基于"当前"统计模型的火控预测器

分析了二阶多项式模型对机动目标进行跟踪和预测时存在的不足,研究了"当前"统计模型在火控预测器中的应用;通过仿真计算,比较了基于"当前"统计模型的火控预测器和基于二阶多项式模型的火控预测器对横向机动目标提前点的预测性能     

基于改进核极限学习机和集成学习理论的目标机动轨迹预测

为了提高目标轨迹预测的精度以及预测模型的泛化能力,提出基于改进蝙蝠算法优化的核极限学习机(Kernel Extreme Learning Machine,KELM)和集成学习理论目标机动轨迹预测模型。构建KELM模型,并采用改进的蝙蝠算法对KELM的参数进行优化;以优化后的KELM神经网络为弱预测器,结合集成学习算法生成强预测器,通过训练不断优化强预测的结构和参数,得到一种基于集成学习理论的目标机动轨迹预测模型;基于不同规模的样本,将所得预测模型与逆传播神经网络、支持向量机和极限学习机等模型进行对比分析。仿真结果表明:所提目标机动轨迹预测模型具有较好的预测精度和泛化能力。     

基于卡尔曼滤波和模糊数据融合的跟踪算法

在目标跟踪系统中,特别是在复杂背景情况下对地面目标的跟踪中,传统相关算法采用全局搜索的方法,使得计算量相当大,不易实时实现,而且当发生目标局部遮挡时,目标容易丢失.为此,提出一种基于模糊推理和卡尔曼预测器的目标相关跟踪的方法,它充分利用卡尔曼预测器的预测功能来预测下一帧目标可能出现的区域,然后在较小的预测区域中进行相关匹配运算,找到最佳相关匹配点,跟踪更具主动性,同时用模糊推理方法对卡尔曼预测器的参数进行自适应调整,从而可以跟踪各种机动目标.实验中用传统算法和本算法对高速行驶的坦克进行跟踪时,传统算法容易跑飞,而本算法不受遮挡干扰,始终稳定跟踪且耗时大幅减少,且能够跟踪机动速度大幅变化的目标.     

最小二乘滤波在目标跟踪中的应用

根据目标在运动过程中具有轨迹连续性的特点,基于最小二乘法通过设计综合预测器的方法,并结合坐标变换得出目标的预测位置信息。这种方法结合了线性预测器与平方预测器的特点,对于目标跟踪过程中的预测更加贴近,且能减少跟踪算法的计算量;对于实现导弹的稳定跟踪具有一定的应用价值。     

对卡尔曼滤波器应用到雷达跟踪问题的评论

本文的主要目的是阐明标准卡尔曼滤波器和卡尔曼预测器之间的差别。为此,发表了标准卡尔曼滤波器和卡尔曼预测器在雷达跟踪问题中的应用。为了获得跟踪目标的较好的位置和速度精度,这两种标法已被广泛地用在边搜索边跟踪的雷达系统中。两种方法间的性能分析和比较与实际卫星跟踪数据一起已被发表。结果表明对于大机动目标,标准卡尔曼滤波器优于卡尔曼预测器。     

速射火炮闭环校正系统理论及自适应预测器算法

采用闭环火控系统并非一定能够提高开环火控系统的射击精度,因为闭环系统相对开环系统的改善程度受到了误差可预测程度的限制,因此,本文研究了有关随机误差可预测性的机理,并建立一个新的概念——可预测度。为了改善原有的预测器,并使之具有适应性,本文给出了一种新的自适应预测器算法,并与原有预测器进行了仿真比较。     

海上机动目标的运动预测模型及精度分析

分析了海上机动目标的运动特性,针对海上机动目标在某些时间段运动具有一定的规律性,用插值外推法建立了预测其运动的数学模型。并对此模型的精度进行了分析,最后给出了实例。仿真结果表明,本模型能适用于海上机动目标不同的机动方式,算法快捷,具有较强的军事应用价值,模型的计算精度完全满足某新型号导弹的作战要求。     

图像跟踪系统中机动目标预测的实现

针对装甲车上的图像跟踪系统,提出了一种机动目标预测方法.将目标的运动分解为两部分,即全局运动和局部运动,并根据各自的动态特性分别进行预测.以局部运动预测为重点,通过对机动目标跟踪技术的研究,建立起性能优良的跟踪滤波器,并将其扩展到预测滤波器中对目标的未来运动状态进行预测,从而提出了"交互式多模型预测算法".仿真结果表明,该算法具有预测精度高、自适应能力强的特点,同时给出了计算方法.     

基于本体论的战场机动目标表述方法

在信息化条件下的现代战争中,战场机动目标的有效表述成为分析判断战场态势的重要内容。用统一的理论方法与工具建立战场机动目标的完整表述,可以有力地保障与推动其后的战场态势估计与威胁预测。本文提出了利用本体论表述战场机动目标的方法,通过建立相应的本体六要素,将机动兵器目标本身的特征属性与相关军事知识结合起来,用统一的方式表述目标要素及相关要素之间的关系。以A型战斗机为例建立其相应的目标本体,并利用Protégé工具实现了该本体的建立,结果表明利用基于本体的方法表述战场机动目标效果更好,更利于后续工作的开展,初步证实了研究的必要性和可行性,并对后续的研究进行了展望。     

只有角度测量的机动目标非线性预测滤波器设计

提出了一种直接根据信息的机动目标跟踪非线性预测滤波算法,该算法不需要假定目标的机动加速度模型,而将系统的初始状态偏差和机动目标的未知加速度的综合作用结果作为系统的未知输入,利用角度的测量信息直接估计出来。通过对不同机动形式的机动目标进行仿真,结果表明文章所提出的预测滤波算法具有优良的估计性能。     

Refined prediction for linear regression models

Adequate prediction of a response variable using a multiple linear regression model is shown in this article to be related to the presence of multicollinearities among the predictor variables. If strong multicollinearities are present in the data, this information can be used to determine when prediction is likely to be accurate. A region of prediction, R, is proposed as a guide for prediction purposes. This region is related to a prediction interval when the matrix of predictor variables is of full column rank, but it can also be used when the sample is undersized. The Gorman-Toman ten-variable data is used to illustrate the effectiveness of the region R.     

An application of statistical techniques to estimate engineering man-hours on major aircraft programs

Data on 23 lots of various aircraft programs were gathered. Total engineering man-hours, and information on performance, weight, area, avionics systems, data, and schedule were subjected to least squares analysis. An equation is presented which indicates a relationship between total engineering manhours and a set of seven predictor variables. While the equation derived could only be used with confidence by the manufacturer whose data was analyzed, this article should be looked upon as demonstrating a method of data analysis which others may also find useful, not only for predicting engineering manhours in major aircraft programs, but also in other situations where there is an abundance of possible predictor variables, and the problem is to sort out a meaningful subset of these variables. In order to demonstrate the viability of the formula obtained, comparisons were made with various bid programs.     

火箭发动机燃烧室内气体非定常流动数值模拟

应用新的ＰＩＳＯ算法对液体火箭发动机内非定常流动过程进行了数值模拟计算。算法采用一步隐式预测、两步显式校正完成每一时间层计算,而不是通常的多次迭代计算,因而大大缩短计算时间。     

Just How Important Are ‘Hearts and Minds’ Anyway? Counterinsurgency Goes to the Polls

Despite all the talk of ‘hearts and minds’ being the key to counterinsurgency, local public opinion is rarely studied and when it is, it often yields surprising conclusions. Through analyzing polling data from Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan, this article shows that public opinion is less malleable, more of an effect rather than a cause of tactical success, and a poor predictor of strategic victory. As a result, modern counterinsurgency doctrine’s focus on winning popular support may need to be rethought.     

Civil Wars,International Conflicts and Other Determinants of Paramilitary Strength in Sub-Saharan Africa

Previous research on African military spending suggests the existence of civil strife as the best predictor of high levels of military spending. However, little is known about why some African nations maintain strong ‘auxiliary’ or paramilitary organizations while others do not. This study finds that the presence of civil or interstate war does not strengthen reserve or irregular forces. Civilian governments promote strong paramilitary organizations to counter any threat the regular military might pose to regime survivability as a form of clientelist politics.     

Ethnic groups,political exclusion and domestic terrorism

This study examines whether the exclusion of ethnic groups from political power is an important contributing factor to domestic terrorism. To empirically test this question, we employ a negative binomial regression estimation on 130 countries during the period from 1981 to 2005. We find that countries in which certain ethnic populations are excluded from political power are significantly more likely to experience domestic terrorist attacks and to suffer from terrorist casualties; furthermore, ethnic group political exclusion is a more consistent and substantive predictor of domestic terrorist activity than general political repression or economic discrimination.     

非线性系统的神经网络广义预测控制

研究了神经网络广义预测控制方法在非线性系统中的应用，基于BP网络构造神经网络预测器，利用非线性系统的开环输入输出数据离线训练神经网络，根据拟牛顿BFGS优化算法使得二次型性能指标函数达到最小，得到了最优的控制序列。同时给出了神经网络广义预测控制算法的步骤，讨论了提高系统鲁棒性的措施。仿真结果表明，这种神经网络预测控制算法具有响应速度快、控制效果好和跟踪精度高等特点。     

环境参数在线辨识及其在滑翔段制导中的应用

针对助推滑翔导弹,提出基于飞行环境参数在线辨识的滑翔段数值预测校正制导方法。综合考虑大气密度和气动系数对导弹运动的影响,引入滑翔段综合环境参数,利用扩展Kalman滤波方法对综合参数进行在线辨识。基于在线辨识结果,利用渐消记忆递推最小二乘方法在线建立环境参数预测模型,并利用最新辨识结果进行模型的在线修正。设计了纵向和横向制导律,并基于环境参数在线预测模型进行落点预测,以克服飞行环境扰动对落点预测精度的影响。进行了大气密度非定常扰动下的制导仿真,以及密度和气动参数随机扰动下的Monte Carlo仿真。仿真结果表明:环境参数在线预测模型能准确预报飞行环境参数,制导方法对飞行环境扰动具有较强的鲁棒性。