层次任务网络的作战计划建模及生成技术

针对以网络为中心的作战计划的特点,提出基于层次任务网络的军事作战计划建模方法.在对层次任务网络形式化描述的基础上,介绍层次任务网络计划求解算法.基于军事作战计划的抽象模型,提出军事和战计划中军事规则、作战使命、作战能力和作战行动过程等要素与层次任务网络的映射关系,并针对登岛战役案例对基于层次任务网络的军事计划建模和求解过程进行说明.     

基于SysML的作战行动序列建模方法

为了达到组织目标和任务使命,必须建立一系列彼此相互关联的、具有层次结构的活动和过程之间的关系.要实现对组织的有效管理,核心就在于通过计划建模和控制系统来协调这些关系.在介绍与分析SysML语言特点的基础上,建立了作战行动序列(COA,Course of Action)的形式化定义,提出了基于SysML的作战行动序列建模方法,并给出了应用实例.应用该建模方法,有利于提高作战行动计划的适应性和开放性.     

基于HTN作战计划生成技术中时序约束处理

针对以网络为中心的作战计划的特点,提出了基于层次任务网络的军事作战计划建模方法。在对层次任务网络形式化描述的基础上,结合简单时序网络和Allen区间代数对传统层次任务网络在时序约束方面进行扩展,介绍了扩展层次任务网络与简单时序网络的映射方法并给出计划求解算法。基于军事作战计划的抽象模型,提出了军事作战计划中军事规则、作战使命、作战能力和作战行动过程等要素与层次任务网络的映射关系。     

军事建模仿真中概念模型定义比较

作战描述和建模是决定仿真系统成功的关键因素,作战描述和建模是通过军事人员和技术人员的交流合作建立的,概念模型建模技术为促进军事人员和技术人员的交流而提供技术支持.但是在建模仿真界对于概念模型有很多不同的理解,这些不同的理解导致建立的概念模型差别很大,也限制其效用的发挥.分析了造成概念模型的理解差异的原因,给出了一个比较的框架进行比较,并从战争的发展趋势和建模仿真开发的需求给出了定义.     

联合编队作战行动方案建模

研究联合编队的作战行动方案问题,首先需要建立合理的任务模型。在基本作战样式基础上,针对联合编队任务特点,设计了一种联合编队作战行动方案的建模方法。该模型包含对海攻击和对空防御等5种基本作战样式,结合规划和调度两方面的特点,提供了资源和系统状态的描述机制。实例证明建模方案不仅具有可行性,而且丰富了作战行动方案的建模理论,对联合编队作战系统的研究、决策和建设具有一定的参考价值。     

一种基于知识的作战计划系统设计

作战计划系统是复杂的问题求解系统,在军事领域的各个方面发挥着重要的作用。介绍了当前一些主要的作战计划辅助生成系统及其特点,分析比较和归纳整理了当前军用计划系统所采用的一些常见规划技术和优缺点,重点分析了作战计划系统中的智能规划技术。在此基础上,提出了一种基于知识的作战计划辅助生成系统的开发设想,构建了系统知识库,系统采用层级任务网络规划技术,给出了这种规划技术的理论框架和算法过程,并且把这种技术与多主体规划技术相结合,辅助实现军事作战任务的逐层分解与规划优化,进而生成完整的行动序列,较好地解决了作战计划辅助生成问题。     

基于离散事件仿真要素的军事仿真因果追溯方法

基于离散事件系统建模与仿真的军事仿真系统在军事筹划阶段扮演着至关重要的作用。因果追溯与分析是军事仿真中重要的技术，它可以在大量的数据与复杂的交互关系中找出时序上的关联关系，帮助研究人员确定作战行动中的一些关键实体或事件，用于探究战争的发展脉络与蕴含其中的因果关系。首先对作战仿真领域的因果追溯分析做了简要介绍，然后提出了一种基于离散事件仿真要素的因果追溯分析方法，这种方法可以分析军事仿真中的因果关系，并且有很高的通用性和良好的实用性。     

基于UML的海军作战结构模型形式化描述研究*

以海军装备应用研究系统为背景,着眼于海军作战仿真想定生成系统的标准化,通过分析海军作战想定描述的层次结构,针对统一建模语言(UML)在面向对象系统方面的应用特点,探讨了使用UML表示标准的作战想定开发方法,并以合同进攻敌海上编队为例介绍了海军作战想定的设计方法。通过建立实体行动的军事概念模型以及对其进行的形式化描述,实现了军事专业人员和仿真技术开发人员之间的顺利交流,为仿真想定辅助生成系统的开发提供参考。     

基于关键行动点的作战计划动态评估

作战进程的仿真是作战计划生成系统的重要组成部分,采用作战力量点抽象和简化作战实体的方法,基于关键行动点的思想对作战进程仿真建模,由离散、静态的作战行动点,向连续、动态的作战行动转化,通过计算各个阶段作战效能值,“以静制动”,实现对作战计划任意阶段的计算机仿真评估.     

军事概念模型知识获取过程方法和工具

军事概念模型是独立于实现的真实世界的实体、任务等作战要素的表示.军事概念模型是军事建模仿真系统开发中非常重要的一步,对于仿真的可信度具有重要的影响.从知识系统开发的观点将军事概念模型开发分成知识获取和知识工程两个阶段.探讨了军事知识获取的过程,知识结构化描述的表示方法、语言和描述过程,在此基础上开发了支持军事概念模型知识获取的工具"兵书一号",并得到了广泛的推广和应用.     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

Helping hands: external support for the KNU insurgency in Burma

This article analyses to what extent the Burmese KNU insurgency made use of external support from states, refugees, and diasporas. Based on extensive fieldwork it is concluded that support from neighbouring states and refugees has for years kept the Karen rebellion alive. Western countries perceived forms of resistance to the illegitimate Burmese regime as just and have therefore played a crucial role in the continuation of conflict in Karen State. It is important that policymakers and donors as well as executing organizations continue to reflect critically on the way they exercise their work.     

基于GTST-DMLD-ESD的装备RMS建模仿真

装备的RMS是装备的重要设计参数,是影响战备完好和保障能力的关键因素.引入GTST-DMLD作为主要建模工具,建立起装备系统的RMS描述模型,以ESD为补充和扩展,对维修过程进行建模.并以GTST-DMLD-ESD模型作为装备RMS仿真的核心,对装备RMS仿真模型的总体框架进行了研究,并对各模块进行了较为详细的探讨.     

Cyber sheiks and grassroots jihadis: the war in Syria and the devolution of the Bosnian Salafi communities

ABSTRACT

What was the scope of the Bosnian jihadi participation in the war in Syria? Did the Bosnian volunteers tend to join one particular faction? Why did the Bosnian youngsters decide to join the holy war in the Levant? Was this an organized and hierarchical process or was this a grassroots movement? Last, were all the Salafis in Bosnia supportive of this dynamic or did this process cause internal frictions? These are some of the questions that this research will try to answer.     

Country survey XVI the defence sector in the economy of a declining superpower: Soviet Union and Russia, 1965-2001

The Soviet Union was able to develop a large military-industrial complex and become the world's second superpower despite deficiencies in its centrally planned economy because defence was given high priority status and special planning, rationing and administrative mechanisms were used to attain national security objectives. However, in the period 1976-85 the effectiveness of priority protection diminished and defence institutions experienced more of the problems typical of the shortage economic system. The heavy defence burden also created growing difficulties for the civilian economy. The attempts by the Gorbachev government to reform the defence sector and improve defence-economic relationships during perestroika (1985-91) uniformly failed. For most of the transition period, the Russian military-industrial complex has been adversely affected by its low priority status, cuts in defence spending, instability of the hybrid politico-economic system, and negative growth of the economy. The armed forces and defence industry have been reduced in size and their outputs of military services and equipment have fallen to low levels. Nevertheless, the Russian armed forces still have over one million troops, significant stocks of sophisticated conventional weapons, and a large nuclear arsenal. The government of President Putin has raised the priority of the defence sector, increased real defence spending, and adopted ambitious plans to revive Russian military power. It is likely, though, that tight resource constraints will hamper efforts to reform the armed forces and to upgrade weapons. By 2010 Russia will be an important, but not dominant, military power in Eurasia.     

Traffickers,terrorists, and a ‘new security challenge’: Russian counternarcotics strategy and the Federal Service for the Control of the Drugs Trade

The collapse of the Soviet Union precipitated the massive expansion of drug use and trade in Russia. The country now has one of the largest populations of injecting drug users in the world and has become the largest single-country market for Afghan heroin. In 2003 the Federal Service for the Control of the Drugs Trade was created to coordinate a comprehensive counternarcotics strategy appropriate to the scale of this threat. The service continues to face a number of challenges in its early stages of development. However, it has made considerable advances in improving responses to large-scale organised crime and in building international cooperation.