基于贝叶斯网的空天飞行器航天试验风险分析

空天飞行器是世界各军事强国竞相研发的航天装备之一。针对空天飞行器开展航天试验所面临的风险问题,首先对空天飞行器航天试验进行了风险分析,按照试验任务确定风险因素,然后在此基础上建立了BN风险模型,输入相关数据得到了各个试验任务及试验总任务的失败概率,最后对风险因素进行敏感度分析。结果表明,空天飞行器航天试验总任务对试验指挥和在轨试验的任务失败较为敏感。以上工作旨在为空天飞行器开展航天试验提供参考和借鉴。     

航天器研制技术风险分析

介绍了技术风险及其一般分析过程,阐述了高技术研制项目的技术风险随着项目研制进展的变化趋势。研究了常用的技术风险分析技术和模型,基于航天器研制特点,给出了航天器研制技术风险概念,建立了航天器研制技术风险分析模型。     

基于AHP的装备研制项目风险分析方法

把AHP(Analytic H ierarchy Process)方法运用于装备研制项目风险分析,实现了风险因素的排序、系统总风险的评价以及风险响应措施的选择。在风险发生概率和风险损失的基础上,将风险因素的可控制性和用户满意度风险也同时作为风险判断准则,使得风险的评价更合理、更准确地反映项目实际。最后给出了风险因素排序及风险响应措施选择的应用实例。     

航天工程风险分析方法综述

正航天工程技术创新高,模块众多,关联性强,工程失败的社会经济损失巨大,风险特性突出,需要科学方法支持航天工程的技术和管理决策。风险分析方法能够识别工程的各种潜藏风险并对风险大小及损失进行定量化的度量和分析,据此提出减少风险的各种方案,已经成为世界各国航天部门通常采用的一种科学方法。风险分析方法众多,既有定量方法也有定性方法,其中基于数据     

武器系统研制进度风险分析方法研究

首先对大型武器系统研制进度风险分析的一般特点进行了讨论 ,然后根据工期要求紧迫项目的特点 ,利用瑞利分布对进度风险分析的方法进行了研究 ,并结合实例对某系统研制进度风险进行了定量分析     

加强装备竞争性采购廉政风险防控的思考

装备竞争性采购是统筹经济发展和国防建设的重要抓手,加强风险管理是提升装备竞争性采购总体效益的重要保障。从当前纪检态势看,装备竞争性采购是廉政风险集中的重点领域。本文系统梳理了思想道德、制度机制、岗位职责及社会环境等装备竞争性采购过程中可能遇到的廉政风险类型,阐述了竞争性采购项目提出环节、竞争性采购信息发布环节、候选装备承制单位确定环节、竞争性采购实施环节以及合同订立履行阶段等的风险点及其产生原因,针对性地提出了严格计划编报环节管理、扩大采购信息发布范围、规范竞争性采购过程管理以及健全完善评估监督机制等风险防范措施。最后,展望了综合集成专家经验、案例数据和模型算法的定性定量结合分析方法在装备竞争性采购风险分析研究中的应用前景。     

给空中客车穿上国产跑鞋——航天科技集团四院研制飞机刹车盘纪实

炭刹车盘是航天四院充分发挥航天技术优势自主研发成功的,填补了我国民用飞机刹炭车盘制造技术的空白,实现了大型民机炭刹车盘国产化的跨越式发展和我国航天新材料技术拓展应用的历史性突破,为装备我国国产大飞机刹车系统提供了保证。     

基于模糊综合评价模型的武器研制技术风险分析*

针对舰炮武器系统研制的技术特点和风险分布特征,提出了基于模糊综合评价模型的技术风险分析方法,并结合具体风险因素分析了舰炮武器系统研制技术风险评估的指标和准则。介绍了某型大口径舰炮系统的研制风险分析实例,给出了该舰炮系统研制技术风险的评估结果,验证了该方法的可靠性和有效性。     

军队信息化科研项目阶段评估指标体系探究

军队信息化科研项目研发过程分为项目形成、研究开发、现场试验和项目验收四个阶段,每个阶段的评估内容都包括战略、技术、军事价值、资源和风险等五个方面。文章借鉴企业研发项目过程管理评估方法,以现实为基础,提出了军队信息化科研项目阶段评估指标体系框架。     

技术成熟度在国防装备研制项目管理中的应用——以某航天工程为例

国防科技工业具有新技术多、技术难度大、研发周期长、经费投入高等特点,采用先进管理手段,提高装备研发管理水平,是确保国防装备研制项目成功的重要保障。本文介绍技术成熟度的基本概念和内涵,总结其在国内外国防领域的应用情况。以某航天工程为例,论述技术成熟度在该工程中的主要做法和经验,以促进其在装备研制项目管理中的应用和推广。     

An Unlikely Alliance: Portuguese and South African Airpower in Angola, 1968–1974

The war that Portugal was obliged to fight in Africa began in 1961 and immediately stretched the resources of its armed forces. Nowhere was this thinness more apparent than in policing the vast territory of Angola. The east and southeast of Angola were particularly vulnerable, as the area was a vast, sparsely populated region characterised by enormous featureless plains or chanas covered in tall grass and broken by an extensive river system and mountainous forests. The only military solution to policing these immense spaces was aviation and specifically the helicopter that could carry troops into battle, protect them with a gunship and bring them home when the operation was concluded. The immediate problem for the Portuguese Air Force (Força Aérea Portuguesa or FAP) in Angola and elsewhere was a scarcity of helicopters. The solution was an alliance with South Africa, which had a strong inventory of Alouette IIIs, to help in policing the east. This move was likewise in the interest of South Africa, as its threat came from Zambia through south-eastern Angola. This article examines the strategic and tactical development of this unusual, cross-cultural alliance and the symbiotic relationship that resulted in destruction of the enemies of both in Angola.     

国内外结构钢焊条研究的现状与发展

本文主要介绍了国外焊条的现状和发展趋势,包括焊条的高韧性、高效率、低尘低毒和耐吸潮性能,为国内的焊条研究提供了参考依据。     

A Sign of Victory?: ‘Scottish Swords’ and Other Weapons in the Possession of the ‘Auld Innemie’

Many late medieval documents, notably inventories of arms and armour, of Englishmen contain references to ‘Scottish swords’ and other weapons. What did the compilers of these documents mean when they described a weapon as ‘Scottish’? How did such weapons come to be in the possession of these men? This article will attempt to explain this phenomenon drawing on primary documentary sources and surviving material culture from Glasgow Museums’ collections and others, as well as artworks from the period.     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

Cyberpower in Strategic Affairs: Neither Unthinkable nor Blessed

Abstract

This article explores the effect of connectivity on strategic affairs. It argues that the effect on war's character is potentially, although not yet shown in practice, considerably large. Its effect upon the distribution of power among states in the international system is small, contrary to the claims of ‘cyberwar’ alarmists. All told, however, its effect upon strategic affairs is complex. On the one hand, it represents a significant advance in the ‘complexification’ of state strategies, understood in the sense of the production of intended effects. On the other hand, strategists today – still predominantly concerned with the conflicts and confrontations of states and organised military power – are generally missing the power which non-traditional strategic actors, better adapted to the network flows of the information age, are beginning to deploy. These new forms of organization and coercion will challenge the status quo.     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.