机动式保障基地系统防护需求分析

当前，军队工程防护对象以地下工程和野战阵地为主，对于设施设备及军事活动以地表为主的机动式保障基地系统，其毁伤特点规律、防护威胁、评估方法及防护标准等尚无专门研究。本文介绍了机动式保障基地系统的基本概念、主要功能及构成要素，研究了近年来典型军事基地遇袭案例，采用案例分析与数据库研究相结合的方法，分析了机动式保障基地系统的主要威胁及其毁伤元和毁伤评估量，并提出机动式保障基地系统防护需求的构建原则和评估步骤。根据建立的原则和步骤，建立5级防护需求等级，以海外维和基地为例，分析了基地内各类保障装备的防护等级需求和防护等级设置的主要依据，为开展机动式保障基地系统防护体系研究打下基础。     

面向远火面压制的阵地体系生存效能评估

为满足阵地战时毁伤规律研究需要,以阵地体系为研究对象,从系统的角度出发,探究阵地体系目标生存效能与物理毁伤的映射关系,构建阵地体系生存效能评估模型,并运用蒙特卡洛方法实现阵地目标毁伤模拟,给阵地体系目标的毁伤量化评估与防护决策提供了依据.     

基于马氏链的反辐射导弹毁伤雷达概率分析

为了研究反辐射导弹(ARM)对雷达阵地连续攻击时的作战效能,提出采用马尔可夫链进行分析.该方法是在单发反辐射导弹对雷达的毁伤概率基础上,依据ARM连续攻击时阵地中雷达工作状态的变化,得到了ARM对雷达阵地的毁伤概率数学模型.同时,运用马尔可夫链的性质对所建立的模型进行了深入分析,并通过实例检验了该模型的有效性.     

火箭子母弹对行进中炮兵连射击的毁伤概率

炮兵实施机动是提高其生存能力与作战能力的重要手段之一,而从集结地域至待机阵地机动阶段由于距离对方近、暴露时间长,是对方毁伤火力种类最为丰富和威胁最大的阶段.以行进中的自行与牵引炮兵连为研究对象,分析了该阶段火箭子母弹攻击时的毁伤概率,计算了相应条件下的毁伤概率值,描述了毁伤概率与航路角、行进速度之间的基本关系和变化规律.     

多轴特种车辆轮胎系统抗毁伤能力等毁线表征方法

为了探究战场威胁下多轴特种车辆轮胎系统的生存概率,对轮胎系统的抗毁伤能力进行量化表征,提出了一种基于等毁线的轮胎系统抗毁伤能力表征方法。针对轮胎毁伤状态下对整车的影响,基于车辆动力学对轮胎系统的力学特性进行量化表征,建立了轮胎系统功能毁伤的计算模型;采用毁伤理论对冲击波超压场进行弹目交会和量化分析,建立了轮胎系统物理毁伤的计算模型;根据爆心与车辆的位置关系,采用面向车辆全面域的计算特征线,建立了轮胎系统等毁线计算模型。以某型五轴特种车辆为例,进行了表征方法验证。研究结果表明:该表征方法可应用于战场威胁下多轴特种车辆轮胎系统的抗毁伤能力表征,为后续机动规避和防护能力提升奠定模型基础。     

防护工程功能毁伤评估模型研究

目前，防护工程功能毁伤评估模型在全面性和系统性上都存在不足。为解决这一问题，本文采用层次分析思想对防护工程各层级关系进行了梳理，构建了一种物理毁伤与功能毁伤相结合的函数关系，并在功能关系基础上，采用毁伤树模型研究了子系统及目标系统功能毁伤计算方法。通过对孔口防护设备功能毁伤、口部防护系统功能毁伤以及工事出入口功能毁伤等具体问题的分析，阐述了目标系统功能毁伤评估模型的建立方法。该方法在防护工程升级改造的指导中得到了成功的应用，为量化描述系统功能性毁伤奠定了基础。     

海岸线上“千里眼”——海岸监视系统

除了从海上发动的侵略之外,来自海上的恐怖主义、海盗、走私、非法移民等非法活动的威胁也变得越来越严峻。对于濒海国家来说,完善的海岸监视和防御系统正变得日益重要,成为海岸线上不可缺少的“眼睛”和“耳朵”。高科技的发展,使得现代海岸监视手段已不再是传统的观测塔,而是向着高技术、多平台、多手段和多层次的方向发展。形形色色的海岸监视雷达海岸监视雷达一般采用短脉冲、窄波束,配备高增益的天线,以提高系统的远距离监视灵敏度和辨别率,并利用圆极化和双频段工作模式克服恶劣天气和复杂环境的影响。海岸监视雷达经常与敌我识别装置…     

基于证据理论的常规导弹阵地生存防护研究

着眼于阵地生存防护对策分析中的不确定性,提出了一种基于证据理论判别来袭武器类型的方法,通过对武器威胁度的评估,建立了来袭武器威胁等级判据,构建了详细的生存对策,可为常规导弹阵地生存防护决策提供有效的辅助支持.     

基于赋色Petri网的反辐射导弹对雷达毁伤效率评估建模

针对反辐射导弹对雷达毁伤效率评估过程中,存在的评估结果不稳定问题,基于赋色Petri网构建了雷达毁伤效率评估模型。采用ZigBee协议构建赋色Petri网,并建立反辐射导弹对雷达毁伤效率参数分析模型。提取反辐射导弹对雷达毁伤评估统计特征量,采用反演特征分析方法,构建雷达毁伤效率大数据分析模型,并结合大数据参数融合和特征分析结果,求解反辐射导弹对雷达毁伤效率评估模型,将输出的评估信息传输至Web界面,实现反辐射导弹对雷达毁伤效率自动化评估。测试结果表明,采用该方法进行反辐射导弹对雷达毁伤效率评估建模的可靠性较高,评估效能较好。     

基于毁伤概率的反钻地弹火炮阵地优化配置研究

针对地面火炮武器末端拦截大壁厚钻地弹的作战需求,在对火炮武器系统拦截钻地弹毁伤概率多种影响因素计算分析的基础上,提出了基于拦截毁伤概率计算的火炮数量和部署位置的优化方法,给出了典型的火炮阵地部署方式和相对防护点的部署半径建议,可为反钻地弹火炮武器系统的论证和设计提供技术参考。     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.     

Helping hands: external support for the KNU insurgency in Burma

This article analyses to what extent the Burmese KNU insurgency made use of external support from states, refugees, and diasporas. Based on extensive fieldwork it is concluded that support from neighbouring states and refugees has for years kept the Karen rebellion alive. Western countries perceived forms of resistance to the illegitimate Burmese regime as just and have therefore played a crucial role in the continuation of conflict in Karen State. It is important that policymakers and donors as well as executing organizations continue to reflect critically on the way they exercise their work.     

基于GTST-DMLD-ESD的装备RMS建模仿真

装备的RMS是装备的重要设计参数,是影响战备完好和保障能力的关键因素.引入GTST-DMLD作为主要建模工具,建立起装备系统的RMS描述模型,以ESD为补充和扩展,对维修过程进行建模.并以GTST-DMLD-ESD模型作为装备RMS仿真的核心,对装备RMS仿真模型的总体框架进行了研究,并对各模块进行了较为详细的探讨.     

Cyber sheiks and grassroots jihadis: the war in Syria and the devolution of the Bosnian Salafi communities

ABSTRACT

What was the scope of the Bosnian jihadi participation in the war in Syria? Did the Bosnian volunteers tend to join one particular faction? Why did the Bosnian youngsters decide to join the holy war in the Levant? Was this an organized and hierarchical process or was this a grassroots movement? Last, were all the Salafis in Bosnia supportive of this dynamic or did this process cause internal frictions? These are some of the questions that this research will try to answer.     

Country survey XVI the defence sector in the economy of a declining superpower: Soviet Union and Russia, 1965-2001

The Soviet Union was able to develop a large military-industrial complex and become the world's second superpower despite deficiencies in its centrally planned economy because defence was given high priority status and special planning, rationing and administrative mechanisms were used to attain national security objectives. However, in the period 1976-85 the effectiveness of priority protection diminished and defence institutions experienced more of the problems typical of the shortage economic system. The heavy defence burden also created growing difficulties for the civilian economy. The attempts by the Gorbachev government to reform the defence sector and improve defence-economic relationships during perestroika (1985-91) uniformly failed. For most of the transition period, the Russian military-industrial complex has been adversely affected by its low priority status, cuts in defence spending, instability of the hybrid politico-economic system, and negative growth of the economy. The armed forces and defence industry have been reduced in size and their outputs of military services and equipment have fallen to low levels. Nevertheless, the Russian armed forces still have over one million troops, significant stocks of sophisticated conventional weapons, and a large nuclear arsenal. The government of President Putin has raised the priority of the defence sector, increased real defence spending, and adopted ambitious plans to revive Russian military power. It is likely, though, that tight resource constraints will hamper efforts to reform the armed forces and to upgrade weapons. By 2010 Russia will be an important, but not dominant, military power in Eurasia.     

Traffickers,terrorists, and a ‘new security challenge’: Russian counternarcotics strategy and the Federal Service for the Control of the Drugs Trade

The collapse of the Soviet Union precipitated the massive expansion of drug use and trade in Russia. The country now has one of the largest populations of injecting drug users in the world and has become the largest single-country market for Afghan heroin. In 2003 the Federal Service for the Control of the Drugs Trade was created to coordinate a comprehensive counternarcotics strategy appropriate to the scale of this threat. The service continues to face a number of challenges in its early stages of development. However, it has made considerable advances in improving responses to large-scale organised crime and in building international cooperation.