复杂电磁环境下野战指挥所的伪装问题

文章着眼复杂电磁环境下野战指挥所的生存问题,分析了未来战场野战指挥所将面临的主要威胁,研究了提高未来战场指挥所生存能力的对策,提出了加强伪装训练的方式方法,明确了组织开展伪装作业的注意事项。     

复杂电磁条件下野战指挥所的伪装防护问题

复杂电磁环境作为信息化战争的突出特征，对野战指挥所的作战效能有着重要的影响。文章系统的分析了复杂电磁环境的特点，阐述了复杂电磁环境对野战指挥所的各种影响，提出了野战指挥所在复杂电磁环境下的伪装对策。     

时间约束下的某型火箭炮毁伤概率模型及仿真

针对目前计算火箭炮毁伤概率只考虑射击精度和目标特性及弹药量等因素,而不考虑目标机动和对抗因素、生存能力的不足,基于射击理论和火力对抗理论,建立了考虑时间约束的火箭炮营毁伤概率模型,对想定中考虑目标机动及生存因素等时间约束的毁伤概率进行了仿真计算,仿真结果表明了模型的有效性以及目标机动火力对抗决定的生存需求使火箭炮毁伤概率具有时间敏感性。     

滞留时间毁伤概率及其统计特性

分析了当前陆、海、空装备在机动作战中对机动目标射击过程的共性,即在常态瞄射过程中机动目标会随机穿越有效射击域.研究表明,用传统的分析方法所得结果不能真实有效地反映出这种情况下的毁伤概率.为此,提出了目标对射击域具有随机滞留时间情况下的毁伤概率及其统计特性问题.通过机动目标随机穿越射击域时的概率特性,得到滞留时间毁伤概率及其统计特征量的数学表示和计算公式以及求解毁伤概率的近似公式.最后给出算例及相关结论.     

弹炮结合防空武器系统机动生存能力模型研究

从弹炮结合防空武器系统通过机动作战提高生存能力的角度出发,结合防空武器系统机动作战过程中的战术背景,提取了该过程中决定防空武器系统生存能力的决定性要素,然后分析了该过程中影响防空武器系统生存能力的总机动时间、被发现概率、抗击成功率、被毁伤概率等各项指标的特点,在此基础上建立了用于研究该过程的数学模型,最后给出实例进行了仿真计算,通过对计算结果的分析,证明了该模型的有效性,从而为防空兵机动作战模拟提供了一定的参考.     

火箭子母弹对行进中炮兵连射击的毁伤概率

炮兵实施机动是提高其生存能力与作战能力的重要手段之一,而从集结地域至待机阵地机动阶段由于距离对方近、暴露时间长,是对方毁伤火力种类最为丰富和威胁最大的阶段.以行进中的自行与牵引炮兵连为研究对象,分析了该阶段火箭子母弹攻击时的毁伤概率,计算了相应条件下的毁伤概率值,描述了毁伤概率与航路角、行进速度之间的基本关系和变化规律.     

未来空域窗下高炮武器系统的毁伤概率

为得到更准确的高炮武器系统毁伤概率算法,将射击诸元误差进行了分解,并对射击诸元误差各分量进行了相关性和重复性分析;在上述分析的基础上,结合弱相关误差序列的生成方法,给出了毁伤概率计算的蒙特卡罗法;基于此算法,计算了高炮武器系统使用未来空域窗射击体制或集火射击体制时,对不同机动特性目标的毁伤概率;结果表明,对高机动目标进行射击时,未来空域窗射击体制相比集火射击体制更优;同时给出了根据目标机动特性选择射击体制的方法。     

基于混合神经网络的野战仓库伪装效能评估

随着现代高技术的发展及其在军事领域的广泛应用,战场透明度明显增加.在未来战场上,发现即意味着被摧毁.野战仓库的生存也面临前所未有的严重威胁,伪装就成为其提高自身生存能力的有效手段.伪装效果的好坏将直接影响其战场生存力.采用遗传算法改进BP神经网络模型,分析了其基本思路以及具体实施步骤,并运用其对野战仓库伪装效能进行评估.实例表明,该模型能够较好地克服人为因素和模糊随机性的影响,评估结果更为科学可信.     

机动导弹系统战场生存能力评估

传统机动导弹系统生存模型考虑的因素较为片面,多以单次打击的毁伤概率为主,辅助决策的意义较低。基于机动导弹系统的任务流程,考虑其在战场环境下所应对的不同情形,提出有效的机动导弹系统战场生存能力评估模型。旨在通过模型分析敌我各战场因素对机动导弹系统生存状态的影响,为指挥员决策提供依据。     

武装直升机对装甲目标攻击效率评估

针对陆航作战实际需求,依据作战运筹与系统工程原理,以完成攻击任务概率和毁伤目标数量为评估指标,对武装直升机攻击装甲目标效率问题进行了研究。采用系统分析方法建立了武装直升机完成攻击任务概率分析模型,基于单服务台随机服务系统理论建立了武装直升机毁伤装甲目标数量评估模型,结合连续机动攻击战法和有关作战条件,通过示例分析和验证了评估模型的可用性,揭示了在敌防区内、外武装直升机攻击效率的变化规律,提出了一系列实用的攻击规则。     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.     

Helping hands: external support for the KNU insurgency in Burma

This article analyses to what extent the Burmese KNU insurgency made use of external support from states, refugees, and diasporas. Based on extensive fieldwork it is concluded that support from neighbouring states and refugees has for years kept the Karen rebellion alive. Western countries perceived forms of resistance to the illegitimate Burmese regime as just and have therefore played a crucial role in the continuation of conflict in Karen State. It is important that policymakers and donors as well as executing organizations continue to reflect critically on the way they exercise their work.     

基于GTST-DMLD-ESD的装备RMS建模仿真

装备的RMS是装备的重要设计参数,是影响战备完好和保障能力的关键因素.引入GTST-DMLD作为主要建模工具,建立起装备系统的RMS描述模型,以ESD为补充和扩展,对维修过程进行建模.并以GTST-DMLD-ESD模型作为装备RMS仿真的核心,对装备RMS仿真模型的总体框架进行了研究,并对各模块进行了较为详细的探讨.     

Cyber sheiks and grassroots jihadis: the war in Syria and the devolution of the Bosnian Salafi communities

ABSTRACT

What was the scope of the Bosnian jihadi participation in the war in Syria? Did the Bosnian volunteers tend to join one particular faction? Why did the Bosnian youngsters decide to join the holy war in the Levant? Was this an organized and hierarchical process or was this a grassroots movement? Last, were all the Salafis in Bosnia supportive of this dynamic or did this process cause internal frictions? These are some of the questions that this research will try to answer.     

Country survey XVI the defence sector in the economy of a declining superpower: Soviet Union and Russia, 1965-2001

The Soviet Union was able to develop a large military-industrial complex and become the world's second superpower despite deficiencies in its centrally planned economy because defence was given high priority status and special planning, rationing and administrative mechanisms were used to attain national security objectives. However, in the period 1976-85 the effectiveness of priority protection diminished and defence institutions experienced more of the problems typical of the shortage economic system. The heavy defence burden also created growing difficulties for the civilian economy. The attempts by the Gorbachev government to reform the defence sector and improve defence-economic relationships during perestroika (1985-91) uniformly failed. For most of the transition period, the Russian military-industrial complex has been adversely affected by its low priority status, cuts in defence spending, instability of the hybrid politico-economic system, and negative growth of the economy. The armed forces and defence industry have been reduced in size and their outputs of military services and equipment have fallen to low levels. Nevertheless, the Russian armed forces still have over one million troops, significant stocks of sophisticated conventional weapons, and a large nuclear arsenal. The government of President Putin has raised the priority of the defence sector, increased real defence spending, and adopted ambitious plans to revive Russian military power. It is likely, though, that tight resource constraints will hamper efforts to reform the armed forces and to upgrade weapons. By 2010 Russia will be an important, but not dominant, military power in Eurasia.     

Traffickers,terrorists, and a ‘new security challenge’: Russian counternarcotics strategy and the Federal Service for the Control of the Drugs Trade

The collapse of the Soviet Union precipitated the massive expansion of drug use and trade in Russia. The country now has one of the largest populations of injecting drug users in the world and has become the largest single-country market for Afghan heroin. In 2003 the Federal Service for the Control of the Drugs Trade was created to coordinate a comprehensive counternarcotics strategy appropriate to the scale of this threat. The service continues to face a number of challenges in its early stages of development. However, it has made considerable advances in improving responses to large-scale organised crime and in building international cooperation.