how theory contributes to defense planning. It argues that the contexts of strategy are useful in planning for national defense because these contexts can provide a conceptual framework for defense planners. It proceeds in three parts: the opening section reviews the literature on defense planning; the second surveys the context of developing strategies as discussed in the General Theory of Strategy; and the last provides a definition of minimum credible defense and applies the context of developing strategies to the case of the Philippines.     

Initiatives in Africa

Since the 1st oil crisis in 1973, the economies of sub-Saharan Africa have barely kept pace with their burgeoning populations. Women in Sub-Saharan Africa give birth more often than women in any other region of the world, with an average of more than 6.5 live births each. The region's natural increase average 2.5% a year in the 1960s, 2.7% in the 1970s, and in the mid-1980s, it is 3.1% per annum--a rate that will double the regions population in 22 years. National leaders in Sub-Saharan Africa were slow to consider population policy as a key component of the social and economic development effort. The neglect of population issues is reflected in the limited scope of public or private family planning programs in the sub-continent. Donor countries and institutions play an important role in developing the information base by providing technical training to government staff, supporting research, and disseminating information to a broad spectrum of political actors. Some examples of policy reconsiderations in Nigeria, Zambia, Liberia, and Niger are given. These countries are starting to give active consideration to population policies to reduce fertility and high rates of population growth by expanding family planning services, raising the age of marriage, improving the status of women, providing family-life education, and incorporating economic incentives for smaller families into the provision of social services. The highly centralized nature of African governments dictates that the acquiescence of the governmental elite must be obtained before any policy can take hold. Overall, high population growth rates in combination with a stagnating social and economic development effort throughout the region have provided the catalyst for a new look at Sub-Saharan Africa population policy. The ability of African nations to implement policies that reduce fertility is more open to question; no African nation has as yet done so, and the socioeconomics factors contributing to high fertility remain strong.     

关于联合国维和警察公共关系工作的几点思考

阐述了开展联合国维和警察公共关系工作的必要性与紧迫性，分析了开展联合国维和警察公共关系工作的原则与步骤，从加强联合国维和警察与各种传播媒体之间的公共关系工作；加强联合国维和警察与任务区民众之间的公共关系工作；加强联合国维和警察机构与联合国其他机构、各国驻维和任务区外交代表机构以及当地政府之间的公共关系工作；加强联合国维和警察内部派遣国警队之间的公共关系工作；重视发挥维和警察个体的公关作用；及时处理突发事件引起的公关危机等6个方面提出了开展维和警察公共关系工作的具体措施。     

Reforming the notion of national sovereignty by external intervention

In principle, national sovereignty is the right of a nation to govern its internal affairs without foreign interference. In practice, it is defined by one's interpretation of international law, which may permit legal external intervention under some circumstances, ultimately removing a nation's sovereignty. This paper will examine the current system of international law outlined by the United Nations, analyse the ambiguities contained within its Charter and elaborate on how external intervention can be justified. The case-study of recent developments related to Libya will demonstrate that the manner in which international law is interpreted is changing the notion of principles of sovereignty.