基于马尔可夫模型的多点源诱偏系统作战计算问题

针对反辐射武器对多点源诱偏系统的毁伤概率计算问题,提出了基于马尔可夫模型的计算方法。通过分析和推导反辐射武器对单点源的毁伤概率计算方法,引入马尔可夫模型构造马尔可夫链,并在此基础上设计了反辐射武器对多点源诱偏系统的毁伤概率计算方法。进一步,根据作战任务要求,对反辐射武器兵力需求进行计算。同时仿真验证了算法的可行性,结果表明该方法可以较好地计算出反辐射武器对具有多点源的诱偏系统的毁伤概率及兵力需求。     

多点源抗反辐射导弹方法综述

就有源诱饵对反辐射导弹进行诱偏及各种相关技术问题进行了系统阐述,包括多点源诱偏系统、雷达和诱饵之间的时间补偿、诱饵间距配置、诱偏系统参数的设置、天线重叠覆盖区域等问题,最后提出了一些尚待解决的问题.     

干扰ARM寻的的有源诱偏技术研究

本文是防空导弹式器系统对抗ARM技术专题研究报告,对干扰ARM寻的制导的有源诱偏技术进行了分析设计,简介了有源诱偏过程计算机仿真工作,并讨论了有源诱偏实验的有关问题。本文说明利用数学仿真和模拟实验配合进行有源诱偏技术研究,对于有源诱偏技术应用是有实际意义的。     

ARUAV时域鉴别技术抗多点源诱偏性能分析

分析反辐射无人机(ARUAV)常用的时间鉴别技术——脉冲前沿跟踪技术用于对抗多点源诱偏(诱饵+雷达)系统的可用性.建模仿真结果表明,利用该技术,无人机的被动雷达导引头(PRS)可以及时发现先到达的信号,测量其信号源的方向,进行跟踪和攻击,降低诱偏效果.提出了一种多架ARUAV协同工作对抗多点源诱偏的思路.     

有源诱偏系统抗反辐射导弹动态飞行过程分析

结合ARM的发射、攻击过程,重点对ARM飞行轨迹为多段弧线和直线相连接的复杂情况进行了分析,并推导出了误差修正圆弧段圆心的快速计算公式和航迹段交接位置的计算公式,最后通过计算机仿真与结果分析,得到了有源诱偏系统对抗反辐射导弹实用的布站间距配置方案,为设计和部署有源诱偏系统提供了理论依据。     

用毁伤概率指标优化二点源诱饵系统布阵

两点源诱偏系统是应用有源干扰的方式,利用反辐射导弹(ARM)本身的缺陷来对反辐射导弹的导引头进行干扰,从而达到保护主战雷达目的的一种有源干扰系统。主要从反辐射导弹的基本原理和有源诱偏的概念入手,对两点源诱偏系统进行理论推导、数学建模、布站设想,后引入毁伤概率指标对各种布站方式进行分类、仿真,对每一种仿真结果进行分析、评估,再把各种分析结果加以比较,从中找出最佳的布站方式。最后利用以上的分析结果,得出几点有用的结论。     

四点源诱偏对抗反辐射导弹效果仿真

对四点源诱偏系统对抗反辐射导弹(ARM)的被动雷达导引头(PRS)原理进行分析;建立诱偏系统模型,计算和仿真了各辐射源在PRS动态过程中合成场的幅度和相位,并对仿真结果进行分析;推导了PRS处合成波波阵面法线与地面的交点的坐标,并在所建系统模型的基础上进行了定量仿真。仿真结果表明,四点源诱偏系统不仅能保护目标雷达,而且可有效避免诱饵受攻击。     

IMM-EKF的弹道导弹轨道实时动态预测

快速准确的导弹轨道预测是有效进行导弹防御的前提。提出一种基于IMM-EKF的弹道导弹轨道实时动态预测方法,对导弹发射点和落点分别进行动态预测研究。首先,构建不包含导弹先验信息的IMM-EKF弹道估计器;其次,定义一种模型概率累积因子,用于估计导弹的关机时刻及相应的运动状态;最后,基于导弹运动状态的实时估计,动态预测落点和发射点。仿真实验结果表明:该方法能实时动态预测导弹发射点和落点;发射点预测应利用主动段状态估计,而落点预测则在导弹自由段早期进行为宜。     

诱偏条件下反辐射导弹毁伤能力研究

基于有源诱偏原理,推导出反辐射导弹在有源诱偏条件下的弹落点计算公式;并由已知的导弹毁伤模型,利用计算机仿真获得对目标雷达或其有源诱饵的毁伤效能。通过仿真结果分析不同的攻击角和末速度对导弹毁伤效能的影响,由此获得反辐射导弹在干扰条件下的最佳攻击角和末速度范围,对于在诱偏条件下研究反辐射导弹毁伤能力的有效性和实用性提供一定的理论和实用参考。     

单脉冲测角系统干扰方法初探

试图说明对单脉冲导引头可采取的干扰途径.通过分析双点源干扰系统对单脉冲测角系统的作用,说明了对于双点源干扰系统,若要取得有效的角度诱偏干扰效果,则2个干扰源间必须有足够的间距.最后指出,在实际电子战中,干扰单脉冲导引头时,饱和交叉眼转发器很难得到实际应用,而线性交叉眼转发器在电子战中可以得到应用.     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

Helping hands: external support for the KNU insurgency in Burma

This article analyses to what extent the Burmese KNU insurgency made use of external support from states, refugees, and diasporas. Based on extensive fieldwork it is concluded that support from neighbouring states and refugees has for years kept the Karen rebellion alive. Western countries perceived forms of resistance to the illegitimate Burmese regime as just and have therefore played a crucial role in the continuation of conflict in Karen State. It is important that policymakers and donors as well as executing organizations continue to reflect critically on the way they exercise their work.     

基于GTST-DMLD-ESD的装备RMS建模仿真

装备的RMS是装备的重要设计参数,是影响战备完好和保障能力的关键因素.引入GTST-DMLD作为主要建模工具,建立起装备系统的RMS描述模型,以ESD为补充和扩展,对维修过程进行建模.并以GTST-DMLD-ESD模型作为装备RMS仿真的核心,对装备RMS仿真模型的总体框架进行了研究,并对各模块进行了较为详细的探讨.     

Cyber sheiks and grassroots jihadis: the war in Syria and the devolution of the Bosnian Salafi communities

ABSTRACT

What was the scope of the Bosnian jihadi participation in the war in Syria? Did the Bosnian volunteers tend to join one particular faction? Why did the Bosnian youngsters decide to join the holy war in the Levant? Was this an organized and hierarchical process or was this a grassroots movement? Last, were all the Salafis in Bosnia supportive of this dynamic or did this process cause internal frictions? These are some of the questions that this research will try to answer.     

Country survey XVI the defence sector in the economy of a declining superpower: Soviet Union and Russia, 1965-2001

The Soviet Union was able to develop a large military-industrial complex and become the world's second superpower despite deficiencies in its centrally planned economy because defence was given high priority status and special planning, rationing and administrative mechanisms were used to attain national security objectives. However, in the period 1976-85 the effectiveness of priority protection diminished and defence institutions experienced more of the problems typical of the shortage economic system. The heavy defence burden also created growing difficulties for the civilian economy. The attempts by the Gorbachev government to reform the defence sector and improve defence-economic relationships during perestroika (1985-91) uniformly failed. For most of the transition period, the Russian military-industrial complex has been adversely affected by its low priority status, cuts in defence spending, instability of the hybrid politico-economic system, and negative growth of the economy. The armed forces and defence industry have been reduced in size and their outputs of military services and equipment have fallen to low levels. Nevertheless, the Russian armed forces still have over one million troops, significant stocks of sophisticated conventional weapons, and a large nuclear arsenal. The government of President Putin has raised the priority of the defence sector, increased real defence spending, and adopted ambitious plans to revive Russian military power. It is likely, though, that tight resource constraints will hamper efforts to reform the armed forces and to upgrade weapons. By 2010 Russia will be an important, but not dominant, military power in Eurasia.     

Traffickers,terrorists, and a ‘new security challenge’: Russian counternarcotics strategy and the Federal Service for the Control of the Drugs Trade

The collapse of the Soviet Union precipitated the massive expansion of drug use and trade in Russia. The country now has one of the largest populations of injecting drug users in the world and has become the largest single-country market for Afghan heroin. In 2003 the Federal Service for the Control of the Drugs Trade was created to coordinate a comprehensive counternarcotics strategy appropriate to the scale of this threat. The service continues to face a number of challenges in its early stages of development. However, it has made considerable advances in improving responses to large-scale organised crime and in building international cooperation.